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TSLA stock price in 5 years

What do you think the price of TSLA stock will be on December 31, 2016? Do you own the stock? Care to say how many shares? Please pick a specific dollar amount - no ranges please. If you think they will be bought out, put that down.

We could all throw $5 in a pot and whoever is closest wins????

$57.00
Yes
1000 shares

I have bought some with 21.58-22.37. Nearly sold it when it did hit GoldmanSucks estimate of 30 some while ago. Raised my short term estimate to 35. When it hits 35, I´ll sell. And buy again if it goes below currenet levels. If the first thing happends, my S-model comes 50 % off the list price.

Feb is exiting time, annual report and X-model tec.
5 years TM will hit 60.

About the same, after 3 splits.
;)

Brian, I know you're showing your smiley, but I hope you're right anyway.

$tratosphere
few thousand shares

TM could be taking a very measurable piece of market share from industry leaders by that time with Model S, X and BlueStar so it is not out of the realm of possibility, depending on the economy at large and if the federal and state rebates are still in force, for demand to continually outstrip supply for domestic and international orders (coupled with a weak dollar), that the outstanding shares could be bought up as well, thus driving the price into Apple territory or could be similar to the rise/splits of Dell in the late 90's: http://getsplithistory.com/DELL

Take with with a grain of salt, because it would be ideal and flawless execution in the marketplace...

When TSLA hits profitability, takes direct measurable market share away from it's compeditors while announcing partnerships with said companies, no quality issues or recalls for bad press, greatly expands it's footprint in Nummi, buys back shares at least twice each year and has pent up demand while increasing supply for each of it's models, keeps it's profit margin at or around double of other american makers (~25%) and can do all of this with a fraction of the marketing budget we could easily see stock price soar (doubling every other year possibly)

Price targets (no splits with all of the above being true)
2012 - $50
2013 - $72
2014 - $100
2015 - $180
2016 - $300

Geez, disco, I learn yez, and I learn yez, but yez never learn!!

His, hers, its;
He's, she's, it's.

>>:(

;p

About your doubling every other year -- I think you did more than that for 2015 and 2016. They should be $140 and $200 on that schedule.

I bought 440 TSLA @ $30 a month ago, just after the Morgan Stanley downgrade, in the hope that it would rebound quickly and pay for my Tesla Model S options one year from now (I'm not long).

Must say that I was a little nervous about this. There seem to be strong forces trying to talk the stock down and a lot of short interest.

I e-mailed the MS analyst about the downgrade and got a reply that made me feel better. He said that a 44 dollar price target (the highest on the street) does not constitute a short, and, that of all their "underweight" rated stocks, Tesla still stands near the higest ranked.

Lot of folks seem to short on S-model failure and I expect this trend to end before summer. Over longterm profitability in an issue to follow and in these volatile markets TM stock is very speculative one. This year will set the trend for TM. I expect double the normal longterm uptrend for TM, around 20 % pa for 5 years or so. This estima will include some failures along the way, the normal stuff for start-up companies. Like prolonged profitability, drastic change in EPA figures, reduction in tax-incentives and some product problems. On a positive side there are Daimler and Toyota, either one of them will start ordering powerlines in heavy volumes, not just 1-2 marginal models. In 5 years also some of the expected new batterytechs might be in TM extenting the range and/or lowering bluestar price to 30 000 per unit.

test

I just purchased another 200 shares to double my total to 400 shares at an average price of $23.46 per share. If it drops again, I'll add again with plans to sell when my Model S ships (to help pay down my load that I will desperately need after the options prices were released).

BYT

Thats a good average price. I too plan to sell to help pay for my car. I hope it works out otherwise - I will be paying more over the already more I am paying to get the car over the already more I am paying to get the options and so I wouldnt want that to happen any more??:)

I guess it's time to buy some more now. :) Humorously, e*trade doesn't show any news for Tesla today, just the 20% single day drop.

rdgreene

etrade makes me nervous - I switched to td ameritrade.

When the headline first read "2 executives left Tesla" , it dropped 20%, once Tesla explained everything, the stock is now up 7% in after hours trading.

I picked up 2000 shares, avg. $24.30. The stock will bounce back to blend in once the news is cleared up.

My guess for the stock is $45 when the Model S is released.

I hope so. I wish I hadn't bought so much in November. I only had enough in my account for another 55 shares. Now I'm up to 1655.
My average is closer to $30. Today's buy (and it was only at the end of the day) won't lower my average much.

@lgagliardi -- was it the talking baby?

For those folks on the forum who have been around and following things for a while and believe Tesla stock is eventually headed significantly higher, where is this analyst making an error in his assumptions? They look pretty reasonable to the average Joe.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/01/20/tesla-may-be-headed-for-the-junky...

I am not trying to disparage Tesla, just trying to understand. I am also a stock holder as well as a reservation holder and very much wish to see Tesla and the entire EV industry succeed for the sake of the environment.

Thanks.

After reading the entire article, I had to return to the byline to understand. I have been following Motley Fool contributors for several years now and nearly all pieces are extremely negative towards Tesla. Most articles are ill-informed pieces that either do not have the correct facts, leave them out, or distort them.

This one appears to do the same. I am not totally familiar with company balance sheets, but how did this guy come up with the cost to produce the Model S and the operating expenses? You can't just extrapolate those numbers from previous years. He doesn't have that kind of information.

But, assuming he is right for the moment, who in his right mind would consider going forward with any product that consistanly produces a net negative profit margin? Certainly not someone of Elon's caliber. Look at his track record. Forget about Zip2 and PayPal since those are not material products you can hold in your hand and were purchased by others for a hefty sum. Solar City is a very profitable company despite the recent recession. SpaceX is also headed for sucess since aquiring a multi-billion dollar contract with NASA, not to mention contracts with private firms as well.

Just as the auto industry was telling us that some silicon valley start-up has no idea how to run a car company, we were told a private company could not compete with NASA. Yet SpaceX has, at considerably less cost and with nothing but current rocket technology that Elon refined to make it more cost effective.

I have a folder of all these negative articles (I'm adding this one) so that come 2013 when Tesla begins to show a profit and electric cars become more and more the choice for consumers, I can write each one of these authors to explain their faulty reasoning to me.

In the meantime, I am still heavily invested in Tesla stock and my Model S.

+1 to what Klaus said...

Also, I have also noticed that the Motley Fool is very negative on Tesla. Additionally, all of their Tesla articles end with an invitation to discover the next great Apple takeoff stock. It seems clear that the Fool has a definite game plan against Tesla, while trying to promote other stocks. It does not seem to be "unbiased market advise."

As for the article itself, I think the fool misses the boat in several respects. The fool bases his entire financial projection on the Model S. Now, don't get me wrong, I do believe that the Model S is a make or break step for Tesla. As a reservation holder, I also believe that it will be make and not break. However, the Model S is also just the next step. The article does not mention the Model X (unveiling in a few weeks), or the Blue Star, or the next generation Roadster. I would have to believe that the factory start up costs are high, but that bringing on new models would be at significantly decreased costs, and therefore increased margins.

Lastly, the article doesn't consider Tesla's intellectual property as the market moves forward. Clearly, other market players have recognized Tesla's lead in this area, with both Mercedes and Toyota now invested in Tesla and using Tesla's products. Look at it this way, Tesla's current market cap is ~2.7 billion dollars. If the market moves strongly toward electric vehicles (yes, this is still a bet), Tesla's intellectual property may well be worth its current market cap.

Could the Motley Fool be right that Tesla doesn't succeed? Of course they could, but not for the reasons listed by the fool. Tesla still needs to deliver on it's first large production vehicle, which then has to prove itself in the market. It's a tough economy and there are a lot of forces against electric vehicles. As Elon said at the Model S beta unveiling, there are a lot of powerful people and groups who do not want the Model S (or Tesla) to succeed.

If you believe that electric vehicles are the future, and if you believe that Elon can deliver on the Model S and that it will be a great car, then you should definitely be invested in Tesla. If you are uncertain of any of those, then proceed with caution and don't buy Tesla stock just because it's "the next thing."

If it helps how you feel, Bob Lutz thinks they are going to succeed.

http://www.green.autoblog.com/2011/11/10/bob-lutz-i-honestly-think-tesla...

Motley Fool....next April 1st, he could be the joke of the day. A worst case scenario is that the profits from Spacex would initially subsidize the development of future TM products. I was not aware that TM asked for an additional loan from the government.

You have to understand that the articles in the motley fool are likely a form of gorilla advertising. Every "article" ends with a hook about some mysterious stock they recommend. Just click on the link and fill out the form please...they also recycle their " analisys " over and over.
Read that article a little closer and you realize it doesn't hold water.

TM did NOT ask for additional loans from the government. Infact, they have only used about halh of their first loan.

Tesla was just about to ask for a loan:

http://blog.sfgate.com/energy/2011/09/23/tesla-another-loan-please/

However, they quickly figured out that it would be difficult to get it approved, so they pulled the request before the application was submitted.

http://blog.sfgate.com/energy/2011/09/29/tesla-loan-on-second-thought-ne...

So, you're right Klaus, Tesla never did in fact ask for an additional loan. However, they originally had planned to ask for one.

I've gone through the DOJ process several times trying to win contacts and know the DOE process is very long (read: Years) and TM only started the application, as do several companies, that never intend to go through the entire process unless their plans go off the rails....anyway, I digress

The author, Jeremy Bowman, tends to just write about pure financials and doesn't seem to have other insights. Here's his recent 50 for reference: http://www.fool.com/author/1957/index.aspx

Here's a good example of him being wrong and then saying lots of good things about a company: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/12/i-was-wrong-about-starb...

He points out:

1. The importance of leadership
2. Don't discount brand equity

and finally this gem:

Be wary of personal bias
While it's helpful to observe and make judgments on potential investments, you can't let your personal experience cloud investment judgment. Though I wasn't a frequent customer of Starbucks, thousands of other people obviously were. I should've realized the importance of that. It's hard to walk down a city street in the morning without seeing a Starbucks cup in a few hands.

I very much appreciate all the comments by you senior forum members. It's very helpful. Thanks for your thoughtfulness and taking time to reply.

In seven years the patents that TM has accrued will run out. Will they continue to advance the technology (new patents)in order to continue their "dominance" in EV? If they don't, many other auto manufacturers will adapt TM's technology and use it to build their own EV. This will not be good for their stock price.

I thought it was more like 20 years...

I have US and Canadian patents. I believe that it is seventeen years.

Depends when they were granted, of course. If they're now 10 yrs old, there's 7 yrs left. I'm sure there's a wide range.

IAC, execution and willingness to control overheads are what make the long-term difference. And Elon has done miracles in that regard. I don't think the Bigs can duplicate that, without selling (for a long time) at a loss. And even then, execution and imagination are critical. And there, the Bigs have a very spotty record.

So, aside from new patents, Tesla is not un-armed. Nor is it bomb- and bullet-proof. Game on!


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