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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

P2473 reported in Norway today

Jan 12 moving averages for reservations:

4 week moving average: 812 reservations per week, +78 from last week
12 week moving average: 576 reservations per week, +50 from last week
4-12 week moving average: +236

Reservations are continuing to accelerate. Even after the price increase (shows you what I know).

The 19,090 was just a typo, and the 18,500 isn't really much better. Somebody who's neighbor reserved and got something "around" 18,500. The last real reservation number we have is 18,175 from the 10th.

As of January 12, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

24,944*1,741/1,388 = 31,288
:| ?
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (24,944 - 13,260)*549/196 = 45,987
:| ?
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (24,944 - 18,337)*426/73 = 56,893
.
:| ?

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :| ?
.
Since June '12: 59.6 :| ?
.
Since Oct. '12: 90.5 :| ?

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,500 (January 12, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,473 (January 14, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 25,011 – January 14, 2013

Net Total: 20,985 – January 14, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

As of January 14, 2013, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Dec. 2013, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

25,011*1,741/1,390 = 31,326
:) ↑
.
Extrapolation from July 1, 2012 base:
13,260 + (25,011 - 13,260)*549/198 = 45,824
:( ↓
.
Extrapolation from October 31, 2012 base:
18,337 + (25,011 - 18,337)*426/75 = 56,245
.
:( ↓

_________

Daily Reservation rates implied in the three Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 18.0 :| →
.
Since June '12: 59.3 :( ↓
.
Since Oct. '12: 89.0 :( ↓

Taking the corrected number and guesstimated deliveries into account, there were over 16K unfilled reservations at year end.

bump

Netherlands, confirmed Jan 16th: P 2,492
(reservation of friend of mine)

EU P2526 reported in Norway today.

EU P2532 reported in Norway today.

Canada update: reservation numbers are over 700 according to Toronto Tesla. Can anyone confirm their number?

Up to ~40/day from 10? Sounds hot ...

And that would suggest >5/day for Canada.

We're still irked by the NAFTA shenanigans -.-

Only dummies were surprised. Would you like a nice, one-time one-product one-company exemption? That way lies complete loss of rule by law.

Bumping to top.

Thread creation rate seems to be pushing this pretty far down the list! Bump

Leofingal | JANUARY 19, 2013
"Thread creation rate seems to be pushing this pretty far down the list"

There seems to be an increasing tendency to start a new thread at the drop of a hat, instead of checking to see if there is already a thread on any given subject (or even two or three)!

Please listees don't start a new thread when there is an existing one already! When you do that the accumulated wisdom that was on the pre existing thread is lost to new posters.

Trying to decide if I should start a new thread on this subject??? :)

P#9317 - Blue 85 w/air+tech+stereo

6/4/12 - Reservation made
12/31/12 - Configure
1/15/13 - Begin Delivery Process (red button): 1/31-2/14 window given

I'm kind of worried we haven't seen anyone post a new US reservation number here for quite a while. Maybe the new folks haven't figured out that this forum REALLY needs newcomers to post their reservation number. It's the only way we can tell how popular the Model S is post the January price increase. Come on new reservation holders, please post your res # and the date you got it...

Shop: I agree. Zzzzzz. Hopefully into next week we get some reliable new reservation data points

michiganmodels, when not driving his new MS, is on the watch everywhere.

But if a store is near you, you could hang out and watch for anyone filling out paperwork, then buttonhole them as they exit with a goofy grin, and ask what res# they got.

Hi,
Not sure if you have a Dec 31st # to help your calcs, but in case it helps, here is my info: I placed my order after 1pm PST on Dec 28th and got # 17033

The US count was held open for 4 days, and the highest Dec 31 # was 17,849. So about 800 piled on in the last 3½ days!

...and I think somewhere I did some napkin math where it looked like 500 on the 31st alone. Happy New Year!

I reserved on 1/11 sequence number 18197
The sales guy told me 6-9 months for delivery

Thanks Dean. So unofficially that's 348 between 12/31 and 1/11. About 30/day average, but probably <30 at the start and >30 recently. Better than I expected.

BTW Dean - you are going to LOVE the car. Worth every $.

Dean - and the way things are going, I'd bet more like 4-6 months before delivery for you, depending on your options.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 18,359 (January 17, 2013)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 624 (December 31, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 2,532 (January 17, 2013)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 75 (December 21, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 48 (December 12, 2012)

Gross Total: 24,929 – January 17, 2013

Net Total: 20,903 – January 17, 2013*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

So from 18,197 on 1/11 to 18,359 on 1/17, or 163 in 6 days, 27+/day.

Or from 17,849 on 12/31 to 18,359 on 1/17, or 510 in 17 day, 30/day.

I'd be pretty happy if I were Tesla. Should only go up from here...


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