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Thanks. - Craig
Craig.....I confess that I can not follow the gap analysis graph. When you get some time can you do a paragraph entitled
'Gap Analysis Gap Reading for Dummies' ? Thanks Al
I just want to say that I appreciate and respect the fact that JHM has presented his apology to Craig, and that Craig's reaction was: "no worries". That's the way to do it. We all can make mistakes.
@Al: Sorry about that. :-) That "gap graph" shows the gaps between subsequent VINs sorted from largest gap to smallest gap, left to right. The smallest gap possible would be 1, which occurs when sequential VINs (e.g., 16765 and 16766) are in the database. The gaps follow a pretty clean distribution (i.e., there aren't any really huge gaps and most of them are small) suggesting that the gaps are, indeed, random (a result of our unscientific sampling approach) and not the result of Tesla manipulating the VINs by skipping blocks of them in some systematic way. Make sense?
VIN gaps can also be from bulk oders which are not reported by somebody I know of somebody (EU) who ordered 100 Model S. He will recieve his cars ahead of others etc. maybe that is some explanation
cfOH: Thanks. Got it.
@Norbert.Vienna - EU order for a 100 MS? Is this from a big leasing company or a rental outfit? That's a cool 10 millions Euro ( a drop in the bucket) for the average billionaire...
150 Cars Athlon Car Lease / Netherlands. Is this order delivered yet?
VIN 24707 just appeared today. I checked last night and it was not there.
Confirmed all of my options on 9/16, so it was exactly 2 weeks till the VIN appeared.
S 85, green with tan leather, tech package, rear jump seats, parking sensors, etc, etc.
It would make sense, but I am not convinced they would issue the VIN’s in one block. It would take like 3 days of productions. They don’t necessarily deliver the 150 cars at once. Therefore they don’t necessarily issue the VIN’s one after the other.
But if so, it would explain some gaps.
Regarding VIN gaps and clusters, I seem to recall that when cars were first being produced, TM reserved a block of VINs for their demo cars. The demos started at P01201, and the block was around 200 (I don't remember precisely). Other production cars were sequenced below P01201 and above P01400. Although the demo cars had VINs in a cluster, they were not produced in a cluster, and thus some cars were produced out of sequence. Here is a thread that talks about it a bit, but others may have a better memory of these issues:
It. is a leasing Company
24990 issued 9/30. Ordered 9/12. Scheduled completion 10/21.
Woo! I think it is safe to say that Tesla passed the VIN #25,000 during Q3.
Probably close to 20,000 Model S's on the roads at this moment.
24702 issued 9/30/2103. Confirmed on 9/27/2013. Ordered 9/14/2013. Scheduled late November Delivery
S 85, blue with grey leather carbon fiber, tech package, air suspension, parking sensors
Thats 1500 VINs in 7 days...wow
The chart now reflects end-of-quarter numbers. Needless to say, it seems VERY likely that Tesla will have had no problem exceeding its projected production, as VIN assignments/sales have been incredibly healthy the past 3 months.
Some stats for quarter ending 9/30/13, based on these data: • Lowest VIN reported during quarter: 16398 (7/1/13) • Highest VIN reported during quarter: 24990 (9/30/13) • Overall estimated daily VIN assignment rate: 93.7 VINs/day - For the quarter, that would mean an estimated 8,620 VINs • Monthly VIN assignment rates: - July = 70.0 per day / 2170 per month - August = 87.9 per day / 2725 per month - September = 101.8 per day / 3054 per month
Remember that these are NEITHER sales numbers NOR production volume, but rather VIN assignments...an intermediate step between sales and production, and one that includes internal production (units scheduled for production for Tesla's own use). So, sales and production will be a little lower than these figures and actual delivery to customers lower still (and delayed until production completes and the car is transported to its destination).
But, even with those caveats, I don't see how anyone can spin these numbers into any kind of negative story. But I'm sure some short on Seeking Alpha or Motley Fool will try his best. ;-)
Thanks Craig for all your time and effort to make the chart and keeping it up to date.
Why doesn't Tesla release monthly sale numbers just like other auto manufactures? Why did they stop posting backlog?
I think Tesla is playing games with buddies at Wall Street.
You can hire few persons for few thousands to sit outside of Tesla factory and count how many cars leave or you can rent a mole inside (lot of line workers just paid in higher teens).
You can also look via shipping records how many cars are leaving US. There are lot of ways to find all that info if some one is determined and guys who have inverted tens of million $$ are very determined and they already know it. They don't need these VIN numbers just like small guys like us.
This game won't end good. Apple didn't survive Wall St when they were making 40 billion $ in profit every year. They took nflx from 310 to 60 and back to 320. They took CMG from 440 to 240 to 420. When tide turns, you don't wanna be a bag holder.
Baron Rothschild once said, "I made my fortune by selling too early."
@mna123 - why should Tesla waste time with that kind of crap. I want Tesla to build cars - period. Quarterly reporting is sufficient.
@kleist: It is not crap, it is industry standard and tesla is a public company. They need to be transparent to their investors.
But then I don't expect them to be honest any way. Just a week ago before secondary in May, Elon said they don't need any any money. Same shit was said when first secondary was offered in November and same shit will be said when they offer another secondary at anme of Gen III.
24927 issued 9/30/13
October 1st, 2013 ( 10/1/13 )
Yeehaw! (Sorry :-)
They are reporting quarterly numbers as is necessary for a public company. For a developing company still undergoing constant changes the monthly data may have too much noise or be too distracting on management from their longer term goals. And, there are actually rules against hinting at those transactions before they are cleared to be publicly disclosed.
Personally I prefer they continue to focus more on building the company than to appease short term investors. If you feel you are uncomfortable with the transparency of Tesla's management, feel free to invest in a different company.
What mna123 is saying is that because of the quarterly numbers style of reporting and the inability to really judge the company short-term, the large walk-up in share volume done in Q3 with all sorts of interest in things like the convertible senior notes, the strike prices, the warrants and all sorts of wall-street "sugar" involved in this quarter seems orchestrated. The company is under the microscope - and the less information given, the more room wall street underwriters and insiders can make off this quarter. The reset happens in early November.
In the mean time - things like this Vin chart were used by analysts to do upgrades (DB, others). When a company issues Clean Vin #s to cause a gap, as Craig inferred, to start a change in the production line, they don't call analysts to report that. The Vin #s seem to be generating some level if exuberance.
What is made available is the weekly build rate on factory-floor whiteboards that people who own teslas can see when they tour the factory. Analysts are also given such build numbers as were people at Teslive who were shown Q2 build numbers of appx. 5400 or so. This "slipping of information" does not indicate sales but does indicate selective number sharing to select non-public entities.
Good luck to Tesla but mna123 indicates that the company and other underwriter companies on wall street are able to utilize its recent stellar rise to their advantage and retail investors who are not long with the stock and along for the ride are not able to invest with proper financial guidance according to proper corporate valuation in a capital-intensive industry like the Automotive industry. He is saying "tell us more so it can smooth out the volatility with facts".
As Musk says "we are not really in the business of making a profit, we are making sustainable transportation". Or something like that. I am very sure that when the Sr. Notes were written up to pay the DoE loan off, the underwriters knew what they could do with this. Well, a non-GAAP profitable company should not have a valuation as some see TSLA to have an investors on both sides of the trade are still wondering what comes next. Retail investors have to think twice and eepic gives a good directive - invest in something else which is more transparent. (actually, finding a truly transparent company is hard to do these days - we have no idea what GM is building next year but TSLA at least showed its cards about it thinks it may do in the future)
Win 24902 Issued 1.10.2013 No delivery date yet.
September VIN rate was 3,054, meaning yearly rate of 36,648. Meanwhile, last week rate was was nearly 1,000 VINs or 50,000/year. It is quite possible that next year Tesla could produce 50,000 MS. I think that supercharger and geographic expansion can sustain the demand. Tesla will have to continue adding value to the car with new features like smart cruise control, collision avoidance and even offer higher capacity batteries (150+ KW-hr). Offer AWD, etc to address those markets.
Model X bookings are lagging. I am wondering if that has anything to do with the falcon doors? Or limited range?
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