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Let's play the "Guess Tesla's Financials" game

I've been having a bit of a debate on my Youtube channel with a Tesla hater who thinks TM is heading for bankruptcy real soon. I don't think so. So it got me thinking what might TM's financials look like going forward. Elon suggested they wouldn't be profitable until 2nd half of 13, so assuming that, assuming they are at full production in Q1, assuming an average selling price, and taking Q3 actuals as a starting point I came up with the following. Most numbers are complete wild guesses.

                             Q3         Q4         Q1        Q2
Mode S Sold (#)             253       2500        5000      5000
Revenue ($m)                 50        225         400       400
Gross Margin (%)            (17)        10          15        20
Gross Margin ($)             (8.5)      22.5        60        80
R&D                          62         40          40        40
SG&A                         38         45          50        55
Operating Profit (Loss)    (108)       (62.5)      (30)      (15)
Cash                        330        267.5       237.5     222.5

Anyone else want to take a stab?

(BTW - Tesla Stock currently up 2% on the news from TM exec Jerome Guillen that the plant is running at full capacity and on schedule to meet full production numbers for 2013)

"These are GAAP figures. A 15m loss in Q1 (GAAP) equates to about break even non GAAP "

Elon said that they would see a SLIGHT NON-GAAP profit in Q1. The last two shareholder reports have shown a c.$15m difference between GAAP and non-GAAP profit. The numbers in my table are the GAAP numbers.

Hope this makes sense.

@nickjhowe

Tesla guidance for Q1 is 4,500 sales of Model S as stated in the shareholder letter, so your value there for Q1 is off. Mr. Musk also stated on the conference call about the same level for Q2 with higher volumes anticipated for Q3/Q4 in anticipation of 20,000 plus total vehicles sold in 2013.

The shareholder letter also indicated they foresee lower R&D expenses for Q1 as compared to Q4.

@cschock - My new estimate (a few posts above yours, on page 1 does say 4500 for Q1. I haven't updated my original estimate in the first post of the thread. Sorry for the confusion.

The volumes need some adjustment to total "at least" 20K in 2013. And Elon is anticipating 25% margin by y/e; suggests a higher average for Q4.

Updated with Q1 actuals (GAAP). Not tracking too badly against my SWAG...

Original guesstimate:
                             Q3         Q4         Q1        Q2
Mode S Sold (#)             253       2500        5000      5000
Revenue ($m)                 50        225         400       400
Gross Margin (%)            (17)        10          15        20
Gross Margin ($)             (8.5)      22.5        60        80
R&D                          62         40          40        40
SG&A                         38         45          50        55
Operating Profit (Loss)    (108)       (62.5)      (30)      (15)
Cash                        330        267.5       237.5     222.5

Actuals through Q1:
                             Q3         Q4         Q1        Q2
Mode S Sold (#)             253       2500        4900      4500
Revenue ($m)                 50        225         562       450
Gross Margin (%)            (17)        10          17        20
Gross Margin ($)             (8.5)      22.5       113        90
R&D                          62         40          55        55
SG&A                         38         45          47        50
Operating Profit (Loss)    (108)       (62.5)       11       (15)
Cash                        330        221         231       220

Q2 volumes predicted to be lower than Q1because cars will be shipped (literally) to Europe but not jet delivered

But I see you seriously underestimated both Revenue and Gross Margin.

Yeah. I (deliberately) didn't take into account revenue from other sources than Model S sales, as I had no way to estimate it. GM % was pretty close.


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