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Ratio of 40, 60, & 85kWh

Any guesses at to the percent of each battery option (40, 60 85kWh). There might be many more 40s reserved than are indicated in the forms (since the 40 is not really tracked at this point). It will be great to start seeing the 40s go into production; at that point we can start to see a rough estimate to the ratio of battery types.

What does everybody think?

My guess is 60% 85, 30% 60, 10% 40. Based on no knowledge whatsoever.

Not sure how many 40kWh people are gonna order, since you get about the same range as Leaf for a much higher price.
Yes, Tesla is way more car for the money, but range kills it.
I think 60kW will be popular midrange, and they'll probably kill 40kwh version altogether a bit later.

@sergiyz

I have been driving a LEAF for 18 months and I can say the range difference between it and the 40 kWh Model S will be huge (~+66%). Once it hits EPA, it will be the longest range EV that doesn't have a Tesla badge.

That said, with no supercharger access (LEAF has CHAdeMO) it is not a good value. 60 kWh with supercharger access (+ CHAdeMO adapter) is an excellent value even for those stretching their budget.

On topic, my guess is that the mix will be 10% P85, 35% 85 kWh, 40% 60 kWh, and 15% 40 kWh. This is based on guessing at the deliveries vs P numbers so far and the fact that EU won't get the 40 kWh...so just like Pacey, based on nothing really.

@sergiyz - ~160mi nominal range compared to ~100mi nominal range is quite a lot. For example, my wife (who is now driving my LEAF) is keeping her old Civic for a day or two a week when the range of the LEAF is insufficient, but adding another 50mi or so would be plenty.

Aside from that, you get a *lot* more car -- if you don't mind it being an in-town vehicle, the 40kWh Model S is a steal. For example, if you have an 85kWh Model S as well, it is unlikely you will both need to go on out-of-town trips at the same time, so it would be perfect.

@kalikgod - I'm not sure CHAdeMO makes much difference -- if you aren't in CA, Houston, or Chicago you likely haven't ever seen one. I got the SL trim on my LEAF to have it, but I don't know if it will ever be available around here.

If someone would buy my damn Volvo I could afford a 60!

GDH - I am sure somebody will buy it for some price.

@jat
Judging from how nominal compares to real life, stated 160 will be 80.
I've done close to 3,000 miles in my Sig Performance, and based on real life numbers the real range is about 200 miles vs 300 miles originally stated and 246 mi per EPA tests.
If you consider that 40kWh battery has less than half the capacity, I wouldn't hope to see 160 miles on it other than driving 25mph with no AC or music on...

If 300 becomes 200, then 160 becomes 105, and by that metric you're really getting at most 70 miles in a leaf. I dislike when people compare hard driving mileage in the Tesla to ideal mileage in the Leaf. You should generally be able to do a 100 mile trip without worrying too much about how you drive in a 40kWh S, but that's true for only about a 60 mile trip in the Leaf.

I don't know much about Leaf other than they need to charge a lot ;)
Still, the 2013 Leaf model is priced around $36,000 and the cheapest Model S, bare bones with no options and 40kWh battery will cost you $52,400 *after* fed tax credit or close to $60,000 before.
Add some options (air suspension, tech package), and you're looking at $65,000 plus.
I'm not advocating for Leaf, I'd never buy one, but 40kWh battery on Model S is not very practical for the car like this.
If it was between that or Leaf, I'd buy a diesel Audi ;)

@sergiyz - I charged my LEAF exactly the same as I charge my Model S - once per day when I get home from work.

I have been getting pretty close to the rated miles on mine (1 week of driving), other than when it was really cold and the heater was eating a lot of battery. I would expect real-world driving to yield 100mi range on the 40kWh Model S, similar to getting 75mi real-world range in the LEAF. 33% more range is not insignificant. Also, you can still get 20kW chargers for the 40kWh Model S and charge much quicker.

Other than your average speed of driving, you will be charging the model S to "range driving", not "Maximum" most of the time, so the 160 miles will probably be more like 128 (hmm, the P85's 300 is only normally charged to 240), so 80%? then if you drive less than 55 mph, you might get the whole thing. If you do stop and go's probably less, so I wonder if you would realistically get 100 normally on the 40kwh version. Still more than a Leaf.

I get 241 rated miles on a standard charge, compared to 265 rated miles on a max range charge, so that looks like 91% of the maximum usable capacity for the standard charge.

The batteries in the 60kWh battery are slightly more efficient than the 85kWh and those are the same as in the 40kWh, so I wouldn't be surprised if the rated miles were around 144 and a standard charge was 130 - that's an extra 76% over the 76 EPA rated mileage of the LEAF.

according to thread http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/which-battery-are-you-getting people were thinking of ordering:

85Kw 55%
60Kw 31%
40Kw 14%

Well by looking at people getting their cars the 85 is much much smaller than these form would suggest. Reservation holders in the 10,000 are getting vin numbers which implies that of the 13k or so reservations there are about 4k or at most 5k 85's. remembering the first 1200 or so are sig and special members.

So out of the regular orders perhaps 2k to 3k are 85's giving us about 20%.

Of the early orders I think the 60 will do well since there is a fear on how far the 40 will go since Tesla has not yet published data from the EPA yet. I think over time it will settle into 40% for the 40 and the rest split with the other two sizes with heavy weight to the 60.

But your guess is as good as mine. In about a year we will all know and in a few years with the fast pace of battery tech all the sizes will go up.

@Murray: Can't assume that there aren't a large number of 85s that were skipped over in the delivery sequencing. I see where some 10,000+ have gotten VINs but I know that 6918 (me) is still waiting.

Also, as I state time and time and time again on these threads, smaller batteries aren't the only reason for cars to be delayed. While there may not be many 85kWh standard suspension cars (although probably some) there are probably quite a few 85kWh Multicoat red cars that won't be built until March. Also, we have no idea what the cancellation rate or people waiting to finalize is. Basically it's impossible to determine the ratio from the available information.

In an interview 12-18 months ago, Elon estimated 20% 40Kwh, 60% 60Kwh, and 20% 85Kwh. Don't know what his current thoughts are.

I believe 85kWh version is far more popular than they originally estimated. People need/want enough range that they can make road trips.

We had a more recent poll on TMC, excluding signature orders and only counting already finalized orders:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/poll.php?pollid=122&do=showresults

Currently the results are:

P85 41.22%
85 26.72%
60 25.95%
40 6.11%

I got the 40Kw because I could not justify the 60Kw for the type of driving we would typically (95%) do. We live in the bay area. The 40Kw allows us to go to San Francisco. The 40Kw allows to visit the in laws in Santa Rosa (and charge overnight). The Leaf was no comparison because its max was 90 miles and we were right on the edge of comfort for a round trip commuting to San Jose. Phrase the question another way - what would I be getting for another $10, $20, or $30K? I just couldn't say we really needed the additional 70 or 150 miles on a regular basis.

I think it is safe to assume that the numbers are
P85- 9.5%
85- 39.5%
60- 33%
40- 18%
based off the what battery are you getting on the TM forum

The 40kwh Model S should easily have a significant range advantage on the Leaf.

I have an 85kwh Model S, but I'm pretty sure that even the 40kwh would be suitable for my daily weekday driving, where as the Leaf would be a bit risky and you get much less of a car.

To the nearest single significant digit. Give or take 5%. ;)
('Selection bias' - not a random sample)

jkirkebo and cprenzl numbers are not even close to each other, but they both show that 85kWh and 60kWh are more popular than 40kWh and 85kWh more popular than 60kWh. I think this is the truth and not only "selection bias". While 40kWh version is better car than Leaf it does cost more, and range is real issue with that small battery if you do even one longer trip / year.

I think this is a case of "if you can afford greater range, you buy Model S with 85 or 60kWh, if not you buy ICE car". People that can manage with shorter range EV are small minority (Brian H, didn't you post that Model S sells more than Leaf next year? That can't be case of money then, it has to be case of practicality).

Based off my survey,
P85- 19%
85- 55%
60- 21%
40- 5%
so far, will update sometime

Right now your survey is very inaccurate with the small sample. If it gets anywhere near a third of the reservation holders/buyers (6000+) then I think it would be accurate.

Right now cprenzl is sampling Tesla enthusiast who frequent forums.

It is apparent that there are more 85kWh by far, but I don't believe we can know the ratios for certain without Tesla telling us.

If we are using the forums as a source of ratios,I am fairly certain there will be a selection bias that favors 85kWh to 40kWh. 85 kWh are actually getting cars and actually have a great car to talk about other than the poor treatment by Tesla. And I would expect those who are enthusiastic enough to fork out north of 100K will probably be more enthusiastic than those at the lower end.


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