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What caused TSLA stock to go up/down today?

Hoping this thread might pick up steam as TSLA stock goes through some amazing intra-day and open/closing swings due to the large short interest (I'm assuming).

For instance: Yesterday the stock dipped really low at closing so I bought. Today it jumped back up and I sold for a healthy profit.

Why did the stock dip yesterday and then rise so much today? I didn't see any news that would justify it.

I'm thinking there is a short squeeze coming sometime in the next month. The negative spin authors (recycling old fear & doubt) seem to be getting less print time. Nothing can beat the solid business plan (production thru marketing) that TSLA has made a reality.

If they start getting the deliveries out the door ahead of schedule we will be in the $40 range in no time.

Holy Macadoodle, Andy! Up $5 since Thurs 12th, 3 trading days. Steady smooth climb, too! I guess having rolling rubber meet the road is starting to register.

Volumes much higher than the preceding few days, too. Fresh squeezed shortie juice, anyone? \9-p

Just to clarify, since Thus. opening @ $31, closed Mon 16th @ $36.

At this rate, it will hit $40 again sometime Thurs 19th!

I don't think we are seeing the short squeeze yet. That steady climb will spike when the short position people decide to cut their losses. Most don't have to for a few months yet. Full disclosure: I am long on Tesla & I work in healthcare.

Lessee -- if the stock were to go up 1¢ per S delivery, by about Nov. 1 it would be $70. Then add the short squeeze spike, and ... <8-0 !!

I am sure once it's gets to cocky there will be a sudden 5 million plus trade again all at once.

With the positive write ups at Motor Trend, etc. I guessed there was some upside so jumped in at $32. At least I have a paper profit right now. :-)

Honestly, I had been expecting this since the first 10 deliveries, especialy after the great press. It was a bit perplexing when it just kind of sat there. During that time the entire market was going to hell in a handbasket over Europe, but at least TSLA was outperforming the major indexes. Then it finaly started breaking out within the last week. Kind of the moment we all expected, but it just came a few weeks late... : )

@Sudre: we have a winner. Stock down thus far today on significant volume.

No worries-- the usual purveyors of FUD are out today trying to reduce the TSLA stock price...fundamentals unchanged and trending remains positive....

Profit-taking is a more likely explanation.

I think, there is a big fear in the market about Obama loosing his election...
but it could be a combination of this and profit taking- after days of glory )

Just in this AM:

Wednesday, July 18, 7:48 AM Wunderlich Securities takes its rating on Tesla Motors (TSLA) down to Sell from Buy and slashes its price target on shares by 43% to $28. The firm expects lower production in Q3 from the automaker and says an "execution issue" needs to be resolved. TSLA -3.3% premarket.

Does this explain the change in delivery dates for Sig holders on this and TMC forums?

I wonder what kind of source they have. We will probably learn more on the next quarterly call, but that's still a couple weeks away.

Wunderlich Securities remarked, “We are lowering our estimates, rating, and target for Tesla (TSLA) on likely 3Q12 production cuts for sales of the Model S. The shares, which recently reached $36, have fallen on both profit taking and the growing realization that 3Q12 estimates are at risk, with production likely coming in at the low end of the range. While the company is sticking to its 5,000 unit forecast for 2012, how it gets there becomes a second issue for it to resolve. While we believe that TSLA is doing everything right from a business perspective and has demonstrated superiority of design, we believe the market may pause to see how it handles the execution, allowing the shares to retrace the year's gains. We are lowering our rating to Sell and our target to $28.”

Isn't Wunderlich one of the bulls on Tesla before?

Yeah, the shorts and naysayers are out in force now that it appears word of delays is leaking out. I'm long Tesla and can't wait for my delivery (P#1117), but these latest delays do make me a little nervous, from an investor perspective. But from a buyers perspective, a couple month delay is well worth it to make sure they have the quality right. Delays beyond a couple of months though would no doubt spook a number of people into cancelling and/or delaying their deliveries I think.

Curious enough, it's 10:16AM EDT and the stock climbed back up to 33.12 (down only -0.23%). Looks like it wasn't that big of a deal.

John56: "...now that it appears word of delays is leaking out."

WHAT DELAYS? Is this a rumor or does everyone know something I don't? (which is easy)

If someone knows about production delays, I would recommend starting a new thread.

All I know is from posts of reservation holders at the TMC forum who have been told that they are slowing down production somewhat due to "quality issues". Elon wants to make sure that all the early issues are cleared up before ramping up into full production mode. The latest 'slowdown' seems to be above the slow ramp up already in place. Most current sig holders that have completed their paperwork are posting that they are being told to expect November deliveries.

I think the reversal today is as a result of cooler heads prevailing and seeing this tempest in a teapot as a buying opportunity dip:

""While we cannot rule out the prospect of certain customer orders being shifted a month or two, we have discovered no evidence of any widespread production issues and believe that a handful of order delays wouldn't threaten its 2012 target of 5,000 deliveries," Chew wrote in his research report. He rated Tesla shares a buy with a $50 price target."

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see delays. Here we are a month after the Founders event and they are still showing "release candidates" at GetAmped. It looked to me that the Founders car event was timed for very specific reasons, and the they were a long way from being ready to deliver customer cars. There was still a lot of work to do in the software, the interior needs more work, the leather on the seats needs more work, they haven't set a release configuration for the "opportunity console", they are considering eliminating the traction whine, maybe movable rear head restsetc, etc.

There could be all kinds of tweaks before we see a "real" production vehicle. My guess - which is worth almost nothing and is pure speculation - is that all the ramp calculations that have been discussed are way off. Instead of a very slow ramp from now to the end of the year, I think the initial deliveries are a ways off, and then they'll very rapidly increase production once the initial config is locked in. My 2¢

12:30 - took 3 hrs to reverse the initial drop, now up from the opening.

The "Chew" statement mentioned above is here:
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Analyst+Defends+Tesla+(TSLA),+Says+Checks+Show+Considerable+Rise+in+Model+S+Reservations/7587305.html

Thanks nickjhowe. I think your 2 cents are right on. TM is too smart to have come all this way, in such a short amount of time, to leave anything to chance. In fact this may not be a delay at all to TM and rather part of their long-planned preproduction process of quality control. Get some "release candidates" out there, listen carefully and inspect thoroughly, tweak then launch. So to speak.

Tesla is getting it right the first time--momentum is forward. TSLA is doing what I expect it will--momentum is upward. I expect the Model S will be tweeked a little by the time my number comes up. This may be a good time to buy TSLA while we wait to buy our Teslas.

The Green Car Reports article seems to line up with my speculation. If they are sticking to the # by year end, but delaying the initial run then that suggests there is no fundamental problem. Sorry for the Sig folks who might have to wait a little longer, but I take this as good news, not bad. I wish other companies would avoid rushing things to market and compromising quality.

I'd prefer to wait another week or two and have them fix the problem before I get the car.

I would also like it if, when I bring my car in for the annual service, they add in all the nice stuff they later decided to put into new cars.


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