Pretty much the specification I'd expect from Tesla's "Bluestar" model. Is BMW stealing the show?
Yes, and that's a "dead-end" lease; all cars will be recalled to the factory for analysis at the end of the lease. Then they maybe begin to do final design tweaks for production -- another year later? That sounds like 2015 before any hit the road. Heck, TM will have had the Model X on the road for a year by then, and be hyping and promoting Gen III! Which will really eat BMW's lunch.
I wouldn't be surprised if they have GenIII cars on road by 2015. That's three years from now, and they have factory-related delays figured out now.
I believe only reason why we will not have GenIII cars on road next year is that Tesla is deliberately delaying the process in order to give battery technology time to improve enough that they can make affordable BEV without sacrificing range and/or performance.
Three years from now with current battery tech improvement speed we probably can have 300+ mile range battery pack (~90kWh) at ~$23k if not less. This leaves enough room for actual car to keep costs under $50k even for that 300 mile version.
This battery tech improvement also makes cars lighter which means better range with same amount of batteries. It could be that for 300+ mile you need only 70kWh if the car itself is smallish (like Roadster, not like Smart).
“All our bottom up calculations, as well as the purchase prices that we hear from OEMs, leads us to a cost level of $250/kWh,” Bernhart explained. “That’s the price level we see in the market for 2015.”
There we are. $250 x 85 kWh = $21k. That's about half of what some assume the Model S battery costs today. In other words: $10k for a 40 kWh battery that should propel the smaller (think Cd x A) and lighter GenIII vehicle significantly further than 160 miles. In yet another calculation, the battery for a 160-mile GenIII vehicle would cost significantly < $10k. These numbers seem to go very well with Tesla's $30k (base price!) GenIII target for 2015.
And just think how far a sooper-dooper 85+kWh GenIII could go ... Timo may get his 500++ mile wish yet!
A minor update on the topic:
But Elon has stuck pretty tight to late 2015, early 2016 for GenIII. Consider that it will need high volume, economies of scale, to be profitable. Which means several more assembly lines very early in the game.
I think 2015 will be "filled" with some of the variants on the S (and X?) Elon predicted. Cabriolet, pick-up, etc. Maybe the Sport S, too!
"Audi scuttles A2 plans"
I wonder what the news is here, though, because the A2 was already canceled before, in June 2012:
"Audi cancels all-electric A2, A1 e-tron due to high price-tag fears"
Bluestar/GenIII will be a pretty lonesome cowboy, once it hits the road.
But then again: "Audi R8 e-Tron Electric Car Back On Again"
No one can compete with tesla's range right now, so they're backing out of the game until they can. Once they figure it out, they know they will be able to scale it up a lot faster then tesla and overpower the market. It's up to tesla to scale up and entrench gen 3 in the consumer conscience before the rest catch up.
TM (Elon) is intending to inspire/force the market to go electric. If the majors produce a car as capable as a GenIII at equal/lower price, and sells in volume, then mission accomplished.
I hope he means he wants everyone to make electric cars in order to expand the market (that Tesla will dominate for decades to come). I hope just creating the market isn't the end state of tesla as a company. Almost makes it sound like they don't have a goal beyond gen III (the way your statement comes off).
You know Brian H. He's a wide-eyed, bleeding heart, idealist who doesn't believe in capitalism. Greed isn't in his vocabulary. :)
So that's his problem? Now I get it...
No, Elon has made it clear that TM is not an end unto itself, and that if it failed but the market had been induced/forced to go electric, he would consider that a success. That's not my POV, it's his. He will also fight to keep TM independent and growing until at least the "market change" tipping point.
IMO, it will be a long time till the majors actually get within hailing distance of TM tech and product stats. Consider that the LOWEST LEVEL TM car, the 40kWh Model S, is superior to all competition in range, and equal in acceleration.
The emphasis on the 85kWh and its SC network is to provide a credible alternative to the hybrid challenge that Toyota et al. have decided are "the future".
The 40 and 60 do not provide a sufficient challenge to the "range extender" mentality.
But Brian, people believe in tesla. If tesla is to consider adoption the acceptable definition of success, then they will be let down. Tesla will have to thrive beyond that goal in order for people to stick around beyond Elon's options vesting in totality after the genIII hits the market. No one wants to see it gobbled up by a major or just fade away like that...
The 40 and 60 are not competitors with the leaf, et al... It is a competes with the BMW 5 series and others in that category. For the price, the range of the 40 might not fair well with a person considering other cars in the price range.
The 85 and above will be the only viable option for mass adoption (high end and low end buyers)
It will be very interesting to see what the ranges offered for the GenIII will be ...
So, it does look like BMW will beat Tesla to market with their i3. Still doesn't mean it's a better car :-)
The i3 will sell well until people have a choice to buy the GenIII. Then, curtains.
100 mile range on the BMW i3 is a definite dealbreaker. Elon has already said on twitter that the Gen3 will have 200+ range at around the 30,000$ price.
BMW i3 is much smaller then planned Gen III, with much shorter range. It is more like an upscale Nissan Leaf, not really comparable with Gen III.
What Elon doesn't mention is if that 30k GenIII figure is before or after Federal tax credit. It's probably after, making the GenIII entry price $37,500. And by the time you get it tricked out the way you really want it figure more like 45k-50k. At least for the first generational model GenIII. So your total out of pocket is more like $40k
At that price point, people will not expect to trick out their cars.
As I reach for the charge cord more frequently for my cell phone every passing day I worry about the implications for my future Model S. I know the battery...
I made the mistake of posting on someone else's thread regarding this issue and did not feel comfortable continuing to post there.
With respect to...
My MS is ordered, due for European delivery in September. On the face of it, now it’s just a matter of waiting. But there’s something weird going on here. I...
X Deutschland Site Besuchen