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Will Tesla be around in 3-5 years

In today world can car company still be around. Tesla is a started up company and to be successful in the future it need have a good distribution and supply chain to grow. Not easy in today world. Yes you can maybe for a small company to produce 20,000 to 100,000 and still be around but for how long. What I see Elon Musk is going to sell his company in the future. Or Telsa is going to go down. In today world where little company's are bought up by big company's. That how I see Tesla is going to survive. You need cash flow and or you not going to survive. Every small car company is own by a big major car company. Telsa has 250 patents for the electric car and what I see Elon is going to sell and make alot of money like he did with Paypal. Will Telsa 8 years warranties be honored by a take over. Who knows. Lots of major company's are starting to make electric cars. BMW and Mercedes are all ready doing that. Mercedes own 10% of Tesla. Only time will tell if I'm right or wrong. But I bed Elon Musk is going to sell.

danielccc,

The reporter may not have been acting responsibly, but it does not look intentional. Everything he did was under specific direction from TM staff. Shame on them, not him. TM is being way too defensive on the NYT article. They need to man up and admit the real range, put in more SC's, and move on. Guys like me who were oversold just have to deal with it as early adopters often must. People here blame the reporter for not plugging in overnight. I would never do that, but there are no chargers in Groton, and his assumption looks reasonable except in hindsight. Those who say he should at least have plugged into 110 don't understand these cars. The vampire load at 10 degrees while turned off is more than a 110 outlet can supply, so even if plugged in he oud have lost range miles overnight.

By he way, your comment seems to miss a fact. The guy who got 400 miles from one charge was ALSO towed away at the end. He received accolades from TM and will apparently go into the Guinness record book, but it was a stunt in my book and did not end very proudly.

This thread has delivered some interesting comments, I must say.

@ Pungoteague_Dave

I think your are right on many (financial) points. And I appreciate that you are sharing your thoughts with us. It's always good that somebody keeps his feet on the ground.

Having said that, I still personally do think that Tesla Motors are going to do just fine. Why? Well, the reason for that is that Tesla Motors have the technology that nobody else has. They just have to use it wisely. Their biggest concern should be to grow and gain financial strength. The best strategy for that is: "Slowly but surely". At the moment they should not be doing more than they (financially) can. It does not matter if they do not reveal a new EV in 2013 or even in 2014. Focus on the Model S and Model X. Make sure that both products become successful now and in the coming years. The higher the sales volumes the better.

The success of the EV depends on the density of the network of the Superchargers. Every highway should have several Superchargers, and the distance inbetween the Superchargers should be max 50 miles (80 km). Why? Simply for the conveniance of all the people. I know that it's going to take many years to build such an extensive network of Superchargers, but so be it. As long as we will keep in placing more and more Superchargers along the several highways, things will keep on improving. For everybody. The objective is to replace all the ICE vehicles with EV's. Imagine if we would have had such an extensive network of Superchargers, then we would actually not even be needing batteries with higher capacities. The technology of today (85 kWh battery pack) would have been sufficient. And Pungoteague_Dave would not have to be driving his Ford F150 for those weekly trips.

By the way, I hope that nobody takes over Tesla Motors. At least not until 2100.

Nissan has already committed to nearly 1000 such charging stations... Could this be a result of Tesla's chargers ( only 9 right now)?

I can't believe Pung bought the car thinking he wouldn't have to work a bit in these early days (and I'm talking about only a year here) before the extended infrastructure gets in place. It is ridiculous to think you would buy a car like this expecting not to accommodate the cars short comings in range consistency. And even then, Tesla is working on software updates that will improve that too. The car is evolving every day, pushing to get better. This same car you bought a few months ago will get better. The promise that tesla outlined is where they will get you with the car. They are committed to it. Just have to not have the attitude this is the end of the line for your car, that it will in the near future get you the 220 you need to get to Baltimore.

You've not only paid for a car, you've paid good money for a learning intelligent car (and a range extender through constant expansion of free sun powered supercharger network that actually puts power back into the grid).

The value of this car is far greater... A value proposition we are not used to but will come to realize over the coming years. The financial strength of a company comes in a great product always. The growth will continue regardless of critical reviews because a vast majority of owners will demonstrate its potential in reality. I feel people not in the 1% will be willing to spend more then the ever did before to purchase this car. Like Border said in his march article, only about 20k total Evs sold in 2011... Model S will sell that many by q4 this year. They have already sold more model ses than BMW 7 series... There is a redefinition of the market place going on and it will become more apparent as year end approaches.

So hold tight. You'll be able to make the trip to school soon enough.

@Pungoteague_Dave, Neither you nor I know if Broder's stunt was intentional, but I'll note two things. One, if I was driving a car telling me to "CHARGE NOW", guess what I would do? The same thing I do when the yellow light for low gas goes on. I would not keep driving.

As a reporter, Broder knows that images have more impact than words, and titles count more than the story. I don't know, but I suspect strongly that he wanted to get the car carrier picture. It is otherwise too strange that he would go knowingly down to zero. That picture is the article. It is both the title "Stalled Out...", and the image. It's everything from a media standpoint.

If he had recharged, the article would have far less impact, even if he noted the need to recharge and was critical in the body of the text.

There would have been no picture, and no "Stalled Out" title. Please don't think that a professional reporter does not know the difference. Because of this, I agree with Musk that it was a hit piece, even if I don't think he responded in the best way to it.

Some commenters on the NYT site have also noted a bit of a math problem. According to the published map, Broder averaged 81.4 MPH for over an hour (114 miles), though he claims just drove 75 MPH for one or two miles. Broder spends a lot of time covering the oil industry. There is reason to be skeptical of his intentions.

Let's see the logs.

Daniel -- please link the broder follow up blog of you can....

P_D;
your comments about capital equipment make me wonder if you've followed TM's history at all. They got almost all of it at distressed prices, even the fancy stuff (which had been first bought by bubble-brained majors.) Whether they can duplicate that I don't know, but there is no shortage of auto companies "downsizing".

As for margins, much of it consists of "captured" vertical profits not being paid to sub-contracters/suppliers because of maximizing in-house production. Many layers of mark-ups on mark-ups ...

The only person who know what he is talking about is Pungoteague_ Dave.

P-Dave - Do I detect a lack of reverence for the great Elon? Do you not know that all he does is perfect and all he touches turns to gold... I heard as he walks across the desert floor flowers sprout up in his wake and birds chirp and furry animals come out to play... Have you not been leaving batteries at his alter? Maybe that is why you have been having range issues...

Seriously the man has a vision which has not been really been seen since Thomas Edison (who really did change the world but made a wrong call on AC power - ok, nobody is perfect)... Although I can understand what Jack Welsh did I find him hard to really admire... He is as lovable as porcupine, but he did save and turn GE into an industrial and corporate powerhouse once again. Hippie dippie types love Steve Jobs, sure he was a good business guy who made products that people liked, but he was no more a genius than Andy Warhol - he understood design and applied it, that's all... and lets not forget he shipped a lot of american jobs off to Communist China... I guess his fanbase will not find that so repugnant as I do as hippie Prius driver types forget history and love commies anyway, look who they put in the white house...

Even if Elon stopped tomorrow and sold off Tesla Motors and SpaceX he will still have made history as much a John Delorean and Preston Tucker did. I love these guys more than any slimeball politician and in a world filled with scandal and disappointment it is nice to respect someone with vision and some achievements in life. The Roadster and Model S have changed the game and innovations therein will change the automotive world for decades to come whether Tesla Motors eventually fails (I am thinking that is rather unlikely), is bought out or thrives in its current form.

I have no crystal ball but would not bet against Elon.

P.D, enjoy your rants. One questions, as you appear to be close to this reporter on the Times.. You say that "everything he did was under specific direction from TM staff". Wow, how do you know that?

PD: don't forget that Tesla isn't JUST about car sales, they sell drivetrains to several other companies. While we don't have numbers on that, it's still more than a drop in the bucket. There's also the reservation fee for new cars. Not much per car, but Tesla isn't selling cars one at a time.

Marketing budget? Tesla doesn't need or have one, owners are doing that FOR them. I mean, the only commercials for Model S so far have been made by fans! Tesla hasn't needed to lift a finger to get people interested in their car.

Cars aren't smart enough to be servants. They are there to ASSIST us in traveling, and that means we have to change how we want to travel to make the best use of their abilities.

As I'm a fair distance north of the border, I'm not going to be getting a Model S for quite a while. That said, looking at how I drive my current car, I have few doubts I could get quite close to 300 miles per charge. It's all in how you approach driving.

Mel, We know the NYT reporter did most of what he did under the specific direction of TM staff because his article and his follow up comments are very specific on the many calls and personal guidance he received from staff. They dropped the car off to him personally, gave him instructions, knew his route, spoke with him throughout, and sent the tow truck when it ended badly. They had every opportunity to intervene or tell him how to avoid what happenned, but failed. Worse, they gave him exactly the wong advice on serveral occasions. They and Elon apologized to him personally after the tow and before the article was published, but have since gone into aggressive rebuttal mode. My sense is that they realized too late that this saga can destroy a lot of sales and are desperately assigning blame externally. Elon appears to be so concerned that he is acting unprofessionally and responding petulantly. Perhaps to be expected from a young CEO, but the wrong approach in any case. Call it a hit job if you want, but TM could have ensured that trip would succeed, so it was a self-inflicted hit.

Vawlkus, TM has a HUGE marketing budget. Where do you think they categorize the costs for the sales offices, demonstrator cars, public events, media interface? They may not PAY for a lot of advertising, but they do have a huge publicity and public outreach function that goes for the same result through "free" reviews and tests, and likely costs as much or more than the conventional approach.

NYT reporter probably didn't know that Model S logs what it is doing, and Tesla has now analyzed that data and found out that he didn't do what he was supposed to do. That's why "aggressive rebuttal mode".

If the guy has lied about most of his experience, which Elon gave more details on Fox today, why would you believe he didn't have an agenda when contacting Tesla for advice? Could he have equvocated, reinterpreted the advice to work in his favor? This is a possibility you seem quick to overlook because of own frustrations with range.

Read the language choices in his blog, review the map data he gave, you can see for yourself it doesn't add up. I agree, Tesla staff might not have handled the situation as best as they could have, but I'm willing to bet my entire portfolio that they were responding with earnest and honest intentions having no clue what this gentlemen was going to do. I believe they trusted what he was telling them. They wanted to get him what he needed. I believe Elon believed what he broder was telling him, and did actually appologized. Then the let down of being misled really hurt. If broder was partial and honest in how he ran out of juice, this would be a different story, elon would've taken it on the chin and moved forward. But that's not what happened and now Elon's angry and lashing out. I think this should have been an opportunity to educate the public, but didn't quite happen. However, there is still momentum in the press so he'll have more opportunists soon.

P-Dave, you have no more information than the rest of us. Once more, with feeling, let's see the logs.

Also, once more with feeling, Broder's own map shows an 81.4 MPH average speed for one hour and 20 minutes, while he writes that he only made 75 "for a mile or two". So his story is not holding together.

Musk is not being petulant, by the way. But I'll agree that his media skills when playing on defense are not optimal. I've also noticed since the 787 issue that Twitter does not help him at all. He should have somebody screen his tweets.

He obviously felt blindsided and is probably right about that. But his reaction should have been much cooler: "We are committed to reaching a full understanding of the problems Mr. Broder reported. We will carefully examine the data logs and present our findings to the Tesla community and public. We are proud of our award-winning Model S and will continue to make every effort to achieve the best driving experience for all our customers, every day of the year."

Then he should have just STFU and quietly worked on the logs, having Straubel issue a formal detailed response based on them, on Tesla's own sweet time.

Tesla is already tackling power stations for its vehicles. The solar charging stations could all by themselves make money or a decent profit for the company selling excess power not needed back to electric companies. Tesla clearly have the competitive edge in the distance/charge category, they will only improve from now forward. All the other EV only cars are refined technologies for the car company fielding them and they are still bad. If I were a venture capital guy I would get with Tesla about expanding their recharging station foot print along major highways. Like someone else said the guy running Tesla shares the same kind of vision as the guy running SpaceX. I would also advise people to buy at least one share of this companies stock in your name in case Tesla offers future DRIP investment plans.

Like someone else said the guy running Tesla shares the same kind of vision as the guy running SpaceX

That's no surprise because guy running Tesla is the guy running SpaceX.

Yeah, I noticed that after I posted. Point is this guy seems to be in it for the long haul. Who would he sell Space X to?

@ jk2014

I think you are right.

Mr. Broder had a hidden agenda to get a photo of the Tesla Model S being towed on a truck. That is what he wanted from the beginning and that is what he was aiming at. And therefore Mr. Broder should somehow be punished for doing that.

Jamesamyx --

The problems to be solved with expanding the SCs:

How to keep people from using it to charge the car on a daily basis like a local public charging station as opposed to a charge point between distant locations. Can't sustain solar power generation at the current moment if that we're the case.

How to ensure customers are able to charge when they need to, with the least amount of wait time behind other customers charging. Wait time could be extremely long if 10s of thousands of Tesla's out there soon. Need to store excess power and redistribute it to other charging stations during surges in use.

How to fairly monetize usage for non tesla vehicles. Generate new revenue streams to help the bottom line.

I retract my prior view that the reporter did not appear to have an agenda and was fully under TM staff direction. Based on Elon Musk's posting today, it is clear that NYT needs to investigate what happened here and answer the questions and respond to the facts that have been presented. Broder may well have had an agenda or at least a pre-formed conclusion. I am sorry that I defended him.

P_D --

I admire your ability to "man up" and retract. Wish we were all more like you here...

jk;
The local public near to remote inter-city rechargers is too small to worry about. And their "return on time invested" works out to less than minimum wage (vs. paying the costs of charging at home, at night, while sleeping). Anyone who buys an MS is likely to value their time rather more highly than that!

A non-issue.

Sorry but Mr Musk facts don't add up. More people who are buying electrics are finding out the range has its limited. When I drive a electric car on a trip I always worry if I'm going to make it where I'm going. In the city I don't have to worry cause im only driving 30- 90 miles..it's perfect. But not for a long trip.

Mr. Musk data doesn't add up,

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/technology/2013/02/elon-musks-data-doesnt...

Yes nick, we know you don't like EVs, Tesla or Model S. You can go back under your bridge now.

PD: that seems to be happening in a few places: Elon himself said he wishes he'd looked at past article by Broder before letting him drive. Guy apparently has written a few EV hate pieces in the past. I'm just glad the jerk is being hung on his own words.

@ Nick. Have you seen the replies to the article that you posted? Please read through them. You will find out that it is the other way around. The author´s arguments dont add up.

P. D., you are really sounding silly. It 's nice to have a discussion but you have to have some realism and at least one fact. Our education system has gone to ________. And our media is really something else, when you consider what the NYTimes has become. Sad.

To wrap it up , you state that [. We KNOW that the NY Times reporter did most of what he did under specific direction of TM staff because ]. And this is where you fall apart. You do not have any reason why you believe the NYTimes reporter. Is he a friend of yours? Do you know anyone else that had there S towed because they tried to go 60 miles when the car said it only had 30 left?

@Mel, PD made a retraction. Look at 6 post previous to yours.

Vawlkus

I like EV and know how they work. I used to have GM EV1. Do you. I see you like hide under a Bridge


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