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Lease Pricing Estimates & Price Increase Concerns

Like many of you, I am a long time lurker in these forums, but this is my 1st post. I don't need the car ( current lease doesn't run out until Jan 2014) for quite a while, and when I reserved (#12,550) my plan was to defer until 5-6 before the end of year. I received my invitation to configure (will be P85), and am now in quite a quandary, and I'm sure I'm not alone. My 1st preference is to lease, but my concern is that the lease prices, when announced in the summer will be exorbitant $1,500+ as there really isn't a valid sense of what depreciation will be, so I can't really guess based on other similarly priced cars. If that's the case, I'm better of buying, financing $70k (less down payment) for $1500 over 4 years.

If I am better off buying, Tesla threw a wrench in my plans with the price increase. SInce I want the 21" wheels, I'd have to pay the $2500 increase + $3,500 for the larger rims. Paying an extra $6k just to wait to see what the lease prices will be is what I'm up against. I have until Jan 17th to put my order in before being hit with the increase. I know this was a long winded post, but the moral is, can anyone speculate on what the lease pricing will be or chime in on their opinion on what I should do? Any and all help is appreciated.

- Hopefully a future Tesla driver

I thought if you configured and locked in before 2013 you did not pay the price increase. If that is the case you are better off buying and save the price increase. Better hurry :-)

Yeah, I have until Jan 17th to lock in my configuration.

Or you could just buy out of your current lease and get the Model S earlier, getting the 21" rims for free with the performance version and not paying the price increase.

@Jrettinger, if you lock in before 12/31/2012, you will not get hit with the price increase.

Since you would also be leasing a car that was 6k more expensive, my guess is that you're better off purchasing. I think residuals will be low since there's no proven resale market. However, if it's also a problem taking delivery of the car in the next few months, that could affect your decision as well.

Same situation here (sitting at Carmax as I write this to see how bad the hit will be to buy out my lease and sell my car to Carmax. I had also wanted to lease but will now buy to avoid the price increase. :-(

Thank you everyone for your feedback! It's looking like buying will probably end up being the best option. To all those in the same boat, I'd love to hear what you end up doing.

Appraisal from Carmax came in near full Blue Book value despite about $500 in damage, so after figuring in the savings from having that repaired and saving the $400 end of lease disposition fee, I'm really only going to lose at most $2500 if the car showed up in a month. Since I am doing the non air suspension, it will be at least March or April for me, putting me at a less than $2k loss, and making buying the Model S my best option (financing about $60k + $4k sales tax and the extended warranty over 66 mos. at 1.69%). Plus I had already come to the conclusion that unlike most cars, the payback on this car comes in driving it longer since you save money on gas and any consumables other than tires are covered.

Tiebreaker;
Jan. 1 and locking-in have nothing to do with each other. If you reserve before Jan. and finalize within the window given to you by TM (which might be Feb. or March if they so choose), you get the 2012 prices.


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