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OLD THREAD; DO NOT USE (was "Post Your Newly Assigned VINs Here")


A lot depends on Tesla Motors being able to produce enough cars; it keeps cash flowing, the stock price up, critics at bay, employees & equipment busy, and suppliers happy. Also, Elon Musk often states projections for how many cars the company will be producing.

To get a rough estimate of Tesla's Model S production, we ask new customers to post your VINs on this thread (which replaced this thread). I then update the spreadsheet graphic below to reflect the past 2 months' production rate estimates.

To post your VIN, leave a comment with the following information:
A) Your VIN:
B) The date you finalized your order (see below if that's not clear):
C) The date your VIN was issued to you (appeared on your "My Tesla" web dashboard):

Your "finalized" date is the date that your order was submitted into production. This is, by default, 2 weeks after you place your deposit, but you can waive that 2-week period if you want your car to enter production sooner. Once your order has been finalized, your status on your "My Tesla" web dashboard will be updated to reflect that.

IMPORTANT: If you do NOT want your name/user ID or VIN shown on the spreadsheet, I can black it out to protect your privacy, but still be reflected in the data. If that's the case, feel free to email me your information at I will never share it with anyone.

The latest version of the spreadsheet will always be visible below. VINs issued more than 2 months ago will fall off as they are replaced by newer ones.

Click image for full-sized chart.

Questions or suggestions about the analysis are welcome. Thanks for posting your VINs and relevant dates.
- Craig

Thanks Craig. Love watching the progress.

Another data point that would be nice is the delivery date. I know this will vary by location, but that is one thing I have spent a lot of time on the forums trying to figure out: When will I get my hands on it based on others that confirmed around the same time (VIN close in number).

Just a thought...

@ Zero EV

I don't think that is a good idea, at least not in this thread.

Let Craig do it as he has mentioned it in his first post in this thread.

@ZeroEV: The problem with the delivery date is that it can vary tremendously based on numerous factors that may be impossible to determine for any particular customer. For example, some people delay their deliveries due to travel. Others, who are located near Fremont, pick them up directly at the factory, saving up to a week of shipping time, if not more. Also, there is the whole batching phenomenon, which I believe advances some orders ahead of others due to production convenience. This obviates the FCFS rule regularly. So, while it could be useful, I doubt you'd get much better accuracy than a general sense from posters' anecdotes. And then the whole EU production thing throws a lot of our old estimates out the window.

Vin 17324
Finalized 7/15/2013
Vin Issued 7/18/2013

Perfect, @unleashthesun...greatly appreciated!

I would make this a private posting. You don't want every idiot wall street analyst to have access to this data. There is a reason Tesla no longer assigns a sequential number when you reserve a car!

@ Carefree

That is not a good idea.

The flow of higher VIN numbers will shut the mouth of people who are against EV's.

Even if only 1 VIN number is posted in this thread (out of every 100 Tesla Model S EV's that are produced) is enough to get a good picture of what is going on at the Tesla Fremont factory.

That's an impressive chart. During our factory tour earlier this week, we noticed a video screen congratulating the employees on 517. I think this may be the number of cars produced a week. I also believe the factory is idle on weekends, which is why we decided to have delivery on a weekday in Fremont. We wanted to see the factory in action. Also, does anyone know if cars shipped to Europe or Asia have a different VIN sequence? Thanks. The future looks great.

VIN 17889
Finalized July 23
Vin Issued July 26

Finalized July 20
Vin Issued July 23

Thanks. The graph has been updated.

To anyone else, if you finalized your order in the last two months and your VIN doesn't appear on the first page of this thread, please post your info or email it to me. Thanks.

They are really smashing it out of the park right now compared to official guidance at Q1 conference call. Buckle up.

7/8 finalized
Pickup scheduled 8/15 Fremont
Vin 16927

It doesn't affect much but my vin is 4 digits too high. 14061

This is now Q3, and the Euro sales are distorting things.

Impressive and clever analysis. I was wondering about it too. Just emailed you mine, no posting of my info please.

The store person told me to expect 8 weeks lead time for 85. To my delight, the delivery guy asked for an appointment in 4 weeks 2 days after my order. When asked what happened, he listed the following reasons for the lead time delta in disproving my concern of potential ordering slow down:

- supply chain improvement reduced parts wait time
- euro final assembly in place, relieving US assembly load from ~500 to 300 in the US and 250 in EU

Assuming theses were the weekly targets in 3Q, my very rough calculation = 4750 + (4750+ 550 x 52/4)/2 + 550 x 52/2 = 25,000. This is to assume that 4Q sales = that of 3Q, which is conservative. Amazingly, my number is not too different from yours :-). Does this mean that the 21,000 2013 target is going to be hit out of the park? Guess we'll know more after Aug 7?

Yep, production closing in on demand, but demand still growing. "Every delivered car generates 2-3 more sales." Elon.

I was one of the guys who saw '5,454 cars produced 2nd quarter' on a monitor at the factory tour during Teslive. That's only slightly over 400/week. Elon, Gilbert, (others?) in video segments have said they are producing over 500/week. That's at least 6,500/quarter. Yeah, they'll get to 21,000 in 2013...around Halloween.

500/wk by the end of the quarter, not necessarily throughout.

I think we might see some postings of higher VIN numbers in the coming week or two.

Craig, thanks for updating the info in the spreadsheet in this thread. Cheers mate.

18201 Ordered and finalized on this last friday (7.26). ViN on My Tesla page today.

18030. Just got a vin last Thursday, finalized 7/11. Had a significant delay between finalizing and vin assignment nobody else seems to have, mine is a p85 without plus.

169 ViN jump... Orders are looking good.

In September 2013 somebody will post the first VIN number beyond the 20000 VIN.

From Yahoo MB so take it with a few grains of salt but a 20000 VIN could show up well before the end of this qtr.

"Production switching to 70% Europe 30% US in August according to Tesla sales rep"
"I was in store yesterday and overheard sales rep tell customer that waiting time in US may go from 4 to 8 weeks now to 4 to 6 months in next few months. When I asked why she said that in August they are going to start producing 70% of the cars for Europe in August."

"I was skeptical as well so I quizzed the sales rep a little and she said that they had all just recieved an email instructing them to notify U.S customer to expect longer delays. She said that they are going to focus on European countries where steering wheel is on left side first. I guess 4 month delays are feasible if they cut production for Us customers down to 30%. I was actually a little concerned that demand was low enough in U.S. that they could cut production for us that much."

Sounds like they want to catch up on European backlog and then fit production to combined demand as they clear the resulting US bottleneck.

Advance notice: the VIN graph may go offline for a while today. It's served from my personal webserver, which is in my house, and my house may be getting its main service wiring upgraded today. Nothing permanent.

17149 left the factory this am en route to the chicago area!

18170 Finalized 07/26

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