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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

for the Model S Signature the reservation payment is 40K you have to consider around 500 sigs in EU reservations

bump

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 19,711 (March 3, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,891 (February 27, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 26,761 – March 3, 2013

Net Total: 17,582 – March 3, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****
Official Deliveries: 2,400 - 2012 4th Quarter – February 20, 2013 Earnings Call *****

* = Net Total subtracts the 6,529 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 2,650 Deliveries announced at February 20, 2013 Quarter Earnings Call (See ***** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf
***** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2361364236x0x637040/4e3260f0-b711-47df-9c9e-16a8dda99a19/Q4'12%20SHL%20022013%20final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 19,711 (March 3, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,891 (February 27, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 26,761 – March 3, 2013

Net Total: 17,582 – March 3, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****
Official Deliveries: 2,400 - 2012 4th Quarter – February 20, 2013 Earnings Call *****

* = Net Total subtracts the 6,529 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 2,650 Deliveries announced at February 20, 2013 Quarter Earnings Call (See ***** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf
***** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...13%20final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 19,711 (March 3, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 677 (February 1, 2013)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,891 (February 27, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 168 (January 11, 2013)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 26,761 – March 3, 2013

Net Total: 17,582 – March 3, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****
Official Deliveries: 2,400 - 2012 4th Quarter – February 20, 2013 Earnings Call *****

* = Net Total subtracts the 6,529 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 2,650 Deliveries announced at February 20, 2013 Quarter Earnings Call (See ***** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf
***** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2361364236x0x637040/4e3260f0-b711-47df-9c9e-16a8dda99a19/Q4'12%20SHL%20022013%20final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

@MM,
With the benefit of hindsight, we know the forum inputs did not capture the large # of cancellations in the December quarter. In addition, Tesla has made it more difficult for us to track the reservations. Finally, many/most new reservation holders don't frequent the forum. What is your opinion of the statistical significance of these trackings?

Thanks for posting, MichiganModelS.

Your tally is one big reason I come to the forums here.

Even just a few datapoints a month should be sufficient to keep the tally going.

Michiganmodels, glad to see you back.

Objective1, +1

Michiganmodels, what would we do without you? Missed your posts.

@Michiganmodels - where have you been? You've been missed (and not just for the updates to this thread!)

As of March 3, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

26,761*1,741/1,438 = 32,400
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (26,761 - 13,260)*549/246 = 43,390
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (26,761 - 18,337)*426/124 = 50,738
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from December 31, 2012 base:
24,128 + (26,761 - 24,128)*365/60 = 40,145

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.6 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 54.9 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 67.9 :( ↓
.
Since Dec. '12: 43.9 :| →

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

Corr:

As of March 3, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

26,761*1,741/1,430 = 32,581
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (26,761 - 13,260)*549/238 = 44,403
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (26,761 - 18,337)*426/116 = 49,273
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from December 31, 2012 base:
24,128 + (26,761 - 24,128)*365/52 = 42,610

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.7 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 56.7 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 72.6 :( ↓
.
Since Dec. '12: 50.6 :| →

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

European #3002 reported over on TMC. I think the prior data point was #2891 on February 23rd: from TMC Eikrokei "The #2891 reservation was apparently made on February the 23rd."

That means Europe is running around 6/day, which is much slower than the 10-15/day we were seeing out of Europe before.

Really too bad no more data points out of the US reservations recently.

Brian H,

Maybe you need to explain some of your calculations. I count 245 days from July 1 to March 3, 123 from October 31 to March 3 and 62 from December 31 to March 3.

Andre;
Thanks. Got corrections of corrections skrued up. Revised table below.

Corr:

As of March 3, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:.

26,761*1,741/1,430 = 32,581
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (26,761 - 13,260)*549/246 = 43,390
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (26,761 - 18,337)*426/123 = 47,512
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from December 31, 2012 base:
24,128 + (26,761 - 24,128)*365/62 = 39,629

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.7 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 54.9 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 68.5 :( ↓
.
Since Dec. '12: 42.5 :| →

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

As much as I want to believe we can track reservations, it has been exceedingly difficult since early February. A few numbers a month will not have validity. Tesla has turned reservation #s, sequence #s, into random number generators.

More likely, new reservations are made by people not inclined to follow this forum.. That is the price of moving from early adopters to early majority.

As long as the frequency (mostly determined by making newbies aware of the forum) is adequate, sample numbers are fine. You don't need to see 1101-1199 to know that 1200 is 100 higher than 1100. Obviously, precision and granularity improve with reporting frequency.

No. Sample numbers are meaningless, unless you or MichiganModels sit inside Tesla and can translate the new encrypted reservation/sequence numbers. We from the outside can't track anymore because Tesla does not want us to track. The only way we can track is if every customer reports every reservation and cancellation.

What if instead we were to track the highest VIN delivered each week? I know they aren't delivered sequentially, but Tesla wouldn't skip VIN numbers would they? So over time it wouldn't it give an accurate production rate? Isn't that what we are really interested in? Say that we found that they were building an average of 400/week and a couple months later the average rises to 450/week. It doesn't tell the full story, but it would tell us that they feel that they need to increase production to so that they can keep up with current actual demand that that they are seeing. They did indicate that in steady state that they want to be right about three months between reservation and delivery, so pretty soon they will want to adjust their production rate to match thier actual demand. So although it isn't that way right now, I would think that a couple months after they start producing the 40kWh models that that they would want to start matching the output rate very close to the actual rate coming in. Or are there holes in this logic?

Several posters have stated that Tesla is no longer giving reservation numbers. That is contradicted by the facts. We are still having reservation numbers reported, just not as often.

However you look at it, the reservation rate has slowed since December 31st and has not yet recovered. The continued slow rate into March is a surprise to me. Time will tell if this is a temporary dip, or the often predicted (by the doomsayers) running out of the early adopters.

Eu. 3031 reported in norway

@Hills, 'tis never been that way. We've always worked with a discontinuous flow of sequence numbers.

I wish what I wrote is false. Tesla's practice changed regarding reservation #s.

Yes, we should still be able to track VIN #s, I believe, but it is not the same as tracking orders.

@Hills: What you wrote is false. Reservation numbers have always been random. Sequence numbers are not. The sequence numbers aren't as readily available, but they still exist.

Tesla is mixing up sequence numbers too.

Of course Tesla has internal sequence numbers that are meaningful to them, Tesla just don't want the outside world to be able to track them.

OK, where have you seen any evidence that they are mixing up sequence numbers. They don't even show a sequence number any more, so what would be the point of mixing it up?

Hong Kong:

P 114 December 14th, 2012

In Hong Kong, there is quite a large initial vehicle tax on more expensive cars ("First Registration Tax", or FRT), which makes a USD 60K car about twice as expensive by the time you get it. Cheaper cars pays a lot less, so it is in fact, a luxury tax (pollution, some would say, but it is not a question of MPG, merely the price)

While most of the cars of the world drive on the right side of the road, HK is one of those countries where we drive on the wrong side. It works quite all right, in fact, as long as all agree to drive on the wrong side. But, we need to have the steering wheel in the passenger side, to remind us we have to drive on the wrong side (Thank you for THAT, Great Britain and Commonwealth... ). Imagine what it would be in North America, if all Canadians drove on the wrong side of the road! No rule without exception, Canada is also in the Commonwealth - the only Commonwealth country driving in the right side I wonder?

To my knowledge, no right hand drive Tesla S cars have been made/delivered yet - the demo car in HK is a left hand drive model with a special permission to drive a certain circuit only.

For electric vehicles, the FRT is entirely exempt until April 1st, 2014, so that raises quite some questions:

1) Will the HKSAR government postpone the FRT exemption to a later date?

2) Will I get my Tesla before April 1st, 2014 (P 114, 14 Dec 2012)?

3) Are Tesla ahead or behind schedule, in their production?

4) If there is no extension/delay of the exemption, what will happen to Tesla orders in HK (!) ?

5) When will we get the HK pricing, and how much MORE will it be than US prices?

I for one will most probably stick to my order, however, the Tesla S full spec will double in price! There is a H of a difference in paying ~ 100K (USD) for a car - or 200K! I really want the big battery, air suspension, sunroof, tech package and so on, but if 200K USD, I will have to consider scraping down the options.

Hong Kong has 1000+ charging stations already, they are all geared for this. Unfortunately, existing EVs seem to exploit the FRT exemption by greeding up the initial price to a "market value" and skim the cream themselves. NOT a good way to show politicians, that EVs are worth putting money down on.

So, bring on delivery dates and HK pricing, please! I support Tesla and salute the amazing effort and results of their achievements ... but I need to have my Tesla S before April Fools Day 2014!

Please


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