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Tesla as an opportunity of investment

I belive that all people that are reading this post think that Tesla is a great Car Company, the most advanced, the most innoative and the most oriented at the future.
This is the reason for which I'm evaluating tesla as an opportunity of investment and i would like to discuss with you about this.

TSLAholic, as soon as you mention "John Petersen," most of us know the article will be a complete waste of time. No need to read.

I figured there was a good chance his name would be well known around here. Thanks!
So back to my original question. Is it possible that after the short squeeze (if one occurs at all), the stock price may drop to the 30s, making it a better buy even if going long?
Also, say the squeeze occurs, what time frame are we looking at for the price to drop? Minutes, hours, days? Any opinions?

Somebody know the isin code of some tesla options ( obviously i'm talking about the call...) ?

54 $ the highest peak ever and is trying to break the 55 resistance, think is possible see 60 $ before the release of the Q1 results ?

Short squeeze happening now? I imagine some people are getting nervous that maybe earnings will be better than expected or something, or realizing that shorting Tesla, especially since the launch of the model S, is a really foolish idea. It could be all crazy between now and May 8, but I expect from these levels that there will be a pullback after the earnings release, because I doubt news are really that good to justify a doubling of the stock in a few months.

I don't think this is "the squeeze". A true squeeze is when margin calls on more leveraged shorts trigger a rise in price that causes margin calls on the next most leveraged shorts and so on. It's like a chain reaction.

As far as I can figure, it would play out in a few hours, not minutes. Even at 7X the average volume, you need a full trading day. To do it in minutes you'd need like 100X the volume. Watch the volume.

Some shorts are getting out ahead of it, and others are covering with calls. I'd also note that some longs with large positions have an incentive to try to trigger the squeeze. I don't know if this is feasible, but if it is, they will try.

It would be fun to watch, but don't forget it might not happen at all.

Curiously, Solar City is mirroring Tesla. It was up 7.7% today, for unrelated reasons. The Stark Industries Elon Musk ETF is flying...

Timing with the supercharger announcement leading into a surprise Q1 conference call announcement could push over 60 and trigger the tsunami of hurt on shorts. Would be interesting to see it peak north of 80. And see where it lands, hopefully above 50.

Since the start of '13, TSLA is up about 75%. If that continued the rest of the year, it would be up 420% (compounded growth).

Time to up the ante (and fix some mistakes). Tesla announcement tomorrow

@RNB, is the 300,000 low?

300k is just 1% of the shares short. All it will take is some one or more major holders to call their shares and there would be squeeze. I think most shorts are in denial. They are mostly bean counters looking at financials. I doubt many have driven MS or toured the factory. Let alone understand the EMF principles of induction motors or variable frequency inverters.

I think the street is used to seeing so many BEV companies go belly up. They figure it is a sure bet shorting TSLA. Fisker, A123, Coda, etc. So they they all piled in short on TSLA and are willing to pay 20+% to borrow the shares.

Look at Elon Musk track record: Zip2, Ebay, SpaceX. Even SCTY is rocking... went from $9 after IPO to 28 peak!

Yep; to make best use of rules, it's necessary to recognize what constitutes a valid exception to them.

Wouldn't that be genius if they were able to time a follow on offering exactly when the short squeeze happens? Set the price at 200?

@jk2014, you can't do that. The offering has underwriters and must follow SEC rules to insure transparency.

It's good enough that they did the last one at $28 and could do the next one at $54, which seems to be a new support. More money, less dilution.

Any comment about this + 9 % ??

today there is the release of the q1 results.

The last hour seems to have been a response to hire a VP of Vehicle Engineering away from Aston Martin.

Very good pedigree there.

Heavy volume today today... with price taking a hit (down 6% right now to about $56). Thoughts?

It is anybody's guess what Tesla will report tomorrow and what the market reacting is going to be. However, when I look at the prospects in the short term, the big driver for demand has to be an ubiquitous Supercharger network in the highways... probably 200+ SCs costing $50M. This would drive demand from early adopters to the hi end mainstream. Instead of selling 25,000 MS, they could produce and sell 50,000 MS with 2 shifts.

In addition, the demand for MX should match MS, especially with a SC network. Look at the Porsche sales and product mix:

http://www.porsche.com/usa/aboutporsche/overview/dataandfacts/

Of the 143k Porsches sold, 83k were SUV Cayennes! Tesla could sell a measly 50,000 MX SUVs. Total sales in 3 years could reach 100k autos. At ASP=$90k, that is $9B. Gross margins should reach 30% with economies of scale, unless Tesla cuts prices to drive demand even further. Gross profit should be $2.25B to $2.7B. Make is $2.5B. If SG&A, R&D are $500M, then net profit before taxes are $2.5B. Tax rate of 40% and the net is $1.5B.

If the company is perceived as a fast grower, disruptive, etc, what kind of PE for a fast grower? 20? That is a market cap of $30B. Even with dilution, the stock price could hit $200/s before the competition wakes up. Always, got to have an exit strategy.

Just a scenario.

Intereactive Brokers has no shares left to short, down from the 300K when I posted the link, and down from the 60K I saw earlier this am. Lots can happen Wednesday, pain points likely to be tested either way. If you are new to investing be prepared to be tested. I am not playing the squeeze or the fall, I am an investor thinking of 10-20 years.

It is tough to rationalize things.

Bubba2 - Through similar logic, and Porsche as the most likely comparison (high end, limited models, rabid following, high margins) I figured Tesla worth $200/share. It's a question when the market believes that value. 2-5 years I think.

www.teslamodels.wordpress.com

This is not the SC announcement. Earnings news only. According to Elon.

Tesla First quarter result smash the expectations, in this moment i see + 19% in the after hours market, Probably this is the turning point for tesla, and i'm really glad that i invested in this company before all this results.
Looking at the future of the stock 100 $ are not so far now...
I'm seriously evaluating of buy more...

I now see 25%+, breaking $70 after-market. 4X IPO price, just as a reminder.

I bought additional shares today prior to the announcement, anticipating the positive numbers and wham! Looks like I made a good decision. Let's see if things settle down in a few days or continue to rocket higher. Positive upcoming events include Consumer Reports review "best vehicle we've ever tested" and further announcements from Elon. Great days hopefully ahead.

TSLA is firing on "ALL CYLINDERS" !!!!!! (get the irony there??)
Great Quarter & great outlook!!!!
All you SHORTS... prepared for the tsunami of HURT!
Way to go TSLA!!!

I hope that all the shorts have been enough smart to close their position time ago, if not, Take this !

It can only become a true short squeeze, if shareholders are unwilling to sell, thus preventing the shorts from covering their positions at reasonable prices. If the longs stand pat, the sky's the limit. An owner may want to think twice about selling this week or even next week. Perhaps not for years, as TSLA is a once in a generation shooting star.

Any information about the q1 reservation ?

Short squeezing is in full execution... do you think is possible a flexion of the stock now ?


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