DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
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Thanks. - Craig
I don't think Elon is trying to hide anything... he said he wants to be at 800 at the end of the year. Earlier in the year there was a report that for August TM raised the order of frunk liners to 650 - that is exactly were he is now. Stabilizing the rate at 650 now is not unexpected... you can not push, push, push... we'll see when he goes for 800 later in the year.
24185 today Norway
If you try to extrapolate the weekly VIN assignment rate directly into a weekly build rate, you will cause yourself heartburn. The problem is that European cars need to have VIN's assigned well in advance of production, while the North American cars are scheduled into production almost immediately. I assume the long lead time for EU cars is necessary to manage parts inventories and optimize logistics.
I don't see any obvious gaps in the VIN sequence. Although this data set is missing VIN's between 19130 and 19500, there are about 12 reported in this range in the TMC EU Deliveries spreadsheet. The only VIN gaps that I've seen for sure were after the US Signatures and after the Canadian Signatures.
So when you see weekly VIN assignment rates pushing 700, you have to know that it's just a block of EU cars being pre-assigned. The actual factory build rate has got to be closer to 600. And as my Aussie friends would say, "No worries, mate. She'll be right."
Can you please attach a link to the EU Deliveries spreadsheet/thread?
Here's the link to the EU spreadsheet. Hopefully it will work. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkhbjTlSwONrdEdXaWJNXzZqV1Z...
Out of curiosity, looking at the EUDelivery sheet and also the map I found on TMC of reservation holders there are a lot of people with P#### or S### where I get that the S### were the signatures, but currently I don't see that I got a sequence number. I have the internal RN number and that's it. I guess I'll get a VIN assigned at some point, but did the sequence numbers only happen for serious pre-orders before the car started shipping and configuration was made available or what's with that?
RN# is just an assigned reservation # when you put down your deposit. It has no bearing on when your car will be produced.
RN# will be replaced by the VIN# when the design is confirmed and finalized. If you're in the EU, then there'll be quite a few weeks of silence until you're invited to confirm your design.
VIN# assignment will be your first glimmer of hope that you're getting much closer to factory receiving your order.
Tesla quit assigning reservation numbers for EU customers back in early June. After that date, you are given an order number. They did the same thing in North America near the end of February.
New target: VIN 25,000 Will it be posted during next week?
@Benz... should be a breeze at this rate
cfOH, can you start a thread with vin#, delivery date, and country (state if US)? I'm wondering if Tableau software can produce some interesting insight... or you tried already or it doesn't interest you? this thread is one of the best by the way. Thank you.
24176 - 9/24
Holy moley! What an asplosion of VINs! ;-D
Apparently, Tesla has a single guy sitting at a computer issuing VINs and he was working only part-time last week; today he caught up.
And yes, I'm kidding about that.
I'm guessing Tesla has end-of-quarter-itis and is pumping out all the VINs it can for whatever stat it helps come reporting time.
@JMH: If I understand the method you're using, I think it underutilizes the data we have and relies too much on data (observations) that happen to be at the end-points of the period you're using to get a rate. What I like about regression methods is that they use ALL the data and don't give undo weight to any one period (either long ago or more recently). I think that's why the 2-month rate estimate is pretty stable...it uses a LOT of data to get the estimate. Of course, the downside is that it'll be slow to show a dramatic shift (either up or down), but then I don't think a chart will tell us something important has happened sooner than news reports will.
Thank you Craig! Your VIN tracking is one of my favorite TM forum threads.
I wonder if Tesla has hit a production rate plateau at around 660/week due to a supplier or factory constraint?
Yes I understand your point. Regression should give you an unbiased and fairly robust estimates. In fact both methods yield about the same rate when applied to the full two month range. So there is not much difference either way, except my approach can detect changes in rate. My approach was also motivated to try to make sense of a reasonable error structure, and differencing is one standard way to arrive at less correlated errors in case one is interest in time series modeling. Sure you can throw all the data into a regression model but with all the dependency of observations, you're not really gaining much information in the statistical sense and your standard errors of estimation will be severely underestimated. Even so, as I said your estimates of rates are probably not terribly biased which should suffice for the purpose at hand. I do wonder if you have tried adding a quadratic term or using some sort of smoother like loess or splines. Doing so would give you a way to estimate changes in rate by differentiating the quadratic fit or differencing the smoother fit.
On a data analytic note, it does appear that Tesla generate VINs in batches and works them through in production. This is pretty apparent in the last two days. I've done some closer analysis of day to day changes in cumulative VIN and have seen this quite a bit. There are days where the cumulative VIN surges ahead followed by a longer stretch with very modest gains if any at all, a pattern consistent with generating a block and spreading it out randomly over several days. It may be possible to try to reconstruct these blocks. That is if the gain in max VINs is slight, it may be reasonable to attribute VINs on that day to an earlier block when it was first generated, but before it was communicated to the customer. The point of such an exercise would be to gain some insight into how Tesla is operation which could aid in a better appreciation of VIN data. So with this most recent block of VINs what we should look for is how they work through that batch and when will they need another block.
Finally, it would be helpful to do a gap analysis of VINs. Basically sort all the VINs in numerical order and compute differences. If we truly have a random sample of all VINs with no gaps, then the differences will have a geometric distribution. Large departures, then, provide evidence contrary to our null hypothesis and suggest that VINs have in fact been skipped. Gaps above a certain critical threshold can be identified and potentially subtracted out of our estimates of rates. Also it is possible to bencmark VIN rates against reported deliveries to show the gaps are negligible over the span of a quarter. Gaps are perhaps the biggest threat to the credibility of VIN data. So doing a proper analysis of this issue and making informed adjustments may be the best way to shore up credibility. (Is there a more complete dataset available online?)
Well the analysis JHM and cfOH are discussing is WAY above my pay grade. But I encourage you to continue to post VINs and the VIN assignment dates. Thanks
Not sure we can make it to 25,000 by the end of September...may be close.
JHM: I could do a more sophisticated analysis, but, frankly, the data aren't good enough to warrant it. If I had 3 or 4 times more VINs, I might start worrying about the distribution of residuals and other statistical minutiae, but with these rather meager data "crumbs" we're getting, anything fancier than OLS regression is probably just putting lipstick on a pig (to be technical ;-). And no, I don't think more complex or higher-order forms would be particularly useful, if even appropriate, because the phenomenon we're mapping out is rationally controlled by people, not exhibiting some natural process where we're trying to maximize the predictive caapabilities. Heck, if I wanted to do that, I'd start looking at something really fancy like spline methods. And wouldn't THAT be a waste of time. ;-D
@craig (time to Channel Brian H, in a good way) - "data aren't good " - wow! Someone who uses 'data' as a plural noun! A rare sight to behold. Kudos.
Tesla assigns RN #'s (reservation number). I got one in July before the VIN. So they still do it.
One physical constraint: I believe the frames must be stamped with the VIN before going thru the Paint Center. So fundamental "issuance" is not done in arbitrary blocks.
cfOH; What's your explanation for the collapse of the numbers for a while recently?
Could it be China?
Time for more VINs and a bump.
@nickjhowe: How else would you say it?? ;-)
@Brian H: I posted earlier in this thread (see third comment on page 1) my thoughts on why I think the rates had leveled off. But, honestly, they're just guesses.
Also, I'm pretty sure VINs are mostly issued sequentially -- first-ordered-first-issued -- but production batching then starts to generate out-of-sequence deliveries. Plus the whole EU regulation/shipping/inspection stuff further delays individual cars from getting to their owners. That's one of the reasons I don't even try to track actual deliveries...way too messy.
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