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Sales volumes of EV (0.5%) is still very low compared to sales volumes of ICE. When will the shift towards more EV really start?

We believe in the EV technology of Tesla Motors (surely in combination with the Superchargers).

Anyway, I doubt it that there will ever be (in this century) a situation that we will have 100% EV's on the roads, and no ICE vehicles at all (0%).

The highest % of EV's on the roads will be 99%, in my opinion.

My prediction on the development of the total number of EV's on the roads is:

2020 - 10%
2030 - 20%
2040 - 40%
2050 - 60%
2060 - 80%
2070 - 90%
2080 - 95%
2090 - 97%
2100 - 99%

The last part will be hardest to gain.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

Analysts have lots of thoughts on this, and they charge a bunch of money for their thoughts. And it's all BS, or at least, what I should say, is their analysis is as good as yours or any of us.

Wait and see. Time will tell.

Elon Musk is much more optimistic than me. According to him 50% of all the manufactured vehicles in the year 2040 will be EV. And he also said that all the vehicles on the roads in 2055 will be EV's. Now, that really is optimistic, I think.

Well, actually I was wrong about the % of EV sales volumes in 2012. In the title of this thread I mentioned 0.5%. But that's too optimistic. Because the total sales volume of all kinds of vehicles in 2012 worldwide was about 70 million. That would mean that the EV sales figure was somewhere inbetween 0.01% and 0.02%. But as from 2013 this EV sales figure is very likely going to rise year after year.

Good guess Benz

I'm a fan of EV's, but there is no need to get to 100%. Some tasks will still require an ICE, and there is nothing wrong with an ICE. As long as we get to the 80% EV's for daily usage (commutes and transport).

So once the Gen III is there and is comparable in cost/features of a ICE, I expect the percentages to go up a lot faster. Not in the least because the current carmakers will need to provide competing models.

I could see the Gen III revolutionize cars, just like the iP* products of Apple. The Model S is currently just too expensive. There is a huge difference in a $700 device or a 70.000$ car. Both are expensive, but saving up for the one is feasible, the other not so.

What Tesla needs to do and will ultimately do if they haven't already, is make the EV so much better than any ICE car so that the average person will not only be able to afford an EV, they will no longer be able to afford to own an ICE car, so ICE vehicles will become a niche market. I think the transition is roughly S shaped, where the middle section of fast EV rise will be when the economics make a lot more sense for EVs than ICEs while most people still own only an aging ICE vehicle but are ready to make the shift to EV. I'm not sure how long it will take, but I'm at least as optimistic about EVs as Elon is about solar power.

The $30k EV will be part of the solution, but another possible factor is if the vehicle allows you to do a lot more, such as have a portable source of electricity for other uses when parked. The model S already offers owners the freedom to never have to stop at stinky gas stations again, only superchargers on the occasional long trip, along with significantly lower energy costs. These huge advantages will not be lost on the next generation, more affordable Tesla car.

They will catch on big time when you can get a driving demo in the parking lot at the regional megamalls, when you see one in a neighbor's driveway and when gas goes to $6+/gallon.

For those unable to afford a MS just yet, what about a Ford C-Max Energi plug-in hybrid? They are saying 20 mile all-electric range and it can be fully charged in 5 hours on 110V without the extra expense of 240 circuits and chargers.

$33K less a 3,750 tax credit.


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