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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,040 (December 28, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 602 (December 25, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,201 – December 28, 2012

Net Total: 19,175 – December 28, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Despite a small lull just before Christmas, sales are averaging around 90/day (~33k/year) since the MT COTY bump. See graphs here

As of December 28, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2012, and Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

December 31 2012 (23,201*1,376)/1,373 = 23,252
December 31 2013 (23,201*1,741)/1,373 = 29,419
:) ↑
.
December 31 2012 extrapolation from July 1 2012 base:
13,260 + (23,201 - 13,260)*184/181 = 23,366
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (23,201 - 18,337)*61/58 = 23,453
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 16.9 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 54.9 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 83.9 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there will be over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

US P 17,213 just reported on TMC.

@michiganmodels: Is Japan included in the "Europe/Asia" reservations? If so, can you break those out, as they're RHD, which reportedly won't start production until late 2013? The other major RHD regions, UK/AUS/HK, are already broken out. Thanks.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,213 (December 30, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 602 (December 25, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,374 – December 30, 2012

Net Total: 19,348 – December 30, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

As of December 30, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2012, and Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

December 31 2012 (23,374*1,376)/1,375 = 23,390
December 31 2013 (23,374*1,741)/1,375 = 29,594
:) ↑
.
December 31 2012 extrapolation from July 1 2012 base:
13,260 + (23,374 - 13,260)*184/183 = 23,428
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (23,374 - 18,337)*61/60 = 23,458
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.0 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 55.2 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 84.0 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there will be over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

Just got US res # 17468

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,468 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 602 (December 25, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,629 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 19,603 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Canada res P624

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,468 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,651 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 19,625 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,711 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,894 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 19,868 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,773 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 23,956 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 19,930 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,826 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 24,009 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 19,983 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Wow. Only 17 away from 20,000 and still 2 hours from the new year on the west coast.

Someone please just reserve right before the new year so we know!

cpranzi;
They have to post somewhere on the forums for mm to find it. Tesla does not update him. His number(s) will therefore usually be a bit low.

typo: cprenzi. Sarry! ;)

As of December 31, 2012 (subject to update), projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2012, and Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

December 31 2012 (24,009*1,376)/1,376 = 24,009
December 31 2013 (24,009*1,741)/1,376 = 30,378
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
December 31 2012 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*184/184 = 24,009
December 31 2013 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*549/184 = 32,072
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
December 31, 2012 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*61/61 = 24,009
December 31, 2013 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*426/61 = 57,948
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.4 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.4 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 93.0 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there are over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

It will be interesting to see how the reservation trend goes now that the price increase has taken effect.

The recent bump could be due to folks canceling and then re-booking .. any tracking of cancellations?

No cancellation tracking, other than deducing them from the quarterly/annual financials. Best such estimate currently is 4,100 -- though the "churn" you refer to is likely to boost that.

MichiganmodelS' "net total" above subtracts these "known" cancellations and will be adjusted as reliable information comes available.

mm;
suggestion -- if possible, for a couple of days include/report only new #s as of Dec. 31 to try and get an accurate y/e reading.

Corr:

As of December 31, 2012 (subject to update), projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2012, and Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

December 31 2012 (24,009*1,376)/1,376 = 24,009
December 31 2013 (24,009*1,741)/1,376 = 30,378
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
December 31 2012 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*184/184 = 24,009
December 31 2013 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*549/184 = 32,072
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
December 31, 2012 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*61/61 = 24,009
December 31, 2013 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*426/61 = 57,948
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.4 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.4 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 93.0 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there are over 15K unfilled reservations at year end.

Corr:

As of December 31, 2012 (subject to update), projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2012, and Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

December 31 2012 (24,009*1,376)/1,376 = 24,009
December 31 2013 (24,009*1,741)/1,376 = 30,378
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
December 31 2012 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*184/184 = 24,009
December 31 2013 13,260 + (24,009 - 13,260)*549/184 = 32,072
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
December 31, 2012 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*61/61 = 24,009
December 31, 2013 18,337 + (24,009 - 18,337)*426/61 = 57,948
:) ↑

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 17.4 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 58.4 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 93.0 :) ↑

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there are over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 17,849 (December 31, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,145 (December 27, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 24,032 – December 31, 2012

Net Total: 20,006 – December 31, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

Interesting to see how many days pass before we get post new years reservation post.

I am expecting about a month of drop off in reservations (my Scientific Wild Ass Guess SWAG)

December 31, 2013 reservation projection taking the daily reservation rate since October added to MM's December 31, 2012 count.

365 X 93 = 33,945 +24,032 = 57,977

less 33,000 deliveries (3,000 for 2012 and 30,000 est for 2013)
Less 8,797 cancellations (est 30% for first 10,000, 20% for the second 10,000 and 10% thereafter)

I increased the cancellation estimates to better reflect the already known cancellations as well as the number of customers who might have cancelled and re-reserved at the end of December. I also increased the production estimate to 30,000 to reflect the likelihood that the factory can and will increase production above the initial 20,000 annual rate to respond to the surging demand.

57,977 - (33,000 + 8,797) = 16,180

Projected wait list Dec. 31, 2013 at end of first full year of production: 16,180

Substitute your own production, cancellation and reservation rates to get your own preferred estimate.


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