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Edwards.com EV newsletter recommendations

Got the newsletter a few moments ago. They split the EV category into over and under 40K. Their comment on the over 40K:

"Price is little or no object in this category, so the top choice is a no-brainer: the 2013 Tesla Model S EV. With its sleek all-aluminum body, five-passenger luxury interior and powerful battery-electric drive system, the Tesla simply has no competition. Its only downside is that as a battery-electric car it has limited range, although it goes a lot farther per charge than other EVs...."

Elon, come on already - announce the next round of super chargers and this talk about limited range will go away:-)

One thing is building super chargers and the other is extend the battery range. In five or ten years people might think the super chargers are too closely spaced.

carlk - was thinking the same when Elon hinted at a future 500 mile range battery. How does Tesla balance the need of current owners with the potential of much more range in the not so distant future? I guess it will always be a moving target.

the superchargers probably still need to be in 150 mile radii as you dont know where one starts a journey. Also, while there are likely options for a 500 mile battery, it will be costly and mostly a waste as 90+% of driving would not need more than the 200. so the SC network extends those as well and keeps the cost to purchase down. I think once the SCs are installed, the 500 mile battery is out, gas tops $5 and gen III is out, Tesla will skyrocket.

IIRC it was MB asking Tesla to build an EV drive train for them, not the other way 'round. You can predict whatever you want, just don't be too sure of yourself.

For Noel, why do you think the genIII is out if gas hits $5? I would think that the genIII would be more relevant for Tesla at that point...in fact, for long term stability, I think the genIII should come out before the X as this would improve their bottom line and increase production substantially...heck, I would even hope they have all wheel drive on the genIII. Then, once they get production and sales up and running, then they could announce the X.

Noel, forget my last post...After re-reading your post, I am now sure you meant out being sold in the market. I still think genIII should come before model X. The genIII will have much more impact on the market if it is priced to start in the low $30k range.

@ ginsbergr except the passion for the model X is real, and there are quite a few reservations already. I know of 3 people who are quite sold on the X, in almost the same way I was taken by the S, and they are just waiting and saving their money. The model X will sell well, and have good margin, as well as increase the target customer range to include those who want an AWD SUV. Would be a mistake to disappoint these passionate customers by telling them you will delay the car they already have a reservation for!

@ginsbergr - yes thats how I meant It - as being available, I could have used better wording for that...

ginsberg;
GenIII is a much tougher target than ModelX. It is only profitable at large volumes, and needs (at least one) new production line, probably more. Different body material (cost) and different skateboard. The MX shares all those factors with the S.

Brian and imherkimer; I agree that the Model X will be well received and it is really just an extension of the Model S which makes it's economies of scale much more plausible meaning that profit will be higher...my thought is that both the S ad X are very niche vehicles catering to the more affluent (limited audience), And, of course, they are halo cars. It would just be nice to get the GenIII out to the public sooner than later to still keep the edge and leadership position in this arena. I have to believe that Audi, BMW, MB and even the domestic car companies are now taking a much more serious look at Tesla and having meetings about how they can take advantage of this new market (actually producing an EV that is stylish and attractive with excellent range) and come out with an affordable and attractive EV that targets the mainstream car buyer. The longer Tesla waits, the more opportunity for some other car company to capitalize on getting to this audience 1st.

Edwards.com? Do you mean Edmunds.com?

Tesla couldn't produce the Gen III next if they wnted to. It would bankrupt them. Which, I suppose, is another way of saying the same thing Brian H already said.

@Ginsberg

How are any of the other companies going to get the range a Tesla gets? If they had figured that out they would have had a car on the market a long time ago.

This is the massive advantage, barrier to entry, tesla has over the other companies no matter how much money and scalability they have at the moment. They have no idea how to do what tesla is doing with energy storage.

Gen iii will not only get the miles per charge, but it will be a fantastic drive and attractive unlike what is being put out by the others. There is no market for ugly cars that don't get the range. But the market for a tesla at 30k is gigantic.

Tesla knows this in their gut. This is why it is so important to scale properly, learn how to produce at the highest standards, achieve the desired advancements in energy storage, then come to market. Do it right and the rest will follow.

jk;
+1

Don't undertake vast projects with half-vast plans!

I agree with all of your comments...but do you think that the other car companies are not now presently buying the Model S and reverse engineering the car and their energy storage to learn more about this technology. This happens all the time.

@gingsbergr

Secrets in the the battery management software. However, if they do come out with a strangely similar battery pack, then patent infringement and another cash flow for tesla to apply to geniii development from awarded damages.

@Carefree and everyone

It is my belief that take about limited range won't go away until EV's are fully adopted, by which time everyone will be claiming that they always had understood everything about EV's OR there is a radical overnight improvement in range of newer cars (rather than gradual), though I don't think the latter will happen.

It's kind of like how some people thought cel phones were stupid or that people looked silly using them or that they couldn't ever imagine needing one, but now no one remembers that. One day it just seems like it's always existed and there's nothing weird about it and everyone understands it, and they can't remember how differently people thought before.


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