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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Bump

bump

I'm not sure that Tesla is using reservation #'s anymore. Heard some mention of that in the reservation thread at TMC.

that would explain a lot actually; anybody else know anything about this? Guess that would kill our tracking ability.

It could also be that new reservation holders are no longer 'innovators' or 'early adopters'. 'Early Majorities' are not as likely to participate in these forums. If so, the bad news is- tougher to track reservations. The good news is that we may have moved into more main stream buyers.

Yeah, if you are near one, visit a store, and see if you can winkle a just-issued res# out of a new customer, or the staff! No names required.

michigan;
Latest info, afaik, is :
jkirkebo | February 20, 2013
... datapoint from TMC: 19,325 Feb.17th.

have you "deconstructed" the data in the shareholder's conference/letter yet?

Reserved 25 Feb 2013 and my reservation number is RN328601.

Blue, 60 kWh, air suspension.

Signed pre-delivery paperwork last night. Estimated delivery on paperwork stated "March-April."

Now to try to sell my current car..

bkc - did you get any other number than the RN? It seems Tesla is really no longer issuing sequential numbers??

Latest TMC EU reservation:
The #2891 reservation was apparently made on February the 23rd. (Norway)

Carefree- Yep.. just got an email after the countersign was complete and at the bottom it now shows "Model S #19,542 RN328601"

Not sure if this helps any with the overall tracking.

I'm in Texas by the way.

Brian

Thanks bkc - that does indeed help. Good to know that they still issue sequence numbers.

bkc - where did you find the sequence number?

I know I have seen mine in the past, was in the 19,000 range but can't find it anywhere now. I finalized 2/19, so I was just curious how many other people finalized in the 7 days between us. Would be a max of 542 since I was at least 19,000.

Very small grey text at the bottom of the "Your Model S paperwork is complete‏" email. It doesn't show up anywhere on My Dashboard.

Finally! A new res #. Thanks bkc.

I'll let Brian H and michiganmodels run the proper numbers, but it looks like 33 North America res per day since Feb 8 - 12,000 per year.

It is great that we finally got a res #, but the Feb announcement of Dec results taught is that most people who cancel don't tell us on the forum.

They must have changed the mailer in the last week then because I don't have it in the e-mail or the paperwork attached. I am pretty sure it did list it on the MyTesla section of the website but they got rid of that in the past week as well.

In Europe, got RN327598, sequence number 2853 on feb 20. Got an unofficial confirmation I will get my MS 85kw before January.

looks like they are eliminating the ability to track reservation rates. I always wondered why they let us track this information.

The RN is not useful or meaningful if you're wetware, not hardware. Computer tracking randomized, apparently.

Sandman;
It was supposed to represent the sequence of order processing and fulfillment. In practice it seems to come after batching of just about any kind in priority, though.

Sandman - reservations are only good as long as you don't make cars. With MS in production it is obsolete. For MS process will be : design car on line, place order & down payment, receive car. What will now be the key is order sequence, but I don't think TM will make that available, you will just get a delivery window.

Yep, I agree that the res # means nothing from a "when am I going to get my car" perspective. Just want to make sure I understand because I think Tesla made this change because they don't want people to have visibility into the order/res rate.

For example, if I know that as of Feb 1, that the reservation number was 19,000. Then I find that at the end of Feb the reservation number is 20,500. Doesn't that tell me that the number of reservations made was 1500 in Feb. Knowing that Tesla has changed the process to speed up conversion from reservation to firm order, can't we assume that Tesla received 1400-1500 orders in Feb? If I know that and I know the average unit price($72k-ish) for an S, then can't I estimate the gross orders entered for the month and also the book-to-bill ratio(assume 400 cars/week). 1600 produced for Feb. Book-to-bill below 1.0(i.e. 1500/1600).

If above is correct, isn't the sequenced res # very sensitive information that Tesla shouldn't be and shouldn't have been publishing. Thanks in advance.

Yes, even if you know gross orders, but we still don't know cancellations, which means we don't know net orders. The larger than expected cancellations for Dec quarter and March quarter was one of the reasons for the stock to go down.

@ sandman: +1

Maybe this thread should be private?

sandman;
TM never published the info, but did issue #s to reservers - with the warning no production position was assured or promised. They then blabbed, and big ears listened (here and at TMC). TM employees confessed that the resulting guesses and graphs were pretty accurate. But things happened, and P1 got his car after P1000.

As for production, Elon said that knowing VINs would give the curious pretty decent access to that count, but that TM would not be providing them openly to the press, etc.

As for "sales", remember that TM books them only on COD.

Elon stated they could run all this year with no stores (but that leaves online orders, of course).

@Brian H - I think he was suggesting that there's enough momentum in the reservations to carry them over the 20k mark for CY13.

@Hills: Given that you finalize as soon as you reserve now, why would there be any cancellations? If you aren't ready to finalize, there's absolutely no point in reserving. Once you finalize, you can't cancel (or at least not without losing your $5000). There should be no cancellations going forward.

Any new numbers today?, bump!


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