DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
Click image for full-sized chart.
Thanks. - Craig
Confirmed 20.09.13 Changed to P: 24.09.13 VIN assigned: 4.10.13 VIN: 25252
Hehe, just now noticed, nice VIN :D
Oct 2 25008
Jim M, firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com Provo, UT S model w/85 kwh option VIN **-21942 issued 09/24/13
Not a lot of data this week.
Looks like Elon's going to have a November surprise in the Q3 letter/conf call... random VINs are up there...
Thank you for posting VINS. Please continue
Chart updated. I made one small change: I changed the "1 week" VIN assignment rate estimate to "2 weeks". This is because the 1-week estimate is just far too noisy to be useful. It's been fluctuating from as low as ~400 cars per week to almost 1,000 cars per week, and it seems unlikely that Tesla is actually seeing that kind of variability. More likely, those numbers are simply the result of relying on very few data points, especially over the few days immediately prior to each update...we often don't see a bunch of VINs from that day or the day before because they build up over time as people post them. A 2-week rate seems more stable while still offering a more responsive estimate of Tesla's VIN assignment rate.
Also, someone emailed me and requested another plot. Should I post it here or make a new thread? It's not one I plan on updating regularly...just a one-off chart. Preferences? If none, I'll just add it to this thread.
I suggest adding it to your thread. Thanks for all your work on this - a lot of fun watching the chart.
OK, so here's a historical chart of all my VIN data. It includes the usual linear trendline (light blue) as well as a 2nd-order polynomial trendline (orange). Since we're looking at 5 months of data, the use of a polynomial seems reasonable; normally, with just 2 months of history, a linear approximation is adequately accurate IMO.
Click image to show full-sized chart.
I won't be updating this on a regular basis...maybe in another 5 months. ;-)
new day ... bump
Fred and Benz...my turn to bump
The data seem to suggest that either Tesla has largely stopped issuing VINs on weekends, or else new buyers don't check their My Tesla pages on the weekends, as we usually get VERY few VINs posted on Saturdays and Sundays.
Maybe just bump it Monday morning?
It is almost 11pm EST on Sunday...It is Monday in Europe cfOH...so time to bump!
11298 may 14 2013 Got the email at 7:24 pm. california
to fill in the early days... the bottom end of your poly curve points the wrong way for this point, maybe the linear is better.
Yes, it's Monday. Now we can start to bump this thread back to the top again. Here we go.
P85+ 26.09.13 24573
Monday morning Bump.
Monday PM (EST) bump.
bump bump bump ... Ihr Spackos )
FYI for shareholders - James Chanos, the infamous short seller, just hinted at a position on TSLA.
His frim's name, Kynikos, is the greek word for cynic...
Nothing the shorts say or do at this stage is going to hurt Tesla. The company has the cash need to fund ModelX production, supercharger network, sales/service worldwide. Production could hit 50,000 Model S next year. In 2014 Tesla could product 100,000 Model S+X. Enough to fund Gen3 production.
Short did help the fund the last round capital raise.
GBoar on TMC reported: P25308 Sourcing parts Test drive 9/27( in NYC) Confirmed 10/6 Delivery late November
it was 7th of October at the time in NYC.
Please post your newly assigned VINs, folks...we need the data. At least a couple each day would be great. Thanks.
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