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Third Generation Tesla(s)

Hey guys, I'm just wondering: are any of you waiting for the third generation Tesla(s)? I'm pretty sure I will pick one up in another 2-3 years. Tesla is growing both as a stock and as a company, so there's no doubt they will improve their vehicles with more luxury and more sportiness. I'm choosing between a Model X or a third generation crossover (most likely the third-gen Model X). So what do you guys think? I think Tesla is an awesome company trying to change the world and I support their mission. About 2 months ago I visited the Tesla Short Hills store in NJ with my dad and we loved the Model S. First I want to see the Model X, being that I didn't get a chance to see it in February 2012 when it came out. I would like to see the new 3rd gen platform !soon. I really want to hear some Supercharger news. I haven't heard anything new in months! I'm at least 90% sure we'll hear something at Teslive in July. So what do you guys think?: Model X or a third gen Model X?

If you are waiting for a faster, more luxury Tesla, you might as well buy a the Model S P85+ now. From all the articles and investor info coming from Tesla, the next step for Tesla is to build the Model X (sport/utility), and then a Gen III more economical EV car for the masses.

I suspect there will be improvements to the Model S over the years, however, the whole point of building the Model S, was to build the BEST car first, win a bunch of awards / critical acclaim, etc, and then focus on using the technology to develop less-expensive cars for the masses.

If anything, I suspect once the Gen III comes out, future Model S variations could very-well only get more expensive (as it is there has already been one price increase).

If you are looking for a faster Tesla, you might want to first test-drive a P85+, as I don't know if you would want anything even faster. As it stands currently, only very expensive exotics and highly modified muscle-cars can take a P85+ off the line to 60 MPH.

Tesla is not trying to be the next Ferrari or Porsche, but rather the next GM.

I believe the model s could beat nearly all super cars in 0 to 30. The instant acceleration of the p85 is unmatched.

I expect the first million generation III cars are going to be priced at a lot more than $30,000, if Tesla has the good sense to charge a high enough price to avoid a long backlog. That probably implies a luxury interior being available for generation III as well, for people who just want a smaller car than Model S / Model X.

Joel,

Hopefully they can sell them under $40k, however, I agree sexy smaller lighter two-door GEN III Tesla would appeal to a great deal of buyers just waiting in the wings for their first EV.

Something like a Tesla version of a Scion FR-S, with a 40 kWh battery, would sell like hotcakes under $40k. Even I would buy one of those right now if an EV version existed, as it is by far the best looking ICE car on the road today under $30k.

Interesting to hear about the future of Tesla.

I currently own Model S (85, non-performance) and absolutely love it. I also own some stock--which I bought at $27, now worth $76--just love it.

However, I'm not sure how well Model X will sell. I know there are lots of reservation holders out there, but I think Tesla will need a better infrastructure in place to be sell to the less informed, less adventurous public (like Broder).

If Tesla can bring down the price of Gen III to the realm of mid 30K and have viable infrastructure for rapid charging, they'll do well. If not, Tesla will stay a small niche market car maker.

I'm hopeful though that they will continue to improve with time.

I think it would make a lot of sense for Tesla to introduce Gen III at $50,000 with a luxury interior and the same useful range as the 85 kwh Model S. (That is, $50,000 for the configuration people are actually going to be buying, including the tech package and the parcel shelf and Supercharger compatibility.) If they get to the point when they're running out of buyers, then offer a less expensive alternative with a less expensive interior and/or smaller battery pack. Or maybe just gradually lower the price if the production cost is well above the selling price and they're not looking for funding for the next factory.

I thought that the Gen III assembly line in the current Tesla Factory building is expected to be able to produce one or two million vehicles a year.

If the legacy automakers aren't interested in building competitive EVs, then Elon's goal of half the EVs being electric is going to require Tesla to build about 7.5 million cars per year for the US, plus a bunch more to cover the demand for buyers in other countries. I don't expect Tesla to have that capacity in place until something like 2020. (Plus, I'm assuming Elon was only going for half the new cars being sold, and not half the cars on the road; if he's impatient to get to half the cars on the road, he's going to want more than 7.5 million EVs built for sale to US customers each year.)

jchangyy - Porsche sells 20k 911, 20k Panamera and 80k Cayenne ( at about $90k ) a year. I live close to an elementary school and every morning from 8:30 to 9:00 am our neighbourhood get invaded by hundreds of $60 k to $ 100 k SUVs. The reason why I own Tesla stock is because of the potential of Model X... I can see the market opportunity every morning.

Elon seems to estimate the X market at about 2/3 of the S.

Brian - I estimate about 4x... will be fun who is right. Either way can't loose, but there might be an upside surprise.

I think 1/2 the interest for the X over the S is more believable. S is as big as it is because of its uniqueness, and in comparison the X is just a tweaked S IMHO.
For GenIII it's important that it start off in the 30-40k range. Reason why is because the next high performance Roadster will be based off the GenIII chassis. Thats where you'll get your next performance fix and without too much R&D lead time.

@Kleist. I see your point and I hope that Tesla will sell bunch of Model Xs. I'm just afraid that Model X will target the niche market (people who can afford a $90-100k cars AND those who are geeky enough and are excited about being the first adaptors).

With Model S, it is a great novelty vehicle. It's not main stream YET--although living here in the Silicon Valley, you'd think differently.

My Money is on the Gen III priced at mid 30k with infrastructure built to make it as easy as fueling at a gas station. that's what the general public(mass market) is used to and will expect, if Tesla hopes to move into the mass market. You can't move a mountain overnight, but you can chip away at it bit by bit--it'll take a long time.

I'm actually keeping my eye out on the 85 kWh regular model, but if I save my money and put it where my mouth is I could probably afford a P85.

I'd actually like to see Tesla go up to $100 before September.

sk;
At the current rate of increase, it should be there by the end of the week!

>:)

Correction, middle of the week.

Correction, close tomorrow.

Lol. I'm not surprised Brian. They closed today at like $87.80 per share.

k2014 wrote: k2014 | May 12, 2013 new

I believe the model s could beat nearly all super cars in 0 to 30. The instant acceleration of the p85 is unmatched.

My reply: You're kidding me correct. Really? Truly you jest? There's a multitude of cars that'll beat the 85+ to 30 (or even 60 and 100), including the mother of all AWD cars, the Porsche Turbo S with Sport Chrono and Launch control, Godzilla (aka Nissan GTR), E63 AMG AWD & yes, even the lowly Subie WRX-Sti will beat it to 30 and 60 as well. Yes, the 85+ is quick, BUT even traction has its limitations.

GTR is just a waste of money, time, and looks ugly.


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