This thread is for tracking the actual highest VIN-number. Actually I found a VIN 9903 at TeslaMotorClub. When do we see the 10.000?
Highest: VIN#16489 (romainiacWV)
Here's what I'm doing with the data folks post, in case you didn't see this a few pages ago:
In a nutshell, I'm using the past 2 months' worth of "orders" (reservations sent to production) to get an idea of how fast Tesla is selling new MSes. Now, of course, there's a difference between someone ordering a car and someone actually paying for it, but I expect the difference isn't gargantuan.
The image will update whenever I add new VINs.
Maybe not helpful... bought a floor model (delivery this week), VIN 11623 (which means I bought an ancient car, I guess)
@dirkhh Based on current production rates, that VIN was assigned likely 10-12 weeks ago, so not ancient (only relatively old by MS standards).
Ordered June 18 VIN 16425 No word on a completion date. I requested early August delivery to NC.
Love the chart! Awesome....
Am I looking at it correctly? Vin 16489 has a date of 7/8/13 on the chart, but date of 7/2/13 next to "End" ??
Nice work @cfOH!
And good catch Jackie! Since the slope is computed from the data points, the correction probably won't change the daily rate.
@Jackie, D'oh! I automated the Regression numbers, but forgot to convert the Diff numbers into calculations (since I'm not using them anyway). I'll drop those off the spreadsheet...thanks for taking a close look at it. :-)
How does this square with the following:
"kidjay | JULY 9, 2013 We took the factory June 25th after going through all the car pickup stuff. So our tour didn't start till 5:30pm, our appt was at 4:30p. The guy that did the tour ask if we wanted to walk the factory instead of the tram they had. By doing this, we were able to go to section were the tram couldn't go! We saw things that most people could not see and it was just my wife, my son, and myself! We didn't leave Fremont factory till 7:30pm. We spent that much time in the factory learning about the MS and going to almost every station on the ground level with robots in full operation and the factory on full throttle with the second shift of the day. The upstairs is off limit where they have the battery operation and some other secret stuff. By the way, they have monitors within the factory and it show how many MS they have produce that week so far. The week prior to us taking the tour. They pumped out 550 MS. The guy told us that was the most they have every done so far in 1 week!"
@samosam My chart is currently estimating 544 MSes per week, so 550 is pretty darn close. I'm already seeing some evidence that the rate of production is increasing over time (recent holiday time off notwithstanding), so by the end of the year, 600 per week is probably reasonable, if not higher.
Quick update for VIN 15609 (an MC Red S85). Reserved on 6/19, release for production the next day (got the VIN), with a delivery window of July 15-31. Just heard back from my Product Specialist that it will "pass the Factory Gate" on 7/12. That's about 22 calendar days, which is cool; however I think I read the factory was closed for the first week of July, so this is more like three weeks or so for a bespoke care, which is pretty impressive.
#16632 Delivery late July
I think the methodology for the tracking is spot-on. That your number tracks the other data point of the factory tour leads me to think that Tesla is sandbagging in their comments and is building lots of cars.
Their jobs section of their website shows they are filling hundreds of new spots for second and third shifts.
All signs point to Tesla selling a minimum of 30,000 cars in the next 12 months. More likely 40,0000.
AmpedRealtor | JULY 8, 2013 @ fnealnwc, I finalized two days after you did and my VIN is 16XXX. How did you get such a low VIN number? Are you not in the US
Sorry Amped ! left off the first #. Should of been 16071
Great, the SuperCharger threads are really going to get feisty now. :)
If the factory was closed the 1st week of July, all those chart computations are low.
On the Tesla Motors forum, in the thread "Norwegian Deliveries", j.gjerde just posted that he received an email from Tesla Motors on July 4th, 2013:
Mail from Tesla July 4th; "There is no delay in Model S deliveries, all we did is that we will start a bit later instead of July in August, but this wont affect your Model S delivery. As we are going to ramp up production and delivery very rapidly. So you can still expect your Model S in September – October."
If this is true than this is very significant BREAKING NEWS, I would say. Right?
Woo Hoo, got my VIN: 16942
Ordered 7/5 Confirmed 7/6 VIN on 7/9
Just got my VIN today 16924.
Congrats, tezzla and Robert!
This great information and news (unless TSLA is doing some weird calculus with VINs). Thanks to all.
cfOH - Thank you for taking the time to graph and update Tesla's progress. Your information is invaluable for the investing community between announcements.
Great....approaching 17,000 at mid calendar year!
Got my VIN 16676!!
Ordered 6/25 Confirmed 7/8 VIN received 7/9
Highest: VIN#16942 (tezzla)
does that mean I'm last? :( S85
fyi: I ordered CA personalized plates last week before my test drive (TEZZLA) (how's that for faith)
Today, July 9th I also got my VIN officially in My garage. S#416 will be delivered in the Netherlands and has VIN# 16777.
Are we getting different vin#s for US customers and oversea ones. If so how come avanherk from Netherlands has vin# in the 16,ooos?? Maybe Tesla trying to keep secret the number of sales overseas??
Got it today! Norway P85+
When people receive their VIN numbers, it all has got to do with planning of the production of the Tesla Model S's at the Tesla factory in Fremont.
Production of Tesla Model S's with similar options (colour, pano roof, etc.) are joined in a certain batch (as much as possible). This is done to achieve some efficiency in the production process (among other reasons).
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