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Tesla long stocks

Tried to post an article in the "General discussion" but it is totally overwhelmed by some russian f.. who make spams.

But I will try here for those with interest in TSLA stocks.
It is maybe for those who think the rise has been to steep and are considering to sell out. Don't:)

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2013/09/28/an-unconventional-approach-to-val...

@XS40 I read that article you posted. Here is a quote from it "Under these assumptions, Tesla would trade at $288, giving investors an annualized return of about 10% over the next five years."

That's why you should sell. 10% annualized isn't enough given the execution risk. They made some big assumptions in order to arrive at that $288 price. Lot's of things going well should amount to a lot better than 10% annualized. You'll probably earn 10% in a business with less risk, like Wells Fargo.

I love the company though.

That's a useful analysis. It does leave out competition but it sure looks as if Tesla has a lead of a few years. Still someone could go straight to a $35k EV with 200+ mile range, or corner the battery supply etc.

Yet there are so many Tesla features to like that the usual manufacturers have been slow to achieve, like those crash tests. Sure they can copy pop-out door handles and a big touch screen, but Tesla will still have the reputation for having put it all together in an all-new package that wows the reviewers and tops the safety tests.

The other aspect which I would have included in such an article is the Tesla word-of-mouth achievement. I cannot think of any other new product where this has been so effective (the iphone was aided by so many full-page ads that it is difficult to peel off the word-of-mouth factor).

This can lead to exponential growth (the next increment is proportional to the number already present). If every Tesla owner is indirectly responsible for one new sale per year, then the number of Teslas on the road in successive years goes up as 1,2,4,8,16.... And that's without advertising.

After reading that article, seems like a good time to short the stock.

I've been holding the stock since 90 and I am starting to get nervous keeping a long position. I am waking up at night worrying about it. Part of me says to sell and another part of me hopes it will go higher. Though decision.

There is a useful three-part series on Tesla's competition here.

I only invested what I could afford to loose. I plan to keep my Tesla stocks for four or five more years (I bought them last September at $27.90 per share).

As long as everything stays reasonably on schedule, and there is no real competition, I'm staying in until Gen3 has been out 1-2 years. If things are still looking good, I'll stay in longer. Should be over 1,000 by then, maybe more.

Investing in Tesla (my own personal take on it):

Sure, if you bought stock already to make money on the investment, go ahead and sell and take the profit!

If you bought and concerned that it could go even higher, keep it! It's fun to read everything about how the shorts are losing their shirts.

If you think the price is going to fall because it's overpriced, DO NOT SHORT THE STOCK. There is too much passion for it to drop unless there is a day with very bad news. Then buy it when it's low. (if that happens).

If you have not bought and want to make money, don't buy it! It's just too volatile.

If you have not bought any stock and want to own a part of a great company, buy it at any price!

I've been flamed before for saying it but profit taking (read that as NOT selling your entire position) in a big run up stock like TSLA has never lost anyone a dime:) Paper profits are just that till they are sold. I'm very long TSLA but in a %500 increase stock at some point you just get too much of your total wealth involved no shame in re-balancing. Any leveraged play with a stock as volatile TSLA is Vegas level gambling without the free drinks. IMHO YMMV.

Relax people. Did Elon sell any of his shares? He got much more at risk than you do even relative to his fortune. A great company like Tesla don't come by very often. You are extremely luck if you own some of its stock.

As I said before, compare Tesla to Priceline. Priceline stock is now over $1000 per share. They don't actually make anything and are in a market with lots of competition (when I search travel, 5 windows pop up with offers). To my thinking, Priceline is over-valued.

Tesla, on the other hand, manufactures an attractive product like no other. I don't view TSLA as over-valued.


Looks to me as if there are buy programs accumulating the stock, since corrections go nowhere and it is otherwise a smooth rise. My guess is that funds with new cash to invest each month are trying to build up a position.


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