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Q4 results

Heard a little rumor a press release on Q4 numbers is coming out soon... Did anyone else hear this?

Really? That's surprising to me. Earnings call is Feb 11th

someone hinted that, I'll believe it when I see it

Q4 Sales/delivery ended 4 days ago....wouldn't it be rather quick if Q4 numbers was already done/present.....I assume not all payment have been cleared ect.
I don't believe such rumor - my guess: at best they could bee ready by end of january.

I would however believe it if was the delivery numbers for Q4 we are talking about, these should be present by now.

GM, Ford, etc. have all already announce 4Q sales. Why not Tesla?

Tesla has never announced sales figures when "all the others" did it on a regular basis. It's a consensus, not an obligation.

I heard a rumor on a update on production, deliveries, and reservations. Actual Q4 numbers will not be until Feb 11.

my guess, 3500 total delivered in 2012 at avg price of 90k
total reservations just north of 20k.

If we are making predictions, I say:

-2875 for the year "delivered" (gonna be stragglers that didn't get the payment in over the holidays), 2000 in Dec
-3300 produced for the year, with a current rate at 600/wk or 30k/year
-Average sales price 97k (pre-tax credit)
-Average of 12.5% gross margin for the vehicles delivered, and 20% on current deliveries

Any finance guys on here want to bake the numbers into fictitious Q4 financial results? I would actually like to see John Peterson take the numbers and crunch them.

I would like to see John Peterson take the numbers and then shove them up his tail pipe...Metaphorically speaking, of course ;)

George Blankenship and Deepak Ahuja filed form 4s (buying shares). They must be comfortable with the upcoming news

I think If tesla takes a dip soon I will be buying some more shares
This very exciting, I'm also glad I picked up some solarcity shares on the day of the IPO, (just google SCTY, and you'll know why)

@Volker. Right, but the discussion implied Tesla couldn't report that quickly. I agree that they won't, but it is their choice- not an inability.

"Volker.Berlin | JANUARY 4, 2013
Tesla has never announced sales figures when "all the others" did it on a regular basis. "

They haven't, but then again the number of sales to report was not significant.

Now that they will soon will be outselling Volt, Leaf, Prius (Plug in) and all others on a monthly basis, I predict they will soon (within the year) be releasing their figures an a monthly basis like the other majors.

Tesla, welcome to the big leagues!

As NielsChr said, if you're talking about Q4 results (like the thread title), those definitely won't be ready before the earnings call. If you're talking about just how many cars were made they could release those numbers if they wanted.

cprenzi;
Yeah, it's even faster growing and more volatile than TSLA! Elon must be kicking himself for leaving so much "on the table", though.

@djp - actually, if they are in possession of material data that isn't public, they aren't allowed to trade shares except for pre-arranged plans that were set long before they knew the material data.

So, I would conclude that they don't know material non-public data, which would seem to mean that the actuals are in line with projections.

@ djp@pixi.com
Deepak has sold 10k shares recently. In fact, it is planned option exercising, see here
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/insider-trades

@ Brian H
Elon bought more shares in addition to his ownership at IPO. So he's happy for himself that he got shares on the cheap, but unhappy for Solar City that they did not get enough funding for their business.

I'll be curious to see if Tesla will recognize revenue on vehicles shipped out before 1JAN, but not actually delivered to customers. If they do, the numbers could be very close or exceed the high end goal of 3K MS's sold. If not, hope they hit the low end safely.

My guess is TM will not release Q4 until Feb. 11, however, I suspect EM will tweet a production number since they probably hit the 3K goal.

Hope he doesn't tweet. Might get him in trouble with the SEC...

I think the numbers will look like this:

Highest VIN ~3200
Q3 delivered = 260

Cars either did not finish (due to special config) or owner was not able to pay for by the 31st ~200.

Total cars delivered in Q4 = ~2750. Any thoughts?

Someone just posted "VIN 3229 arrived this morning in Dallas" so might be closer to 3300 or more...

GoPrag,

Trying to remember if the sigs had different VIN numbers. If production VINs started with 0001 then you estimate will be low.

@GTC

I do not think the VINs reset after Sigs. There were also ~40 press/demo cars built also. That is what I factored in my estimates a few days ago in this thread.

I am surprised that there is no announcement yet. I kindof thought it would come out Friday after the markets closed. If anyone sees it, post a link back here.

My car was handed off from Tesla to a 3rd party to hold (because I couldn't take delivery until the New Year). It is possible that they used this technique to rev rec cars that we shipped but not delivered.

@nickjhowe

I think there are two pieces.

1) Cars finished & delivered (count cars on the way to the owners but not delivered ---but payment received?)
2) Payment received by the 31st.

In any case, I see a number around 2700-2900. I would hope that TM surprises everyone, but looking at the information available to us I see it'll be increasingly difficult.

Surprises could be:
- current production - over ~500/week
- slightly higher rev/car since all p85 were made

Customers in VIN 3200's are posting they made payments in 2012 and are just now receiving their MS. If Tesla rev rec's when payment received and handed off to third party, then might post sales over 3200 for Q4.

sorry forgot about 250 sold in Q3... could see over 3k in q4 rather...

I am VIN 3229 and completed sale on 12/31 (based on my loan approval) and wiring partial payment, but my financing check arrived at Tesla on 1/3. Not sure how they count that for sales/revenue purposes.

Silly question.
If ViNs in the 3200 range were delivered, and there were sigs, and Canadian 2000s, and demo cars, and ViNs on hold for diferent reasons, and,,,, How could Telsa have sold/delivered anywhere near 3200 cars?


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