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Q2 report

What does everyone think we will hear, and do you think wallstreet will respond positively? I'm wondering if expectations are too high at this point when Tesla will be spending a lot of cash to increase production, research, and install superchargers (high capex). With that in mind I'm thinking near term after the report we might see a drop in the stock price back to the 100-110s. Also, the margins is a concern to me. At Teslive, there was a remark made by one of the high-up Tesla employees there (can't remember who it was) where he said they are running on extremely thin profit margins still.
I'm still a Long- selling my stock when it hits $1000 per share :)

I think that was Jerome Guillen at Teslive and I think he was talking about NET profits, not the 25% GROSS profits they are striving for.
Sounded like they were doing everything possible to show a profit in Q2. Wall Street is expecting a loss, and Elon Musk has guided for a loss.

Analysts expect a quarterly loss of .17 a share. So I'm not sure who that would surprise to the downside. If the loss is greater than .17, then we could see a sell off.

I think expecting profit is pie in the sky thinking this quarter because of the huge cap ex Tesla is now going through

And all the cars they made that will take a month or two longer than usual to deliver (Europe).

Profit is not important anymore as long as sales targets are exceeded and 25% margin is met and maintained. Cash flow is fantastic, Gen III cap ex is the name of the game. The next time profit might be important is after genIII goes into first year production. Then it's cap ex on new factory and the cycle continues untill production gets near world wide demand. This is growth stock for the next decade. The assumption of massive profits to be achieved if cap ex requirements met, then current profit is secondary metric at best to determining future health and success.

Elon indicated that Tesla will exceed the baseline 400 cars/week significantly and by the end of 2014 800 cars/week will be produced (don't remember the exact words). In Tesla Live he said that demand exceeds supply. So revenues including what has been shipped to Europe will exceed expectations and guidance.

However, Elon is not standing still with the $750M that Tesla has in the bank. Capex was budgeted a $200M, but I suspect Tesla will accelerate and exceed those estimates. They will invest significantly in automation with robots, etc plus invest on the design, manufacturing facilities for the Model X in a big way. Meanwhile, supercharger deployment has certainly accelerated. Add it all up and capital outlay may not show in the income statement, a lot of the spending will be classified as expenses and hit the income statement.

As I shareholder, I would prefer that Tesla invest that the company invest for the long term. The stock may take a short term dip, but the markets have wised up and any dip may be short lived.

Why would "a lot of the spending" be expense? Superchargers are capex. Even overseas shipping only has to be recognized when the cars are sold.

Since last Thurs, the stock is up about $10!! The analysts seem to be piling on. That will bring in some of the fund buyers, too, and index funds will be happy.

Kinda makes me worry; the analysts have been so 'tarded for so long ...

Don't worry mate. All pieces of the puzzle will be on the right place, then more and more analysts will see it too.

Brian, I am new to investing, but all I can see is that most commentators and analysts are like Monday quarterbacks. They always write about what was yesterday's news.
Very few takes the time to make up their own minds about a stock. They are like dogs chasing their tails.
They throw as much against the wall as they can and something will stick.

That's why we have to do our own research :)

Not my point. If the analysts are so frequently wrong, it's dangerous to have too many agree with you. Consensus has momentum, but anything really worthwhile is almost by definition "the road less travelled".


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