I think that this is an extremely high target. And yes, the Tesla Model S really is a super car, but only 1 model is not enough to create the demand to manufacture half a million cars per year. And the Model X is also a great car. But to really create a demand for half a million cars per year Tesla Motors must have 10 different Electric Vehicles on offer to all of the car markets in this world. That would mean that Tesla Motors will have to introduce 1 new Electric Vehicle per year as from 2013. Then it just might be possible to reach this target of manufacturing half a million cars per year as from the year 2020. But each of these 10 different Electric Vehicles must be succesfull. Will that happen? Is Tesla Motors that good? Both Model S and Model X are super cars, but will the next 8 models be also that good? I personally hope that they are, let me be clear about that. And ultimately time will tell. But I sure would like to know other people's opinion on this topic.
I've had my car for about a month. Based on the rabid enthusiasm I've seen everyone, and I mean everyone, that I have shown the car to, That number seems quite realistic worldwide.
After Gen III goes into production this is possible, but a lofty goal.
By then they will be producing:
Model S (version 2? Convertable?)
Model X
Gen III Sedan
Gen III Roadster
It will be GenIII that is most of the volume. There are many of us that beleive in Tesla but can not justify a Model S. If GenIII was announced tomorrow my reservation would be in before the sun set.
The plant is big enough for that volume. I beleive that when Toyota ran the plant they produced >400,000 a year.
@ghillair
The plant is indeed big enough to be manufacturing a half a million cars per year. That will certainly not be the problem for sure.
I have heard Elon wants to be BMW size within a decade. That would be 1 million+ cars per year by 2022.
I imagine they will be around Porsche size when Gen III gets into production 150-200k cars per year in 2016 (with Gen III at 100k and Model S and X varients running around 50k each per year).
When they get to the 500,000 cars per year mark they will have to think of building another factory...I think eastern europe would be a good location here. European demand for EV's will be higher than USA due to higher gas prices, increasing taxes on ICE vehicles, and a more enviro friendly population. Eastern europe has lower wages so could keep costs down for Tesla..it would also allow for a central point for western european and asian deliveries.
Most of the major car companies have an enourmous range of models that they offer to their customers. One can buy a car in any size one can think of. There are many segments in the car industry (A to Z). The 3 smallest car segments are A, B and C.
The volume of small cars is the mostly the highest. Simply because these small cars are the cheapest to buy and to keep. That's why these small cars are sold in higher numbers every year.
Tesla Motors will also have to offer such a small car to be able to reach such high volumes per year.
GenIII - a $40K car that is as cheap to own and run as a $15-20K car.
I think that first of all the Supercharger network will have to be completed in USA, Europe and Asia, before Tesla Motors will become a brand that sells really big numbers of cars annually.
Where does everybody "hear" all this stuff?
6K per week is what Nummi produced per wiki 312K a year
@RNB
I am sorry, but I do not understand what you mean by:
"6K per week is what Nummi produced per wiki 312K a year".
Could you explain that please?
wiki=wikipedia, a popular internet resource to learn things
6k is shorthand for SIX thousand, you can figure what 312K means now
@RNB
I know wikipedia, and I know that 6k is shorthand for six thousand, and that 312k is shorthand for 312 thousand. But what are you talking about? What is Nummi? And what did Nummi produce? Are you talking about cars?
The automobile manufacturing plant in Fremont, California, which Tesla Motors has bought in 2010 is called the Tesla Factory. And I think we should not talk about it as the NUMMI, because it has a new owner and they have decided to call it the Tesla Factory.
And 6,000 cars per week was the average since 1984. That does not mean that 6,000 cars is the absolute maximum number of cars that can be produced in the Tesla Factory. There is a big difference in manufacturing a car with a ICE and an electric car (which has far less components). If you would compare both cars technically (power train, transmission etc.), then you will understand what I mean. My point is that more than 6,000 cars per week can be manufactured at the Tesla Factory. Elon Musk has set a target, he must have thought about it very thouroughly. Time will tell if he is right or not.
The Tesla GEN III EV is going to be technically good.
In my opinion the new Mercedes A is a real good looking car. Therefore, it would be real nice if the Tesla GEN III EV would look a bit like this car. A good looking car is good for high sales volumes. And that is important to reach volumes of half a million EV a year.
Elon has said the GenIII will look a lot like the MS, but smaller.
The Tesla Model S sure has got the looks as well, and a smaller version will do just fine.
And after GEN III? GEN IV? Will GEN IV be even smaller than GEN III?
If GEN IV will be a smaller EV than the GEN III, then it would be competing with the Volkswagen UP EV and the Chevrolet Spark EV. Both are to be revealed in 2013.
In order for a mass market GenIII to be viable, the battery energy density has to double and the cost/Kw-hr has to come down by half. In other words, we need a disruptive battery tech advance. I read about all kinds of possibilities, but now it is all pie in the sky. A higher density battery will reduce the weight of the battery, car and even energy requirements. Make the car affordable.
In the mean time, Li battery tech improves at 7%/year in terms of capacity/density. That should enable Tesla to address larger hi end markets, beyond early adapters. Meanwhile, costs can come down to $60k ASP for a 85P equivalent. Higher end cars could have 50% more KW-hr in 5-6 years. Advances in structural design, alloys could reduce the weight and extend nominal range to 500 miles.
Tesla will need hundreds of $millions if they want to built GenIII mass production capacity. So they better start selling more Model S+X, unless we get diluted again.
Competition will creep in sooner or later. Just Apple!
@ Bubba2000
Correct, yet it's only pie in the sky. And there will be more Model S+X sold, I think. Because more and more Model S are coming to the streets. And that is the best advertisement Tesla can have.
I don't think that the number of brands or models necessarily limit or support the number of sales. I think that price, quality, practicality, public awareness, and durability, for example, are much more important factors. I also don't see any problem with Tesla selling high luxury models while it also sells a model everyone can afford. People are smart enough to see the difference between two models, the same way jet engine sales for General Electric are not really affected because of the line of light bulbs. If a model (or brand) is a bad deal, people will (or should) vote with the feet and the dollars and it won't last. The thing is that if a lot of the technology of the model S finds it's way into Gen3 BlueStar, the model S will have to be refined further and get new improvements to remain a luxury car. That is how luxury cars used to work, back before people would buy them mostly just for the name in my opinion because an Audi is not much better than a Chevrolet and probably worse than a Honda in my opinion.
Sure! "If they can be sold" or "the demand exists in the market" The sky is the limit as to how many cars Tesla can and will produce.
In the nearer term, I think TM is going to blow Elon's 12/12/12 sales predictions for Model S out of the water. The demographics it is demonstrably appealing to are far wider than the standard 'premium plus' segment. One buyer, for example, sprang for more than the total of the 5 cars he had previously owned, lifetime. That is not a factor that any marketing model can cope with. Sales in the US this year will be surging again by this spring and summer. And the "owner-sales force" will hit like a tsunami.
In Europe and Asia, it's going to be even more powerful.
IMO
I have a 40kwh MS (Model S) due in a couple of months to come to me in Hamilton, Ohio, about half way between Dayton and Cincinnati. We have a Columbus, Oh, Tesla Service Center opening this month (March, 2013) which is 120 miles north of Hamilton and about 145 north of Cincinnati.
The MS 40kwh battery is enough to get me to Columbus where I have people there where I can charge up and also go to the Service Center there when needed. The closest public charging J-1772 outlet is in Monroe, OH, about 17 miles east of Hamilton, in the parking lot entrance of an outlet mall.
I'd be interested to know if there are any other Tesla reservation holders in the Dayton and Cincinnati areas.
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