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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Brian,

Yes, I see that mm's list remains current even with a lower percentage reporting. My question was aimed at whether we can extrapolate when, for example, Rs begin reporting that they are getting delivery windows. If a lower percentage reports in that case, it may be harder to tell where we are in the delivery queue, even if relatively high Rs start getting VINs and windows.

Of course my entire focus in this exercise is trying to predict when I'll get mine!

Rs are mostly long-time Roadster owners, and I suspect are on top of the forums.

Bump... to the first page...

Looks like some Ps and Rs have started getting windows - and they are for Dec. see deliveries thread.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,740 (November 26, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,335 - November 26, 2012

Net Total: 16,309 - November 26, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Nov. 27, 2012
14,761
US, Cailfornia

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,761 (November 27, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,356 - November 27, 2012

Net Total: 16,330 - November 27, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

@michiganmodels - props to you for your diligence in maintaining this thread. Was playing around in the test thread and came up with this table layout. May I humbly offer it for your consideration?

Country     SSL              |     S             |    R              |       P             
US          249 ( 4 Jan 12)  | 1,353 (19 Oct 12) |   532 (30 Oct 12) |  14,761 (27 Nov 12)
Canada                       |    23 (18 Jul 12) |   177 (23 Sep 12) |     493 (21 Nov 12)
Europe/Asia                  |   500 ( 2 Jul 12) |   269 (25 Nov 12) |   1,718 (23 Nov 12)
UK                           |    20 ( 9 Oct 12) |                   |      63 ( 8 Nov 12)
Hong Kong                    |    28 (27 Sep 12) |     2 ( 9 Jul 11) |     100 (30 Oct 12)
Australia                    |    38 (18 Aug 12) |                   |      30 (13 Jul 12)
-----------------------------+-------------------+-------------------+---------------------
TOTAL       249 ( 4 Jan 12)  | 1,962 (19 Oct 12) |   980 (25 Nov 12) |  17,165 (27 Nov 12)

Grand Total: 20,356 (27 Nov 2011)

In November, with 3 days to go, monthly reservations for the Model S exceed the average monthly rate necessary to support a production rate of 20,000 per year. An average of 1,667 reservations per month are required.

Jackhub,

Although technically correct, there will always be some cancellations. A reservation rate of 2,000/month would give a pretty adequate cushion. Many recent days have seen reservations near 100 a day. A sustained (world wide) reservation rate of 100 per day would support a 30,000 per year production rate. That's what I'm expecting to see.

Any sustained rate higher than 100 per day will see waiting times expand dramatically even with a 30 K annual production rate!

I am not sure that 30k will extend the wait times. If you go to the career page and search available jobs, there are several hundred openings. Some of them are marked swing shift and a least one is marked graveyard. So it looks like there will be at least two shifts. That I believe pushes annual production close to 40,000.

This certainly looks positive for us stock holders.

@nickjhowe - I like that layout. I'll see if I can replicate it.

@michiganmodels: you can download my file here. It contains the right HTML tags. Just make sure you use an editor with a fixed space font to check things line up.

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/6579280/mms.txt

At the 3Q conference call, Elon said they anticipate the canellation rate to stabilize at 10% once production is ramped up.

Jackhub,

Although I find what Elon said reasonable, keep in mind that his prediction is predicated on the waiting times becoming shorter. If the demand should stay way ahead of production and waiting times increase, then the cancellation rate will probably stay somewhat higher.

GoTesla
+1

As of November 27, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Nov. 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

November 30 (20,356*1,345)/1,342 = 20,402
December 31 (20,356*1,376)/1,342 = 20,872
.
:) ↑
.
December 31 extrapolation from July 1 base:
13,260 + (20,356- 13,260)*184/150 = 21,964
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (20,356 - 18,337)*61/27 = 22,898
.
:( ↓
___________
Daily Reservation rates implied in the 3 Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 15.2 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 47.3 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 74.8 :( ↓

@nickhowe, mm:
Use the

tag as well. Bolds and enlarges the font. Much better.

Heh; That would be the H2 tag. ;0 ;)

+1
20K !!! Go Tesla

You're already past my number but I'll throw it out there anyway.
P14651, Hawaii, USA
Exciting!

EU P#1769 reported in Norway today.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,761 (November 27, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,407 - November 27, 2012

Net Total: 16,381 - November 27, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

@MMS - typo - Eu P should be 1769 per jkirkbo

1120 Cars in the last 10 days. 112 cars per day.
Wham bamm!

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,761 (November 27, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,769 (November 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,407 - November 27, 2012

Net Total: 16,381 - November 27, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Whitty: Not quite as many as EU Rs were updated from R83 to R269. Probably only a very few of those occured in the last 10 days.

Around 95 cars per day is probably more realistic.

I think the update for the R's in Eu is because Athlon ordered 150 cars in one natch some time ago.

Natch = batch

14,832 (28 Nov 2012)

US General Production (P)


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