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Porsche Financials

http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/publications/2...

in 2012, with revenues of approximately $19B, the company made a net profit after taxes of 13%. I estimate separately that their gross profit to be around 33% depending how it is calculated. Porsche sells about 140,000 autos/year

Tesla with Model S and X could exceed that number and have a ASP=$90,000. It could exceed that number of the Tesla is able to get improved battery tech gives its hi end autos 500 miles plus ubiquitous supercharger use. They key enabling tech are increases in battery energy density and lower cost/KW-hr.

GenIII could be the game changer at $35,000 or lower.

Gen 3 will cost more than $40,000, which is more than many in the middle class will spend on a depreciating asset.

@Iowa92x

I disagree. It is the middle class that pays closer attention to the budget when vehicle shopping. TCO of a $40k EV is equivalent to an average family car price. If you're curious enough, go ahead and plug in the numbers for yourself. There are several calculators available online. Teslarumors.com has one under the teslanomics tab.

In most products, real money is made selling hi end, and mostly hi mid-end products. By the time prices drop to mass market range, the products are commoditized and margins are minimal. Look how well Apple has done selling at the upper end. Same with BMW, Porsche, etc.

With advances in battery tech, BEV will be cheaper than comparable ICE autos.

What high-end products does Apple make? I thought all it does is cheap gizmos. I agree with you about Porsche and BMW though.

People often tend to think in the short term vs. total cost of ownership. A person paying $25,000 for an Accord may not look at a $40k Tesla, thinking the Honda is a better value and more for their money. Gas savings puts the eCar ahead longer term.

Apple makes $300 iPads, not really considered high end.

@Bubba2000

I've seen what you suggest at work, only backwards. I don't think it still works this way but, with airlines, the first class passengers pay for the entire flight. The business and econonmy class would be the profit. Considering how airlines have changed, maybe that system didn't work.

If we really think about the numbers here, Tesla only needs a few hundred thousand fans to satisfy their Model E goal. There are at least that many people who would gladly buy it now if it were already available at the proposed starting price. Once we have that many owners rolling around in Model Es, then we can only imagine how much stronger the word of mouth advertising will be.
And once again, there will be plenty of profit opporunities with Model E since the list of available high margin options will probably be a rather long one. Let's see what I can guesstimate on the fly just for fun:

$37,500 - starting price
$10,000 - larger battery
$12,000 - performance package
$ 5,000 - awd
$ 3,500 - tech package
$ 2,000 - pano
$ 2,000 - air
$ 2,000 - audio
$ 1,500 - leather

I can keep going, but I'm sure the point is clear. ASP of Model E will not equal its starting price, and half of total vehicle price could easily consist of highly profitable optional features.

TSLAholic - I like your concept. However, I think Tesla is better off sticking to a buffet plan:

1. Base car = $35k with just about everything included.
2. Large battery = $7,500
2. Performance Package extra power from AWD, deluxe extras included =$7,500

Porsche makes a ton of money selling extras. However, simple choices lead to economies of scale due to simplified manufacturing and logistics. Plus it will not leave a bad taste with the consumers.

Tesla will have to depend on the simplicity of the BEV, automated manufacturing, economies of scale to lower their costs and achieve 25% gross profit. The wild card is the battery cost.

Bundling features is certainly a smart move from a logistical standpoint.
However, Elon mentioned that part of meeting the lower starting price goal will include the base car having fewer features than Model S. There is a video somewhere that shows the crowd reacting as the announcement is made since most find Model S to have very few features to begin with. I am fairly certain the base Model E will be a bare bones, no extra gadgets, functional "get the job done" car.

Bubba, you're way ahead of yourself. I think numbers like that may be possible after Q4, but maybe not till Q1. This is not magic.


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