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When will we see another supercharger?

100 stations in 2015, even if we say December, 2015, means 36 months from December, 2012. With 92 to go, that's about 2.5 per month. So, Tesla is 5 behind and counting. The policy of absolute silence is a big mistake. Tesla should at least say how many they are working on in order to build confidence among owners. It would certainly help sales, too, if the public believed that Tesla was really carrying out its supercharger promise. I want to believe, but I'm becoming skeptical.

scott;
that's completely wrong. The 100 is due by the end of this year. The "long term" to end 2015 adds another 92 or so, for a total of 192, encompassing the US and Canada.

Oooh, that's even worse. Check my math, but that's about two per week to get to 100 by the end of this year, given that we have 10 months left. We should be getting opening announcements every few days, not a vast silence.

Yeah, it's very likely to be "end-loaded", though, because the actual construction is trivially fast. It's the locating, permitting, and other bureaubilge that takes time. They have installation crews, with gear, twiddling thumbs right now.

Yeah, I also thought I read that they're essentially ready to go with equipment and staff, but securing the long-term leases for the actual locations, getting the permits, etc. was the hold up.

sorry guys you are not correct. 13 in CA by end of 2013. 86 in US by end of 2014 - that is what Elon promised. I would say TM is ahead od schedule with the 3 east Coast chargers.

@Brian H - http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger :

Nine stations are currently active, expanding to over 100 stations in 2015.

Just listened to the reveal again. Sept. 24/12 Starting at 5:45, "within 2 yrs" the 1st 100, so by Fall 2014. The 4-5 yrs. plan expands to the full 192, covering US and Canada, so that would be by 2016-7 sometime.

Ugh. I thought I heard that we would have chargers in the NW in 2013. Maybe it was zealous second hand info.

The primary issue causing negative publicity is reviewers and individuals trying to drive the car on long range road trips - which could start impacting sales as Tesla moves beyond the early adopters.

There was an indication recently superchargers would be added in new areas soon (such as the Houston-Dallas corridor) - but no other confirmation of even the general locations or timing of those superchargers.

Tesla should be able to do something similar to their map for stores and service centers - and show the current superchargers - and the areas where they are planning to open the next round of superchargers.

This would provide evidence they are moving forward with this strategy - and help relieve range anxiety concerns of current and prospective owners - coupled with the long-range map of the areas they want to cover within the original "2 years" projection.

I'm planning to make several trips from Houston to Dallas this year - and until there's a supercharger, it doesn't look practical to take my Model S (because of the extra time to stop at an RV park to get enough charge to make the trip).

bp, I totally agree. It is all starting to feel like a shell game.

@Captain_Zap, I don't think you're imagining it; Elon did say superchargers were coming to the NW (specifically "Seattle area") this year. I'm fairly certain I heard it during the latest earnings conference call.

Well, since I mentioned it I had to go back to the conference call to see if I remembered correctly. He did in fact say, "additional east coast, Texas, Seattle area, and Chicago" superchargers coming "in the next several months." Listen to the Q&A from the 30:00 - 32:00 minute mark.

Thanks, Salman. You made my day!

It would make no sense for TM to put in 200, or even 100 SC's in the U.S. if sales plateau at 15K annually in the U.S. It is looking like that may be an optimistic number given Elon's most recent statements, and the fact that all current orders will be filled by 3Q13. Rollout will be volume and demand-constrained and reservations are clearly cooling off, so I am expecting slow and steady rather than fast and furious on the SC network.

There is a chicken and egg conundrum here, but the total cost is expected to be $40 million for the first 100 SC's. If the first three year delivery todal is 45K, that's nearly $1,000 PER CAR for the network, plus maintenance and electricity costs. I get that it is a long term infrastructure investment that will benefit further years, but in terms of amortizing the cost, this is a big piece of TM's margin.

PD,

The automobile industry (manufacturers and dealers) spend somewhere between 2 and 5% of sales on advertising. I think that $40 million spent for a supercharging network will prove to be one of the wisest advertising expenditures of all time, and depending on average selling price and volume, still likely only about 1% of total sales.

15K units at $70K equals $3.05 billion over 3 years (pessimistic projection)
20K units at $85K equals $5.10 billion over 3 years (more optimistic projection,)

Free advertising:
http://green.autoblog.com/2013/02/07/fan-made-tesla-model-s-commercial-g...

Thank you Salman!

PD, at 1000 per car, with a cost of 2000 per car, that seems like a good business deal for Tesla, no?

Scott

I totally agree with your mathematics. Based on the literature released by Tesla and not other ancillary sources, you are absolutely correct.

The most recent statements (forget from where) listed DFW, Chicago region, FL, and one or two others as imminent expansions.

No shell game. Just "hysteresis" -- the lag between initiation and observed result of an action. Scottish proverb: "Fools and bairns shud nae see unfinished werk." (bairns = infants, children)

I like that one. Perhaps that's why we don't get advanced notice... We shud nae see unfinished werk.

I think it likely that Tesla is waiting for the 'step function' in super charging capability that Elon mentioned in the quarterly review of earnings before they open any more. I believe a date of 'several months' was mentioned. They can crank up the land/leases in advance and then pounce when the technology is ready. Why put in something they are going to change out in a few months?

@jackhub, they have repeatedly said they're not waiting for anything other than land/lease acquisition and permitting; that is the apparent holdup.

On the Superchargers page, the areas where they are working on the next superchargers could be listed as "Coming Soon" - just like the Service Centers page. While additional information, like the timeframe would be useful - at least confirming their intentions to open the next wave of superchargers - and where - would be very useful - not only to confirm their intent to continue expanding the network - but also to provide assurance to prospective buyers that they will have long range charging support when they get their cars...

+1 bp

+2 bp

Just another thought that I have not seen any comments on. Tesla is actually investing in the infrastructure... this would be like GM or Ford owning gas stations. Pretty smart of them to corner the market. No dealers to mess with and they get a monopoly on the fast charge network that they own the technology patent rights for. Elon is no dummy! Just keep in mind this network will be used by S, X and Gen 3 or whatever they are calling it. Anyone that buys S or X must be considered early adopters (even if you don't think you are an early adopter). The supercharging network must be in place before release of the mass market vehicle. As long as that happens Elon is golden. At that point there will be 50,000 of S and X on the road. That is assuming the mass market car comes out in 2015.

Slightly off thread here but...
While I look forward to the supercharger network I actually only do long distance road trips a few times per year. I think a big part getting the public to adopt EVs is getting them to realize you don't have to have this infrastructure in place for your daily driving activities. I used to fill up 1x per week with my ICE car. Now I top off my charge every time I get home. People ask me if I need to plug in at work. I respond why would I? I nicely ask them if they need a gas pump sitting everywhere they go.

The supercharging network is icing on a very rich cake. I could see Gen3 vehicles similar to 40kWh Ss, a good car for around town & upgraded battery packs for those with long distance driving needs. ICE vehicle drivers are conditioned to think in terms of having to go somewhere to fill up on fuel. I start every day with 235 miles of range-- That is hard to wrap your head around when your used to having to go somewhere to get your fuel.

Every time I see someone claiming that Tesla is going to have problems when Tesla runs out of reservations, I wonder why that same person isn't declaring that GM and Toyota are obviously going to go bankrupt next month since they hold even fewer $5000 deposits than Tesla.

I assume Tesla may have significant flexibility to lower prices and/or start buying advertising to induce more demand if they ever do manage to catch up to the reservation backlog.

+1 Kevin well said.

I don't think they are going to have any problems running out of reservations. A Product Specialist told me that at one of the SoCal Stores (can't remember which one), there is a 3-month waiting list, just to get a test drive!

agree with Kevin 100% and very well put. When I first got the car I was constantly looking at the energy app, always thinking about range. But fact is, and as most consumers do as well, I rarely drive more than 50 miles per day, at most 100. Its rare for a long trip. We have been conditioned as Kevin puts it...once you realize that daily range anxiety is really a non-issue, electric cars will be much more excepted...Now, while I do think the energy/trip data is interesting, i don't look at it nearly as much, and i suspect as I use the car more and more, i'll look at it, at least on a daily basis, less and less...


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