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Valuation

Just about every analyst, article and some longs are concerned at Tesla's valuation. Yes, the stock is expensive looking back, based on balance sheet, income statement, etc. What these folks are missing in the tremendous leverage that the technology, manufacturing model and SC network will enable in the future. Over time, Tesla will keep improving the battery tech with lower costs and higher energy density... there is nobody close. The cost/KW-hr will fall below $200 if it has not done so already. A 85 KW-hr pack will cost around $10,000.

The rest of the car? The electric auto design is very simple... nothing like ICE. With automation, it will be much cheaper than a comparable ICE auto. Plus the simple design is suitable for a hi level of automated that is not possible with ICE autos... they have complex ICE, transmission, pollution control, assembly processes, etc.

In most manufacturing operations, until volume kicks, they loose money. Look at the PE of Boeing or even Ford during the recessions. Most loose money, if they do not it is over 100. At least with Tesla sales are expected to grow hi triple digits in 2013-2014 and even 2015-2016+ with Model X.

In terms of the cost of energy worldwide, it is a 1/10 of comparable gasoline ICE. I am not talking about Norway where a 16 US fill-up costs $160 and charging an 85 KW-hr pack may cost $3 if not free in public places. That is a disruptive tech and business model!

If you look at chart of General Motors in 1915 you will see the stock broke out at around 80 and went to around 550, That is around 600%. That would put TSLA at around 280. A better comparison would be QCOM back in 1999. The stock had it's first buy point at 7.60 compared to TSLA's first buy point at 40.10 and ended up going up around 25 times to 200. That would put TSLA at around 1000. A lot of people might think that's crazy but we are entering a new Super Cycle in the market and TSLA is one of the New Leaders in this cycle. The Institutions who control stocks need a lot of liquidity and at around 2 billion a day 50 day avg dollar volume it doesn't get any better.

Tesla may be producing and selling 800-1,000 MS/wk due to manufacturing efficiencies, geographic expansion and supercharger deployment. Tesla could easily manufacture and sell 50,000 MS/year going forward into 2014. In 2015 MX production and sales could also reach close to 50,000/year... or a combined sales of 100,000/year, especially if the supercharge deployment goes as planned in North America, Western/Central/Northern Europe, Greater China (Taiwan, HK, Mainland China), Japan. ASP has been running at 90,000+ and should continue for such small volumes.

Revenues of $9+B and gross margins of 25% ( think they will be higher unless Tesla cut prices) are likely. Gross profit of $2.25B, expenses of $750M means pretax profit of $1.5B. Effective tax rate for Tesla will be minimal with cumulative losses, credits, accelerated depreciation, etc... 20% at the most. Net profit after tax of $1.2B could be possible. Do the math for valuation of what is essentially a tech company.

The big money is if Tesla disrupts the ICE market in the mass market with falling prices and higher performance of MS, MX - and Gen 3. As a long I bought starting in the 35-40 range and then sold 20% at 107.

Most of the analysts are clueless and the shorts, even less. I suspect many have never driven the car, let alone visit the factory. Most of the reports coming out have factual errors.

I got cold feet and sold my shares at 185. I was planning to buy it back when it goes down, but I am not sure if it has bottomed out yet.... My guess is, it will go down to the mid 160's.

Great stock in the long run, but today's price correction was pretty much predictable.

The fire today could influence the stock price for the next few days or weeks.

Wayne--days, not weeks. No real store here, and the more intellignet pundits have figured out that if you strike a large metal object at highway speeds, any vehicle has the opportunity to be damaged and fail, or even catch fire. The shorts were praying, but have still lost the game...


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