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Model X production numbers?

Hi guys,
Just heard about a JP Morgan Tesla forecast that only puts Model X production numbers at 2,500 for 2014.
I had always assumed that Model X would mean a second production line for Tesla and they would produce just as many of X as S...i.e. 20,000 S + 20,000 X in 2014.
I presume they must have got these estimates from Tesla or are they just guessing?
They also only estimate just 15,000 Model X produced in 2016!

Also is anyone as concerned as I am that there is no word of Model X alphas or betas doing any testing/certification that will be necessary for a true early 2014 release?

Bit worried my future production estimates for Tesla and thus its ability to generate revenue were way off.

The JP Morgan numbers are conservative and must be projecting a slow ramp up in the 2nd half of 2014. Personally, I feel the learning curve and ramp up will go much faster the second time around.

My (optimistic) projections are for probably 40,000 Model S and 20,000 Model X for 2014. I realize that the 20,000 annual rate for Model X might take a little longer and may not take place till 2015.

Does JP Morgan have any insider information when performing this analysis or is it purely guesswork?...as far as I know Tesla hasn't made any official announcment regarding Model X production numbers.
I thought I had heard they would be starting a new production line for X and they would be producing the X in similar numbers to the S...I would be pretty worried if those are the real Tesla production estimates for Model X.

Well, recent reports by Elon says production starts in the 2nd half of 2014. 2nd half of 2012 yielded 2,500-3,000 Model Ss, so I would imagine that's a good conservative number. I am 2448, so I guess around December 28th!

Nah, efficiencies will kick in; Dec. 25th, latest!

I'm okay with the X delay until mid 2014...they need some breathing time to get Model S rolling off the production line nicely and to bank some profits before embarking on getting Model X production going. Still I hope for at least 5,000-7,500 Model X's on the road by the end of 2014.

teddyg;
That sounds about right, if somewhat conservative.

Regarding the production numbers, my prediction would be:

Model S:
2014 - 40,000
2015 - 50,000
2016 - 60,000

Model X:
2014 - 10,000
2015 - 20,000
2016 - 30,000

That should keep the people from Tesla Motors at the Fremont Tesla factory busy!!!

If the Model X should really drive "better than any other car on the market" (Elon Musk) with dual electric motors, endless tourque, low CoG) - it definitely has the potential to be a best seller. And by the time it comes out, people, press and industry will already know Tesla and they have showrooms and distribution, service centers etc. already in place - worldwide...

My guess is:

Model S:
2014 - 40,000
2015 - 60,000
2016 - 70,000

Model X:
2014 - 10,000
2015 - 35,000
2016 - 90,000

And then comes the Blue Star...

@ LarsT

My prediction on the production numbers are on the safe side. That means that I expect to see those production numbers to be AT LEAST that high. But if we start getting in an optimistic mood, then you may be closer to the true production numbers than I am. For the sake of Tesla Motors I sure hope that you are right on this.


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