DO NOT POST YOUR VIN HERE -- THIS THREAD HAS BEEN DEPRECATED
The new VIN tracking thread is here: NEW BUYERS: Please post your VIN here
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Thanks. - Craig
I wanted to explain why having lots of VINs helps, since I think some people believe all we need are the first and last VINs during a period to calculate the rate (which isn't true).
I made up a fake set of VIN data to illustrate my point, consisting of 10 VINs assigned each day over 10 days:
Click on image to expand
On the left are 5 columns: A) The date the VIN was issued B) The VIN (what the data would be if we had 100% of VINs reported) C) VINmiss80 -- an 80% chance of the VIN being missing D) VINmiss50 -- a 50% chance of the VIN being missing E) VINmiss20 -- a 20% chance of the VIN being missing
Columns C-E were just generated using Excel's RAND() function...nothing fancy.
Now, notice in the graphs. On the VINall graph, the slope of the estimated trendline is 10...exactly what our actual VIN assignment is.
On VINmiss80, however, the missing data force that slope estimate to be off...it's 9.57, or 4.3% off.
On VINmiss50, we're missing fewer data (approximately half) and the slope estimate is a little closer to 10.
And on VINmiss20, it's very close, since we're only missing about 20% of the VINs.
Now, in our Tesla VIN database, we only maybe 2 to 3 percent of all VINs issued, so our data are not very rich. Thankfully, we still get 1+ each day typically and we're not trying to get a slope over a really short period of time, both of which help our confidence in our estimates.
Anyway, I thought some might find that helpful.
Pedantically yours, - Craig
You might want to parse through this: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/21988-November-Late-November-delivery-(2013)-VINs
should have a bunch.
I think a smaller percentage of buyers will read the forum as the consumer base shifts from early adopters to “more” regular car buyers and it’s going to be more and more difficult to get VIN’s.
Fred...I suspect you are correct.
September 30th - VIN# 24,923
VIN 25641 Order Placed: 09/23/2013 Order Confirmed: 09/24/2013 VIN Assigned: 10/08/2013
Ordered 9/22 Confirmed 10/1 VIN#25730 assigned on 10/8
CHIPPER writes: Just got my VIN today (10/8/13) P25619
Finally! Ordered Sept 26. Received VIN today! Last 5 of VIN: 25625
We have a VIN!
It showed up today 10/8/2013.
I first ordered on 9/28, confirmed on 9/29. Still showing delivery for late November.
Thanks to all for posting your VINS. Seems a bunch were just released. It appears by the late November delivery dates that TM is concentrating on European production right now.
25610 showed up today 10/8/2013
Ordered/Confirmed 9/23, scheduled for late-November delivery.
Excellent. Seems the factory is up and running.
I wonder if TSLA is setting up to shut down the line for an employee holiday break in Decemberif they hit there year end goal early ...
Vin #24763 9/30/13
well forget what I said...
Thanks for all the new VINs, folks. Please share the word and get as many as possible posted here. The quality of the projections depends on the accuracy and completeness of the VINs that get submitted.
Ordered 10/7 Confirmed 10/9
Estimated delivery Late December
Thanks for the VINs
Our VIN was assigned today, October 9, 2013. The last 5 digits are 25786. The expected delivery date is December 6 :(, I was hoping for sooner. We signed the agreement on Sept. 26, and confirmed the order the next day.
Here is the information on our model S: 85, metallic green Vin = 21557, issued 9/13/2013
22387 sept 7, 2013
cao; Last year, they worked right thru Xmas and New Year and then got a week or two off.
Thanks for all the VINs. Seems TM is issuing them again at an increased rate.
Order confirmed Sept 25 Noticed VIN on dashboard Oct 9 VIN 25689
Peter M... Thanks and congratulations
Last five of VIN: 13575- Issued June 8, 2013. Thanks for keeping this record. Tom Snow
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