Forums

JOIGNEZ-VOUS À LA COMMUNAUTÉ
INSCRIVEZ-VOUSIdentifiant

Production predictions by range

I figure they'll start production by June 1st and TM estimated 4000 in 2012.
So 4000/7 months is around ~ 571 a month.

*Can you tell I'm counting the unknown days?*

I'm #3562 and getting the 160 so how will TM be dividing up the 2012 production??? Last I remember reading the 300s are first... so will I even see my S this year?

If they somehow divide the first 4000 evenly:
1000 Signatures should be done by the end of July.
All 300s (non Sig) should be done by the end of Sept.
All 230s should be done by end of Nov.
... and I'll pick mine up Dec 24 right?

That would fall in line with the summer, fall, winter 'hard' dates right? ; )

A common question by this point. I'm P3853 and getting a 300 mile battery pack. With all of the Sig and previous owners jumping in I'm very close to the 5k limit for 2012. However, since I'm getting a 300 I hope that means I'll get mine by the end of September.

Honestly wish we had more details. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how thing turn out.

I expect not many folks will get bumped back for a smaller battery. Sigs and SSL first, then maybe a couple thousand while they prioritize battery packs they're good at building then fold in the smaller sized.

I expect up to P4000 to be built this year, with many deliveries happening in fall. The Sigs might not be all built before September, but a target of 5000 for the year has been mentioned before.

Tis an interesting question. If a p4000 with a 300 gets built before a p1000 with a 160, that would imply they will need to call a whole bunch of people and take orders. Or, we all go build it in the studio, and the start calling us by battery group, ordered in each group by p number.

As P1,837, the battery pack available at the time that I get the call maybe the one I decide on ultimately. I am still trying to convince myself that I don't want the Performance Model S however and I am frankly loosing that argument with myself.

I want the best Model S I can get, even if it's a bit over my budget as I plan on keeping it for 10+ years. My last car I kept for 5 and only sold it to invest it into my S (before it became worthless as well).

Someone with ~P6800 was told by a rep to expect delivery Dec. 2012. That would extrapolate to about 8000 cars this year. "Over-deliver" might have quite a kick! I can see Elon cackling and rubbing his hands at the Bonfire of the Shorts! I think he takes them personally.

@Brian, are you serious? Or are you just playing an April Fool's prank 3 days late?

Mine is P 6806. And I would love love love to claim that my Model S is from the first year of its release.

~ Prash.

Those numbers are also possible, and even better numbers. Last time this was discussed, however, the 5000 figure was conservative and the 8000 figure was considered optimistic. 10000 was a possibility but nobody was counting on that.

Still need to deliver to locations outside the US after all.

I'm Sig #267 and my customer service rep said (as of March 27th) that he wouldn't be surprised if I was contacted to configure my car in the next 2 months. My takeaway from that is Tesla will be very slow to initially ramp up their production, taking great care with the quality of the cars they put out.

I also know they want to under-promise and over-deliver, so it could be that I would be contacted sooner. But if they stick to the 3 month lead time between configuration and delivery, and I'm contacted for configuration mid May, I'd get #267 sometime in August. Then I would expect production to ramp up much more significantly as Tesla becomes more confident in the quality of the cars coming off the line. So it won't be a linear production ramp, but they could still easily exceed the 5,000 cars by year end line they have given the press.

Before the end of last year Tesla management estimated the 2012 production rate would be between 5,500 and 6,000. More recently they have been using the more conservative number of 5,000. I'm still hoping that those earlier estimates are still in the realm of possibility.

On a more pessimistic note, Morgan Stanley, while believing most of Tesla's guidances, is of the opinion that Tesla will only produce 2,000 cars in 2012.

Morgan Stanley Moderately Tweaks Tesla Motors Earnings Model

In a research report published earlier today, Morgan Stanley has adopted virtually all of Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ: TSLA[FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) 2012 guidance, except for the Model S delivery volume, where Morgan Stanley remains at 2,000 units.

Larry

Here's a link that hopefully works.

Morgan Stanley Moderately Tweaks Tesla Motors Earnings Model

Larry

I'm P4559, and I've convinced myself that I'll be getting mine as winter begins. I'm even considering holding my breath!

I'm P4432 and I e-mailed them a week ago. They said they are targeting 5-6 thousand in 2012. So I will get it late 2012 or early 2013. He said I will be contacted 4 months prior and that some options will not be available until late 2012. Which may effect delivery date, but did not say which options.

Somewhere it was mentioned the tech package would include blind spot detection. Makes me wonder if this is one of the options not available until late 2012

They have contacted the first 50 Sig reservation holders according to my local rep. as of yesterdays discussion.

I assume that they're gonna start the production list with the 300miles pack and call everyone on the list. Whether they accept or decline will decide the actual delivery list. Until they can provide the 230miles pack, they will continue the list.

When the mid-sized pack will be ready, they will start again from the top of the list and so on with the 160 miles battery pack. We will come to a point where the size of the battery pack doesn't matter and priority will be decided by the reservation #.
Just my opinion, BTW.

Well cool I hadn't heard the 5000+ rumors. I'll consider my best case to be mid-Oct and hope to be surprised.

Does anyone know if Tesla will be allocating 2012 production for the Canadian market? our reservation numbers are different then the US.

Alex
P258 (Canada)

I assume that they're gonna start the production list with the 300miles pack and call everyone on the list. Whether they accept or decline will decide the actual delivery list. Until they can provide the 230miles pack, they will continue the list.

When the mid-sized pack will be ready, they will start again from the top of the list and so on with the 160 miles battery pack. We will come to a point where the size of the battery pack doesn't matter and priority will be decided by the reservation #.
Just my opinion, BTW.
- gfaubert

Tesla has gone on record that their intent is to deliver some 160 and 230 mile cars before year-end 2012. To achieve this they would have to limit how far down the list they go in making calls. For example, if they called the entire list of over 8,000 reservations and their total production is only 5,000 then it is quite likely that no 160 mile cars would be delivered in 2012 since 300 and 230 mile cars could exhaust the 2012 production volume.

So I expect that this cutoff number will be their best estimate of total 2012 volume, minus the US and Canadian Signatures. Then they will probably make calls based on the current weekly production rate and initially batch production runs based on battery pack size, but ensuring that some 230 and 160 mile cars are delivered before year-end.

I expect by the beginning of 2013 they will essentially be producing cars in reservation number order. Obviously, some batching will no doubt still occur due to logistics. For example, cars will be batched geographically to assign them to a common car carrier, etc.

Larry

@Alex - We have been told that they will start Canadian deliveries 3 months after start of US deliveries so i would assume that this means that the first Canadian Sigs will be delivered around the late Q3 early Q4 timeframe. How that translates to when the Canadian P reservations will start to be delivered is not known.

Larry Chanin wrorte: "Tesla has gone on record that their intent is to deliver some 160 and 230 mile cars before year-end 2012."

Yes, but Tesla has also gone on record, that they intent to start delivering the European Model S in late 2012 (GeorgeB's blog post on March 7th, 2011).

If they intend to keep that promise too, they could have a hard time, sticking to the U.S. reservation sequence and delivering 60/40kWh cars this year.

Putting all this together I'm suspecting that there will be promises, they can't keep and I'm hoping it won't be the one, that they start delivering European Signature Model S in 2012.
(Because I live in Europe :-) )

Yes, but Tesla has also gone on record, that they intent to start delivering the European Model S in late 2012 (GeorgeB's blog post on March 7th, 2011).

If they intend to keep that promise too, they could have a hard time, sticking to the U.S. reservation sequence and delivering 60/40kWh cars this year. - sven.leser@syho...

I don't see why Tesla can't accommodate both promises. All they have to do is produce some European left-hand drive cars before year-end to satisfy their stated intent.

"Delivery of the European left-hand drive Model S is scheduled to begin in late 2012."- George Blankenship

In fact, there are only a couple of hundred Signature European reservations, it not inconceivable they could produce all or most of them. It just depends on where they select the cutoff reservation number for US General Production. These cars will be produced when the production rate for 2012 is at its highest. All of the European Signatures could be produced in less than a week.

Larry

Don't forget in your math that the P series stands behind:
50-100 Founders
1000 US Sigs
~280 US R (regular production for Roadster owners)
~100 Canadian Sigs

or a total of nearly 1,500 cars, just for North America. Then there are the ~300 Sigs/Rs for overseas, though it's possible not all of those will get built in 2012 owing to homologation delays.

Bottom line: unless Tesla really gets the lines cranking, my advice to P3000+ is to plan for Q1 2013. If you keep that mindset, you're unlikely to be disappointed and you may even get a surprise Christmas present.

RB;
As mentioned above, the first P cars will be the Bigs, which could have P#s up into the 6000s, or more, then the low P# Mids and Smalls will be interspersed. So the P# sequence is likely to look pretty crazy for 2012.

I agree with Brian. Further I don't think we've really gotten clarity on this. I'm curious about how they will manage orders given that we'll be batched by battery size and not taken by reservation number.

I figured I would ask Tesla. I am #3872 and plan to get a 40Kwh battery.

Based off current projections and your sequence #3872 along with the 40 kWh battery selection it sounds like you are on track for an early 2013 delivery. Possibly earlier if you select a larger battery pack.

Some clarity about the re-sequencing:
The sequence number is actually just the order we will contact our customers for their option selection, based off that we will separate the line into different queues. This will really only effect our 2012 deliveries as we ramp up production

I am still not sure if this means they will contact enough customers to create the first batch of 85s and push the 60s and 40s until later and then call more people as they run out of the size they need OR that they will call pretty much all the earlier Ps at once. Also curious to see if my deposit will convert at the time I select my 40Kwh battery even though I will be put at the end of the Queue for 2012....

I might end up delaying my delivery so it probably won't matter for me.

@gjunky I might end up delaying my delivery so it probably won't matter for me.

If you are thinking of delaying, is it possible to swap reservation numbers? Mine is P #6804 and I would love to have #3872 :)

I am planning to get the 60kwh battery. The only reason being that I want to have access to superchargers. Normally, I will make sure that I will have a fully charged battery. But, for those emergencies, I'd like to be prepared.

~ Prash.

@Alex
I emailed the Tesla Ownership Experience Advocate last week about a general time frame for my Canadian P172 number, indicating my intent is to get a 60kWh non-sig edition, and got the following response:

The current estimate for Canada general production to begin is late this year. It’s too early to know for sure when your delivery window will be, but with such a low sequence number you should be able to take delivery by the end of this year.


X Deutschland Site Besuchen