DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
Click image for full-sized chart.
Thanks. - Craig
Shorting has a function: bursting bubbles before they get too large. Imperfect instrument, but shorts who guess wrong can suffer large losses, so it's generally not done out of pettiness or malice. Too expensive!
So the race is on! Will we see VIN 24,000 on or before September 30th?
Vin on approx. Aug 24 Pick up at factory Sept. 25 Car could have been picked up 9/21
21806 around Sept 1
Oops. Vin number 21002 8/24 or 25
European Sales seem to go pretty well! Waiting times between reservation and delivery are up to about 5-6 month again (was 3-4 month in August) in Germany, Switzerland and Austria. Tesla got a lot of new public and buyers attention through the IAA (International Auto Fair in Frankfurt)...
8/28/13 I think
Excellent. Thanks to all US and European buyers for posting their VINs. Keep them coming. Thanks
Help keep cfOH's chart current/relevant. There have been many posts over at TMC about a surge of month end deliveries. There has to be more new VINs out there. Thanks
It would be nice to see VIN 24,000 being posted here in Q3 2013 (before October 1st, 2013).
About Sept 12 22017
Congratulations Shawnotto. Keep those VINs coming. Thanks
Vin 22509 About 9th Sep 2013
Vin 22412 Sep 7
Vin 22870 Sept 11
Gottig, etgp and torgeira....Thank you.
OK, you may have noticed something new about the chart. Since the VIN assignment rates (red dots) are clearly not following anything close to a linear path anymore, I decided to break the old trendline and start a new one. These two trendlines use the columns labeled "2-mo. Rate A" (old trendline) and "2-mo. Rate A" (new trendline). The old trendline will remain static and the new trendline will be updated to reflect new VIN assignment rates over time...at least until there's reason to break the line again. If the VIN assignment rate is all over the place (technically speaking) and a trendline stops making sense, I'll remove them and just go back to a scatterplot without trendlines. Questions?
Ordered S85 on 9/12, confirmed 10 minutes later. VIN today, 23833
Can we do 167 before Sept 30th and get to VIN 24000?
Craig, I want to thank you for organizing the VIN data. The summary makes it easy to see what is going on and to look up specific numbers. I suppose it is time for me to describe how I analyze this data.
In an ideal world, Tesla would generate VINs sequentially, not skipping any numbers. Granted batching in production would shuffle things around a bit, but on balance over long enough stretches of time the pace of VIN creation would track with vehicle production. What one would like to know then is what was the last VIN created each day, and one could difference this series to get the daily number of VINs issued. The data on hand however is not complete (we do not know what was the last VIN on any given day), and there may be a process lag from when a VIN is first generated and when it is communicated to the customer. Moreover, there are voluntary customer reporting lags. So even if Tesla is sequentially issuing VINs with no gaps, our data on hand cannot give us a pristine view into that process.
Even so the customer reported data is not without merit. I think it is quite useful even if it is incomplete and is subject to some distortions about dates. While we may not know the last VIN issued on each date, we may approximate it as follows. Compute the cumulative max VIN for each date. Drop all VINs strictly less than the cumulative max VIN. If there is not VIN equal to the cumulative max VIN on a given date, one can interpolate between retained VINs. Let's call this interpolated series the cumulative VIN series. It is in fact an estimate of the last daily VIN series. The cumulative VIN series can be plotted as line along with all the other observations. All observations will lie one or below this line. The ones strictly below at least serve to validate the absence of substantial gaps. For example, there appears to be a gap from about 19150 to 19500. We cannot rule out that Tesla may have skipped some 350 VINs, but had there been a couple of observation in that range we could falsify that hypothesis. So all observations are helpful, but only the ones that advance the cumulative VIN series are needed for my estimation procedure.
Given the noise in the cumulative VIN series, it is best not to difference it daily or other short intervals. Two week differences or longer seem reasonable to me. Here's an example of a calculation. Suppose I want the weekly after for the four weeks ending 8/27. On 8/27 the max VIN was 21464. Now I need the max VIN for 7/30, but only have VINs on 7/29 and 7/31. Taking the average of max VIN s on those dates, I.e., interpolating, I get 18555. Differencing, I get 2909, but excluding the 350 gap leaves about 2560 over 28 days. The average weekly rate then is 640.
Two-week ending. Weekly rate. 8/13. 638 8/27. 641 9/9. 542 9/23. 500
There does appear to be a slow down in the end of the month. I suspect that in August there was a push to issue lots of VIN and perhaps prioritize batches for maximal delivery in Q3. This would explain the spread of VINs that came in well below the cumulative VIN curve. Perhaps not only were cars batched for production, but also communication to customers may have been delayed accordingly so as not to raise expectations of quick turnaround. Whatever the case, the slow down in VINs in September need not indicate that physical production has declined, but merely that production may be catching up with aggressive VIN issuances in August. That is after the easily expedited batches are rolled out, the odds and ends need also be done. If this interpretation is correct, then we may likely see the pace of VINs pick up again. If we had a longer time series to analyze we may discover some intra-quarter seasonality and other patterns that can help us better understand VIN generation, car production, and ultimate deliveries.
All the best to those who have a passion for VIN statistics!
Finalized 15. august, europe
Vin number recived today btw
Craig, It is clear that Elon is trying to hide the production rate.
I want to put you at rest and all the other investors. Elon mentioned that it is cheep to ship to China since containers come fully load to the USA and return empty and thus he fills them.
He also mentioned that he intends to open a factory in the EU and two more in the US. All this indicates a very healthy demand. This is what counts most.
At any rate the Q3 is almost there and we will hear what Elon wants us to hear.
VIN 23753 23sep Finalized 13aug, Norway
VIN 23844 got it today 24/9-2013 finalized 15/9-2013, Norway
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