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Tesla as an opportunity of investment

I belive that all people that are reading this post think that Tesla is a great Car Company, the most advanced, the most innoative and the most oriented at the future.
This is the reason for which I'm evaluating tesla as an opportunity of investment and i would like to discuss with you about this.

I don't see Elon Musk stepping down as CEO of SpaceX. It is more his baby than Tesla. There are plenty of people on the Earth that can do cars, but very few that can do inter-planetary travel.

@Tiebreaker, I totally agree. There is simply no chance Musk will voluntarily relinquish control of SpaceX.

Telsa is not second fiddle right now, but it will succeed or fail over a far shorter time scale. By the early 2020's it will be all over, one way or the other. Success or failure.

SpaceX won't be done till thousands of people are travelling to Mars every launch window. That's a much further away objective, even with Musk running it.

Tesla needs to focus in optimizing its manufacturing operations to become efficient and reduce labor costs while maintaining hi quality. Same thing with their supply chain and logistics. At this stage of the game, they go to generate serious cash flow, even GAAP profits, sooner than later. It means they got to get their act together in this quarter. As long as they got demand, they should be able to run their factory efficiently. Deploy SC asap.

With limited resources, the company has to focus its resources at the most decisive opportunity. It means Model S at this time. They got to defer Model X capex and resources. Put GenIII on ice. GenIII will not be viable without battery breakthroughs that double energy density and cut cost/KW-hr by half.

In the CC, Elon alluded to focussing on efficiency and cost reductions. He has very capable people running this operation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUgDcA1pZAM

Remember that the purpose of GenIII is not to make profit for TM; the purpose of profit and TM is to make the GenIII -- and hence transform car travel.

I agree with Bubba2000, Tesla now needs to improve manufacturing efficiency and negotiate better deals with suppliers. electric cars have the potential to be cheaper to manufacture than ICE..

Other than incremental improvements in Li-ion battery chemistry, there is no promising battery tech in beta stage that can increase KW-hr/kg and reduce cost significantly. There are a lot of promising disruptive techs, but they will take a long time to be sorted out and tested. Then production facilities will have to set-up, against tested before they are considered for BEV. That puts GenIII several years away.

Tesla best opportunity is to optimize its manufacturing operations in a major way and reduce labor dramatically - while improving quality with tighter tolerances and quality control. Not easy, but can be down following Deming Principles.

The other big challenge for them is bringing cost down of component purchased from suppliers, while maintaining quality. They plan to produce 20,000 cars/year. However, there are multiple options that reduce the economies of scale. Like interior features.

No wonder Henry Ford offered one option for the Model T: Black. Would not work in a mature market of today.

In addition to the increase in superchargers (and upgrades) across the country, I hope Tesla comes out with a surprise partnership with Hilton and other hotel chains to proved Tesla approved charging stations (solar powered by Solarcity) at all locations.

Also highlight the advantages of a duel charger in the car, so be ready to go full charger in a matter of hours. Almost like a mini supercharger at each hotel. So drive like a wild an around town if you want with no worries.

Got to get the vision out. Leave this NYT crap in the dust.

Stock price would go wild. People want to believe and buy a crap load of shares, just need a little reassurance. This could help a lot and is relatively cheep and expedient.

Mini Supercharger? Useful? Yes, I think so. Good idea.

Minisuperchargers might give the big hotel chains green street cred as well as a boost in brand identification. Create more customers willing to travel and stay at their properties now that they get to charge for free. A value add for everyone. (Solarcity signs up each Franchise to 20 year deals.)

So much potential on so many fronts it is ridiculous.

Can't forget SpaceX in this deal --- might I point out Hilton himself wanted to make the moon a destination for guests!

And if you become a Hilton rewards member, you can fill up at the mini superchargers for free whether you stay or not...

I can't stop!!!

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-24/tesla-building-250-000-charg...

According to this article a SC station with 4-6 ports can cost $250,000 installed. For 100 SC, the cost would be $25M at least - no small change. Then the company will have to install close to that number in the EU. No wonder Tesla is taking its time. I do not think solar cells are worth their price. These thing suck a lot of electrical power. Better spend the money on additional SC. I think that at some point Tesla needs to start charging for electricity plus a profit to get a decent return on capital.

Like jk2014 said, mini superchargers with 240V/100 amps may give a bigger bang for the dollar. The one at home cost $2,000. They could install thousands around the country for $10M. At hotels, restaurants, starbucks, and charge for use. Something quantity beats quality. I prefer a mix.

If Hilton and other hotels would just install HPWCs, then I can charge 60M/Hr with my TBD onboard twin chargers. $1200 per stall + electrical contracting seems like a low outlay, and would get my business.
TBD = To be delivered.

Prytog -- exactly...

Prytog:
+2

Prtog:

Good idea, but why not 90 amp J1772 chargers. They are just as fast as HPWC and atractive to the entire EV community. Should be an easier sell to to Hilton, Craker Barrel, Marriot and anybody else that wants our business! GM doesn't pay a business to put in a parking lot, Tesla shouldn't have to pay for the charger.

If business wants me as a customer they need to provide what will attract me.

Ghillair --

Need a solution with Tesla brand identification in order to associate all charging with Tesla...

Like google being synonymous with search and UFC with mixed marshal arts, etc...

This is the time, when electric cars are becoming introduced on a larger scale, to create it.

jk;
Good deal for Tesla, but you may have a harder time selling a proprietary solution to hotels. Maybe 1 of each? And local owners offer to pay for the HPWC? ;)

@ghillair | FEBRUARY 27, 2013: Good idea, but why not 90 amp J1772 chargers.

I think that J1772 charging is limited to 80A because the dual onboard chargers are limited to 80A.

Brian --

Definitely need to have a mutual benefit for hotels and others... How can tesla help create new loyal customers for our business? Hope the answer turns out to promote Tesla's charging solutions.

I'm very intrigued by the new strategy to get profitable the entire year. If they make 1.5b+, and turn a profit for the year, the stock price could be well over 50. At that point, do a follow on offering, maybe 10m shares and, I don't know, but they could raise potentially 500m, 750m, or possibly 1b. How much would they need to develop geniii to be reay by 2015 at those numbers? Everyone is focusing on how much profit over the next few years, but what about this scenario?

Alex

You are correct the dual chargers can only accomodate a max of 80amp. I was reffering to J1722 charges such as the one made by Sun Country Highway in Canada. They have CS30 CS60 and CS90 chargers. To get a full 80amps a Tesla would need one of the CS90 chargers not one of the smaller ones.

I don't know if te 30, 60, 90 is a J1772 standard or just the sizes Sun Country chooses to make.

The availability of this type of charger is the other reason to order dual chargers even if you don't install an HPWC at home

Well, if a few German or Oriental majors are under the gun, TM can repeat its "distressed price equipment" scoops. Who knows what's in the works/plans/strategies for equipping the GenIII lines?

The GPS in the Model S needs to have "Trip Solution" feature. Say, I want to go from point A to point B. It should be able to tell me what should be my speed w/wo HVAC and where to charge if needed to do the trip in the shortest time. Or if I increase the speed, what are my charging options? Factor weather forecast.

Otherwise, it takes a lot research to do a trip approaching 250+ miles. My guess is that the fastest trip is to charge to 300 miles and turn HVAC off and set cruise to 50 mph.

Bubba2000 --

It seems like this would be the evolution of the software and it makes more really excited about the near future. This type of update is exactly what will demonstrate the cars ability to improve... Unlike any other car in the world...

If Elon can promote these features to the gen public, more and more people will see the long term value beyond the price tag...

In my opinion the biggest motivation to owning TM shares is because you believe in the company, the technology, and that this is where the trend will go. The stock is quite expensive, especially compared to other car companies that trade at only 3 or 5 P/E for some of them, but I would never want to buy any of them. As for Tesla, I'm keeping my eye on it and I will look for a buying opportunity when I have cash available.

As for Benz's comments:
Yes Elon Musk should hold on to his shares forever. That would be very good for him and also very good for the company because it means both a vote of confidence and an insurance policy for other stakeholders in case he decided to goof around or go senile, which is fortunately not his style. I think more companies should follow a similar model and top officers should be more exposed to the risks they put their businesses through, as Warren Buffet says.

As for your other comment about a hostile takeover, I think I read in the Q3 report that there are poison pill measures in place to prevent that from happening, which is very smart and which I love.

TM seems to me like a competent bunch of people, with a long-term vision and a great product. I think this is the right approach... only trouble is, although its really great for the company when they need to raise more cash, a lot of people recognize this already and this is what explains the rich valuation, in my opinion.

Another possibility is that Tesla got the Model S, X optimized, and the company is making a profit, Elon decides to cash out. Sell Tesla to a somebody like Toyota or even MB.

He has done that before with Zip2 and PayPal. This guy is smart, but I can not see him running a car biz till age 65 and retire. Look how fast he changes: started and sold 2 companies and started 3 more.

Just speculating.

Elon Musk is doing it because he has a vision for the benefit of humanity, and he wants to turn this vision into reality, and he really believes that is possible. He is on a mission, which he wants to accomplish. Elon Musk is not primarily doing this for the money, that is for sure. Money is important as well, but only as a tool which is required to realise certain economical things. Elon Musk is showing us the way, which he thinks is best for the future of humanity. We have some interesting times ahead of us.

Per various interviews, the internet companies were sold because they'd achieved about all they could. The two or three other fields he thought needed fixing were energy, space emigration, and the atmosphere. He's wrong about the last, but the Tesla solution is great just because of the wonderful cars it produces.

I mostly agree with Brian on this, and I would add that he was getting frustrated with some barriers, at least with Zip2, and then by the time he did Paypal it must have been clear to him that tech was in a bubble and there might not be a better time to sell than then. The mountain of money he got meant he could move on to his other interests. Computers was interesting to him, but I would argue that space and electric cars have both been at least as big, probably much bigger fascinations or passions of his. A concern for the state of the biosphere would no doubt have been another element guiding his setting of goals.

Where I don't agree with Brian is about climate change not being a cause for concern. You cannot know that everything will be okay if we keep dumping all this CO2 in the atmosphere and the oceans (indirectly through rainfall). Sure, long ago there were periods where CO2 was much more plentiful, but the rate of change is the main problem and the fact that we and most life on Earth today are not used to living in such conditions. There is already lots of effects to climate change so far, especially in the arctic. Besides, in Elon's words (I think), pumping billions of tons of carbon in the atmosphere is not an experiment we should want to be doing.

Do you want to run the experiment, especially when we don't really have to? The world has been geared towards burning fossil fuels, but it doesn't really have to be. I know it's hard to imagine without coming across as a hippie or a lunatic, but Elon is showing us the way.

The "experiment" and "rate of change" memes are bogus. There were 2 periods, one in the late 19th C. and one in the early-middle 20th C. with the same or greater rate of change, uninfluenced by man. The only correlation of CO2 and temperature, in ancient or contemporary records, is that rising temperature drives CO2 out of the oceans. Never the reverse.

All measurable effects of higher CO2 are beneficial, primarily improved plant productivity and superior water utilization and drought resistance. And on and on.

The weather records show slow warming from the depths of the Little Ice Age, coldest era since the ice sheets left -- naturally and fortunately. But a lesser recovery than from earlier cold periods in the last 10,000 years. Each recovery is weaker than the previous.

At some point, the 2-3 million year record shows, there will be a burst of wild variability and then the ice sheets will return. You won't like it.


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