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factory output

Hi

Does anyone know the factory output of cars (model s) pr. day...??
I have not followed the latest financial reports. Is tesla making money on the model S..?

Henrik

A verbal report from a worker said over 90/day. That would be >600/wk! Data is hard to acquire and purify, though. That would imply profit on a gross margin basis, but I doubt TMC will be profitable overall this quarter. Next quarter, probably.

BTW, you didn't need to specify "(model s)" so carefully. It's the only car they make right now; not sure what the status of the Daimler and Toyota drive trains is.

I remember seeing a forum posting recently that said almost 400/week. Now I believe they were targeting 20,000 units per year, so 400/week would be max. capacity. Unless, of course, they decided to increase capacity. Which they could do, I think, by adding another shift. It would take a while to hire and train new workers, of course...

Elon tweeted that they hit cash profitability a few days ago. This is a major milestone. GAAP profitability won't happen for a long time due to depreciation, etc., but cash profitability is what matters in this company for now.

Henrik,

Your last name wouldn't start with an F, would it?

shop;
20K is the minimum target. No ceiling, though Elon is pushing for 30K ASAP. And the factory is on Emergency Thrust right now, even working through Christmas (yes, even Christmas Day, I think.) 400, btw, is rated capacity of one line, one shift. One line, 3 shifts would be max 1200/wk. That is over 60K/yr.

What they achieved was cash flow break-even, which is a different measure entirely than profit. It means they're taking in more than they spend. GAAP profitability is now expected in Q1; the annual rate required is just 8K+/yr.

I think they are busting their ass to try and get as many cars out the door as possible to beat their revised estimate of 3200 cars in 2012.

@Brian H: Well, using your numbers (which were the same as mine, I think), 400 cars/wk rated capacity per line per shift does equal 20,000 cars/yr. To get to 30K cars or more per year would require either more capital expenditure for a bigger line (there goes the cash profitability), or a second shift meaning new hires and training. Either way, it isn't going to be done overnight. So I think we are stuck at 400 cars/wk for at least a few months :-)

Hopefully Elon won't be trying to push the line and workers beyond rated capacity as that is just inviting quality problems. I am quite sure they are still trying to work through quality issues as it is since the production line is so new.

But hey, maybe it's all sunshine and roses in there, who knows...

Any recent customers who got a factory tour care to comment?

While talking to a phone rep at Tesla today, I asked what the production rate was up to. He replied that they didn't give him those kinds of numbers but that it should be a lot because they were still ramping up production but they were running two shifts.

So, they're running two shifts.

So, they're running two shifts. (phb)

Wow, that's news! Thanks for sharing! :-)

Since I received my "IT'S TIME TO SCHEDULE DELIVERY" indicating the last two weeks in December, and I did not expect delivery until February, they must have increased production of my particular configuration.

WB

non-performance
pano roof
80Kwh
19" wheels
Pearl white
black leather
obeche matte
twin chargers
tech package
sound studio
active air
parcel shelf
paint armor
supercharger

@ Brian H
"A verbal report from a worker said over 90/day."

Could you please provide more context for that? It actually sounds too good to be true and definitely it should be taken with a cup of salt.

That's over 2 shifts (see above), neither at full efficiency yet.

Even so, it seems too fast. Of course, we are discussing quite sensible information here, but should production be anywhere near 600 cars / day, about 100 new reservations / day, cash flow positive, that should simply kill all bears under an avalanche of buy orders for TSLA.

Nicu.Mihalache, there's a typo in your post, and I'm genuinely unsure what you intended to say: near 100 cars/day? Or near 600 cars/week?

Assuming...

- about 13,000 reservations
- about 400 week build building to 600 week by summer
- 100 week new reservations building to 300 week by summer
- 15% cancellation / delay
- 5% new market sales builds

...we would see all deliveries complete by end of May and the factory go to a two shift mix of S and X builds before year end.

Having said that I think the big variable above is that once the cars are truly available everywhere and we take our friends / family for a test drive... they will become newly converted...

Automotive news reports 1063 for november and 2170 ytd. it is a newsletter I receive.
http://www.autonews.com/

Their December delivery email said "Our factory is working day and night" which certainly implies two shifts.

dstiavnicky - I don't quarrel with your other assumptions, but your assumption of 100 new reservations per week building to 300 by summer is hard to follow. The reservation thread in this forum reflects that, since October 2012, the reservation rate has been over 75 per pay, or more like 525 per week.

At the current rate that reservations are coming in, the factory isn't going to be catching up any time soon. And this is with European orders just starting to kick up with their Get Amped tour and before anyone has given much of a thought to marketing in Asia.

The real question for Tesla is whether to increase production to meet the demand that may be on the horizon. While they have room to boost production, I think keeping demand ahead of supply might be the best way to go, adding to the allure and je ne sais quois mystique of the company. But it's looking to me like they can crank up production to 30,000/year while keeping a very healthy reservation list. And then, with the Model X, instead of a projected 15,000/year, I could see a similar outcome, where they actually make 20-25,000 per year while maintaining healthy demand.

dstiavnicky | DECEMBER 11, 2012

Assuming...

- about 13,000 reservations
- about 400 week build building to 600 week by summer
- 100 week new reservations building to 300 week by summer
- 15% cancellation / delay
- 5% new market sales builds

It's anyone's guess. I'd believe someone who works in the factory. We don't know what their capacity is, if they are working 5,6 or 7 days, how many shifts there are and much more. Their manufacturing boss has likely run plants that ran in excess of 1000 cars/day with more complex assemblies but they're so much more vertically integrated than other manufacturers it adds normally outsourced subassemblies back in. It's been 6 mos since production started so they've likely refined and learned quite a bit to enable higher velocity. I wish I could see the place.

If there reservation list is that strong (i.e. - 500+/week) then they are crazy to expand beyond North America for the time being. They need the service and supercharging stations here and become an undisputedly cash-flow-positive car company.

My apologies to everyone overseas if I offend, but business is business.

P.S. - I was assuming a much smaller reservations list moving forward simply because not everyone is an early adopter of technology. (same reason Apple can sell millions of iPhones in the first weekend...)

dstiavnicky, This whole early adopter thing is gone IMHO. People are not only buying this car because they want to be the first to own a BEV. They are also buy the car because it's Motor Trends's COTY. They are also buying it because it out preforms almost everything in it's price range according to independent reviews. Most people realize they do not drive 200 miles every day and most people buying this car have an ICE that will need to still be driven or the engine will seize up so when they do have to drive >300 miles they will take that.

@ Volker.Berlin

I was considering Brian's number of 600 cars / week production (not / day - it was indeed a typo)
in addition to 80-100 new reservations / day we have seen lately

Any new feedback ?

Well.. they are at VIN32xx. They had something like 1200 made by the beginning of Dec? I think. The math becomes easy....

2000/4=500 car a week. Probably actually closer to 600 since they weren't at 400 on week one of Dec.

I got my VIN 2 days ago, #3270.

And Geekgirls over on the Delivery thread reported seeing 342x VINs in final assembly today (12/30) so they are indeed cranked up, even with the holidays.

It's not enough because they have 100 reservation per day!

I just got prompted to provide delivery info this morning after getting my "time to build" email earlier this month. When I finalized my configuration, a Feb/March delivery estimate was shown. But now after setting delivery options, I'm being shown a window of Jan 23rd to Feb 6th. This is way faster than I expected, being reservation #11380. If I really do have my S in a month, that'll put my reservation-to-delivery delay at barely over 5 months. I have to assume they're really ramping up production. Prolly also has to do with my options (my understanding is that 85kw packs with air suspension are getting priority).

600 a week should be good enough for now. They've got to keep quality top priority.


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