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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

Would that mean that there will be no more updates from mms?

sjarus:
Reservation: 2012-10-15
Delivery: 2013-02-22

That seems like a much faster turnaround than I would have expected.

Is this faster than average?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11844916/1/tesla-triumphs-but-questions-r...

thestreet.com did a rough survey on wait times. Seems that cars ordered now could get delivered in 30 days. If pending reservations are 12,000+ how is that possible, unless there has been a huge number of cancelations? It is unlikely the company delivered the bulk of those 12,000 reservations.

The "street" report looks like a play for the shorts. How can asking a couple of folks in one store mean anything? I have not seen anyone else confirming a 30 day delivery window. I'll wait for today's report...

S/B "tomorrow's" earnings report. +$1.45ish today so far, high volume.

@L8MDL
You are not accounting for the large number of reservation holders who are waiting for configurations not yet in productions (Multi-coat RED, Standard Suspension, 40 kWh Battery, etc.)

I don't believe ANY configuration has a 30 day delivery as stated in the Street's article. Since there is no dealer close to me I can only go by what I read - and NOWHERE else has this short a delivery time been stated or confirmed, that's not to say it's impossible.

Has anyone on this board been given, or received, a 30 day delivery from their order date?

I haven't seen anyone talking about a 30 day window other than that.

Here's my timeline (Res # 16,6xx):
2012-12-23 Placed reservation
2013-01-23 Invited to configure
2013-02-06 Finalized
2013-02-07 Pre-delivery MVPA completed (estimated delivery of Feb/Mar)
2013-02-11 Received a delivery window of 3/13 - 3/27

My config is one that has had the shortest build times (85kWh standard, air suspension, tech pkg, etc), and even if you only count the time from finalize to build, I'm looking at a month and a half.

I suppose it's possible that in a perfect storm of configuration and timing someone might get < 30days from reservation to delivery, but that seems extremely unlikely to me.

I spoke to a Florida store that stated that the wait time is currently 1-1.5 months based on the quickest configuration due to increase ramp in production... My guess is that production has increased, but some of the other configuration types will have substantially greater lead times than 1-1.5 months. Tesla is likely trying to pump out the higher end/more profitable models.

I don't believe that it is possible that the vast majority of reservation holders would have cancelled or deferred.

Benz;
No, but until someone gets a few new buyers to log in, he has no DATA. And no, guesstimates are not as good.

Dangnation - your time seems more likely that what the Street said. They must be short the stock...

TSLA +$2.25 (6.08%) today on double normal volume. Classic short squeeze before earnings. Tomorrow should be fun! The 20K/year number will be front & center.

Well, some of this depends on wording too. When does an "order" take place? If not at the time of reservation but when the agreement is executed then, depending on the configuration and interpretation of delivery based on the window, 30 days isn't far off. For me the "order" took place on 2/6 and my window is 3/8-3/22.

Even having said that, however, I will add that this was far faster than the original expectation I had for delivery when I made my reservation on 1/12. Things are definitely moving more quickly than before. If I were to speculate optimistically I would say what's going on is what they are telling me when I ask them. Namely that if you select the configuration for which the factory is optimized you get into the line ahead of people with configurations they need to change to produce.

Might this upset people with the different configurations if it get out as the street article suggests? Yes, but only if their expectations aren't being met. If tesla tells a reservation holder that the window is late July and they get their car in late July I argue they won't be upset.

IOW, maybe the additional production volume isn't accelerating everyone's expected delivery date and as long as they can fulfill an order for the optimal configuration in 30 days (even from reservation date) and _not_ delay any date for an existing reservation holder, why wouldn't they?

If they can build a substantial number of duplicate configurations, then efficiency goes up, numbers produced goes up. I feel this is what's happening right now... The wild wait time rumors are a consequence.

I think it's most likely a combination of increased production rate, and dwindling finalized orders with air/85/60. They have to keep the factory full until they can start building the standard suspension and 40kWh cars, which could be a substantial percentage of reservations. The 40's and the reds may not be a huge percentage, but standard suspension could be fairly large.

My guess (totally hand waving guess) is 500 cars per week output, 20% cancellation/deferment on 20k US reservations and 5k delivered to date. Really fired up for the conference call.

Guys;
All way OT!! This thread is for counting new reservations. Take it elsewhere. Copy the discussion posts over to a new production wait thread or SLT.

Where are the new reservations?

Not in the forums, yet. Stop around to a store and snoop out some recent reservation numbers and dates. Names not required. Post here, and some arithmetic can happen.

Corr: even one recent number and date.

We have one recent datapoint from TMC: 19,325 Feb.17th.

That makes 39 per day since the last datapoint Feb.8th. Reservations are definately picking up again after the January drop.

EU reservations have been 37 per day in February but we do need a new data point there as the last one was Feb.5th.

39+37=76, or ~28,000 per year. Even if EU reservations are only at 21 per day, we have 20,000 per year with a 10% cancellation rate, not counting the rest of the world at all.

Actually, US reservations are 50/day between Feb 8th and Feb 17th. (I made a mistake in my US reservation rate calc on TMC and I fixed it)

Bottom line is that reservation rates are taking off again (post New Years price increase hangover).
At this rate, I expected Tesla to raise guidance on delivering MORE than 20k this year. It may not happen today, but I believe guidance will be raised at some point this year.

Here's my timeline (# 19,1xx):
2012-02-12 Placed reservation
2013-02-12 Invited to configure
2013-02-19 Finalized
2013-02-19 Pre-delivery MVPA completed (estimated delivery of Mar/Apr)

Was shocked I was asked to finalize it immediately after I placed the reservation. Ended up going with the 60kWh battery and air suspension so I believe that is one of the quickest configuration.

tyler;
not this thread. This not the configuration tally, or tracker of delivery times. Just original reservations.

To all concerned, mm takes the #s in the shareholders' call as well as postings, so we should get some action tonight!

The tesla shareholder letter for Q4 results had over 15,000 net reservations by the end of the 2012 year. So the 19348 Net reservation total MichiganModelS reported on December 30 2012 would have to subtract the 2400 delivered vehicles for Q4:
19348-2400= 16948 Net reservations

This would imply that there were around 2000 cancellations since the last earnings report until the end of the year, correct? I'm not sure if I did the math correctly, so please correct me if I am wrong.

This forum was helpful in seeing the gross orders for the quarter at well over 6000 (I computed about 6800, Tesla's press release said over 6000), but the forum missed the large number of cancellations. The people who cancel probably don't post. I believe the large number of cancellations is a main cause of stock weakness.

I think the stock weakness is due to 2400 cars delivered- less than guidance.... however, this is off topic... so, any new res holders out there to post?

Specs : p85 / Air Susp / Black / Black interior / Rear facing seats / Pano

2012-11-30 Placed reservation
2013-01-16 Invited to configure
2013-02-11 Finalized
2013-02-12 Pre-delivery MVPA completed (estimated delivery of Mar/Apr)
2013-02-20 Delivery Scheduling email ( I chose pickup from factory. estimated delivery Mar 9-Mar 23)

I was told I will get the VIN# in a week and the car will go into production 10 days from now. Looks like it takes only 8 days to build it. Looking forward bringing the car home..

that means the delivery could be within 30 days of finalizing..

mtom;
wrong thread. New reservations only.

bump


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