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Swiss University Predicts 12.9% of Sports Cars beeing sold as electric versions

Our team at the "Center For Customer Insight" (CCI) in St. Gallen/Switzerland made an extensive survey to predict future sales of electric cars. Micro/City Cars like Smart will not be very successful as electric vehicles (only 2.7%). Sports Cars will (12.9%), also midsize and executive cars. Most surprisingly electric commercial cars will be successful with 15.4% of total sales. This will make sense for taxis (average daily cab range in New York is 130 to 200 miles). Again, vehicles used as second cars in the household (Smart) will have 0.0%.

As no direct answers were sampled ("Will you by an electric car?") the prediction model is somewhat hypothetical and should be tested with real data. The time beeing there is only one area with real data for electric car sales: TESLA.

We have prepared a short questionnaire (3-4 minutes) and everyone who is willing to participate may do so with the following link. Also non- or soon-to-become owners are invited.

http://survey.2ask.de/744e8df2201e15cf/survey.html

If the link does not start automatically please drag and drop it into your browser.

Thanks for your cooperation

Dr. Theo Lieven
Center For Customer Insight (CCI)
University of St. Gallen
Rosenbergstr. 51
CH-9000 St. Gallen

theo.lieven@unisg.ch

Dr. Levin,

Your survey is interesting, but other factors can contribute to market demand and sales as well.

I worked in the industry for a number of years and have insight to market demand and how consumers react to product launches. Product launches are critical times for companies and customers who made initial orders, having expectations for quality, delivery, and service. The success of the launch will contribute to vehicle sales and potential customers. I have observed this with companies that succeeded, while others failed the initial demands. This includes ramp up time, equipment reliability, part supplier’s quality and delivery, and training for servicing personnel, amongst other.

In the early to late 1990’s, many vehicle assembly plants in USA were converted to Truck Plants and produced SUV’s for the fast growing market. And today families are maintaining these vehicles because of cargo and passenger area, and comfort when traveling long distances for trips and leisure. One solution to reduce their cost will be purchasing a second vehicle (electric) while maintaining their SUV or Truck for special purposes. This will reduce their cost for daily activities and other incentives as provided. This decision will be based on saving money while extending the life of their special purpose vehicle. You may observe this thinking as well.

I prepared some papers several years ago describing electric vehicle usage for various applications, that included solutions for developing the initial infrastructures. These papers described various solutions for charging and automated battery changing stations. The subject was inner city transportation systems and government investments to support infrastructure development for electric vehicles operating within cities. There are incentives for government participation in these programs and providing the funding for infrastructure development. Also environmental incentives as well, minimizing emissions and noise reduction. Many cities throughout the world are concerned about hazards and whether this prevents visitors and business representatives from selecting their city as location of interest.

I agree with the commercial estimates.


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