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Model S Reservation Tally

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post the 1) reservation number 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
S 249 (March 23, 2011)
P 3,446 (March 25, 2011)
R 218 (January 2011)

Canada
S 69 (March 24, 2011)
P 143 (March 9, 2011)

Europe/Asia
S 55 (January 18, 2011)*
P 448 (March 28, 2011)

Hong Kong
P 1 (March 23, 2011)

Australia
P 17 (January 21, 2011)

S = Signature Series (Model S)
P = General Production (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family

* = On March 1, 2011, a Tesla member posted, "Got the following info from Tesla some days ago: In Europe they have reduced the Signature down to 500 and approximately 70 have been reserved." While 55 is a confirmed/posted reservation number from this forum, the 70 has yet to be verified by the actual European reservation holder.

I have a test drive scheduled for Sunday at the new store in Toronto... hopefully soon after I will be on the reservation list! The price increase announcement had a direct impact on my plans. I was originally going to reserve a car in the new year (after Christmas bonus!). Can’t wait to get behind the wheel :)Guess we can't say Vroom Vroom anymore, what's the EV equivalent???

Whoosh.......

Bzzzzt, Bzzzt?

bump

Pasted in from the fake dupe thread Whity started:

michiganmodels | November 24, 2012

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,480 (November 23, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 473 (November 17, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 19,883 - November 23, 2012

Net Total: 15,843 - November 23, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

As of November 23, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Nov. 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

November 30 (19,883*1,345)/1,338 = 19,987
December 31 (19,883*1,376)/1,338 = 20,448
.
:) ↑
.
December 31 extrapolation from July 1 base:
13,260 + (19,883 - 13,260)*184/146 = 21,606
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (19,883 - 18,337)*61/23 = 22,437
.
:) ↑

Just a comment on the reservation rates implied in the 3 Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 14.9
.
Since June '12: 45.4
.
Since Oct. '12: 67.2

Just joined the club

P 14,582
US, Virginia

100 since yesterday!

Brian, or whoever keeps track of these things: Can you tell whether more recent reservation holders are less likely to post in these forums? In other words, in addition to the reservation rate accelerating, are we seeing a smaller sample of new reservation holders reporting here and on TMC?

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,582 (November 24, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 473 (November 17, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 19,985 - November 24, 2012

Net Total: 15,945 - November 24, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

DR;
Seems enough are posting now that the volume is way up that there's always a very recent # reported somewhere that michiganmodels picks up on. Long delays in finding one were a problem at lower volumes, but much less now. Seems to be only a few hours lag!

What the case will be when floods of true noobs are buying is hard to tell. The "viewing" counter at TMC often shows scores of 'guests' reading (non-TMC members) for every member, though, so perhaps a few/lots will pile in and report their purchases, enough to keep the count quite current.

Please ignore the other Tally thread.

Looks like the restore after the interruption wiped out the most recent comments on many threads. Pity.

Brian,

I would expect to see more frequent postings because the rate of reservations is increasing. But it also seems like a smaller proportion of reservation holders are finding their way to this forum and TMC.

Hypothetically, let's say that previously you would get one posting to this thread every five days on average, and that, on average, each posting showed a jump of 10 in the reservation sequence. Say, however, that now you get a new posting every day on average, and that each posting showed a jump of 50 in the reservation sequence. That would certainly show that reservations are accelerating. But it might also suggest that a smaller proportion of new reservation holders are reporting in this thread; unless, of course, the other reservation holders see that their numbers are lower than the most recent number posted, and so refrain from posting, even though they otherwise participate in the forum. I'm trying to figure out if you can tell whether these forums are attracting the same proportion of total reservation holders as they did earlier. Does that make sense?

Yes. I believe the earliest adopters would be the most likely to make active use of the discussion boards. Mainstream buyers a few years later not so much.

Nov 21, 2012
Canada
P493

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,582 (November 24, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,005 - November 24, 2012

Net Total: 15,965 - November 24, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

October 24 - 13045
November 24 - 14582
Looks like 1,537 US in the past month

I emailed a Tesla Employee to see if I could get a answer to; If Tesla's reservation demand goes over their supply, will they increase production? No response yet. I'll post response. What do you think, sense we are getting close to 1600 reservations a month?
Christian

Nov 25 2012: 14,639 Model S Production

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,639 (November 25, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 83 (January 4, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,062 - November 25, 2012

Net Total: 16,022 - November 25, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

hi there I have EU reservation R269 as of 10/25/2012 living in Switzerland

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,639 (November 25, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

Switzerland
S 14 (October 20, 2011)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,248 - November 25, 2012

Net Total: 16,208 - November 25, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

This thread is intended to track Model S reservations.

If your reservation number is greater than the reservation number listed below, please post 1) your reservation number / date received 2) region and 3) type: Signature or General Production.

The Model X Reservation Tally can be found here:
http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-x-reservation-tally-1

Here is an updated collection of the numbers posted by members on various threads and forums (i.e., these numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt):

US
SSL 249 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,353 (October 19, 2012)
R 532 (October 30, 2012)
P 14,639 (November 25, 2012)

Canada
SSL 23 (July 18, 2012)
S 177 (September 23, 2012)
P 493 (November 21, 2012)

Europe/Asia
S 500 (July 2, 2012)
R 269 (November 25, 2012)
P 1,718 (November 23, 2012)

UK
S 20 (October 9, 2012)
P 63 (November 8, 2012)

Hong Kong
S 28 (September 27, 2012)
R 2 (July 9, 2011)
P 100 (October 30, 2012)

Australia
S 38 (August 18, 2012)
P 30 (July 13, 2012)

Gross Total: 20,234 - November 25, 2012

Net Total: 16,208 - November 25, 2012*

Official Deliveries: 132 - September 23, 2012**
Official Deliveries: 250 - October 3, 2012 Announcement***
Official Deliveries: 253 - 2012 3rd Quarter - November 5, 2012 Earnings Call ****

* = Net Total subtracts the 3,787 known Signature cancellations/downgrades unit differential & 253 Deliveries announced at November 5th 2012 3rd Quarter Earnings Call (See **** Link)
** = Official Deliveries stated in September 23, 2012 SEC Filing –
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1...3621dex991.htm
*** = Official Deliveries stated in October 3, 2012 Blog Post –
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/update-elon-musk
**** = http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...er%20Final.pdf

S = Signature Series (Model S)
SSL = Signature Special List (Model S)
R = Roadster Owner/Friends and Family
P = General Production (Model S)

The SSL and S designation lists both begin at 1 and count up. There will be a SSL 4 and a S 4 and they will be separated in delivery sequence by about 250 cars or so. A Senior Tesla representative confirmed this counting sequence. There has been no official release of the number of Founders cars. According to a Senior Tesla representative, there were "about" 40 Founders cars.

I emailed a Tesla Employee to see if I could get a answer to; If Tesla's reservation demand goes over their supply, will they increase production? (cprenzl)

In several interviews, Elon has made remarks that 20k units/y is single line, single shift. This would imply that they could go to 60k/y relatively easily by adding two additional shifts to the same line. Elon has referred to this idea and his only concern was that it takes time to hire and train staff b/c he wants the same uncompromised quality output from each shift. Specifically, he said he doesn't want to have "A-Teams" and "B-Teams".

On top, Tesla is planning for producing at least 10k units/y of the Model X. I'm not sure how the Model X fits into the above scheme, but it seems that the robots they use (German products, BTW) are very flexible and can retool on the fly. Thus in my mind, maybe they could interleave the Model X with the Model S on the same line, to use excess capacity (e.g., 2 shifts can produce a total for 40k cars/y, i.e., 10k Model X and 30k Model S, or 15k Model X and 25k Model S, etc.). To be clear: This last paragraph is mostly guesswork on my part.

DouglasR;
I think the higher volume compensates. That is, all mm requires is a reasonably recent #. Unlikely to be the latest, but that's irrelevant as of the next post. So the much higher volume increases the chances of a "hit" on any given and every given day.

As well, I think there are many who have been reading, but held off ordering till things were more stable and production was higher. Paradoxically, since TM is pushing to get the wait list down to 3-4 months, new reservers will get serviced much faster than previous ones were!

Also, many new orders are coming from "guest riders" on newly delivered cars, and I assume most new owners would tell prospects to check out TMC and this forum. So, all in all, the data is likely to get and remain current.

In practice, I've noticed that the "age" of the latest update has dropped from average several days to about 1 day as the ramp-up proceeded.

VB;
That's exactly what I heard. I'm thinking that a second Paint Center would increase options and flexibility the most!

As of November 25, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Nov. 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

November 30 (20,234*1,345)/1,340 = 20,310
December 31 (20,234*1,376)/1,340 = 20,778
.
:) ↑
.
December 31 extrapolation from July 1 base:
13,260 + (20,234 - 13,260)*184/148 = 21,930
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (20,234 - 18,337)*61/25 = 22,966
.
:) ↑
___________
Daily Reservation rates implied in the 3 Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 15.1 :) ↑

.
Since June '12: 47.1 :) ↑

.
Since Oct. '12: 75.9 :) ↑

Correction:

As of November 25, 2012, projected cumulative reservations and deliveries by end Nov. 2012, and Dec. 2012, using uncorrected count, and taking Apr. 27/09 as start date:

November 30 (20,234*1,345)/1,340 = 20,310
December 31 (20,234*1,376)/1,340 = 20,778
.
:) ↑
.
December 31 extrapolation from July 1 base:
13,260 + (20,234 - 13,260)*184/148 = 21,930
:) ↑
.
December 31, 2012 extrapolation from October 31 base:
18,337 + (20,234 - 18,337)*61/25 = 22,966
.
:) ↑
___________
Daily Reservation rates implied in the 3 Dec. 31 projections above:

Since Apr. '09: 15.1 :) ↑
.
Since June '12: 47.1 :) ↑
.
Since Oct. '12: 75.9 :) ↑


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