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Tesla Model S future sales figures in California. Will the market share of the Tesla Model S in California keep on rising?Yes/No

Out of the 38 million Californians, how many of them will buy a Tesla Model S this year and/or in the coming years?

How many Tesla Model S EV's will be sold and delivered to customers in California per year?

How many production Lines had the freemont factory rom for? ;-)

Had = has

I think as from 2014, on average about 2,000 Tesla Model S EV's will be sold and delivered to customers in California per year. Is that a realistic number/figure?

No Benz. California is buying about a third of the Model S's sold in the USA and more than 3,000 have already been sold. For a production run of 20,000, with some going to Europe, we can probably expect to see 5,000 to 6,000 CA sales in 2013.

Sounds about right.

@ djm12 & Brian H

As from the start of the production of the Tesla Model S in June 2012 up to March 31st 2013, about 3,000 cars have been delivered to customers in California.

And in the remaining 9 months of 2013 up to an extra 3,000 cars could be delivered to customers in California. And the total could add up to 6,000 cars indeed.

Is it possible to call these first 6,000 customers in California the early adopters from California?

But I think as from 2014, on average about 2,000 Tesla Model S EV's will be sold and delivered to customers in California per year. Is that a realistic number/figure?

Remember the 100% luxury car sales share article? In some locations, TM seems to have captured the whole segment's market. If you test drive a Merc, BMW, and a Tesla, which you gonna buy?

@ Brian H

Thanks for the link. I do not remember having read this article before. But it sure is a good one.

Do you know where I can find the sales figures of cars per month in California. And I am only interested in the sales figures of the Tesla Model S in California. Why California? Because this is the home ground of Tesla Motors. Here they have to be the best, before they can claim to be the best elswhere.

I would like to use this data in a graph, just to see if the line of this graph keeps going up each month, and for how long? Just like the share price of stocks.

Who does publish each month the salse figures of cars of each brand in California?

I am guessing that California's share will continue to be about a 1/3 of production, especially with more and more of them on the road in Bay Area and LA (due to carpool lane rights) so I would guess 7,000 per year and more as production increases in later years. A 1% share of the California market which I think is doable in the near term (by 2020) would add up to about 300,000 or 15 years of total production at current rates... Looks like they will have to be adding capacity soon!

Add to this the friendly reception of the MS in Nederlands and Norge (guessing that 1 and 2.5% market shares are possible by 2020 there), doubling capacity for 2014 looks like less of a optimal projection and more like a necessity to keep up with demand...

Any significant increase in fuel price will mean even greater demand.

The sales model works so well because the car sells itself.

My guess for 2014 two production lines for MS one for MX...

Benz, probably the best info you can get is from the center of sustainable energy which administers the CA rebate applications. Here is a link, but there is also more info on the site.
http://energycenter.org/index.php/incentive-programs/clean-vehicle-rebat...

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11839422/2/tesla-100-market-share-in-sili...

The Street article has a Broder's conviction that Tesla does poorly in cold weather:

"The bad news here is a car such as Tesla won't sell as well in North Dakota or Finland."

which contradicts with Tesla's real life experience:

"...is designed and tested to operate well in both hot and cold climates. Indeed, our highest per capita sales are in Norway, where customers drive our cars during Arctic winters in permanent midnight, and in Switzerland, high among the snowy Alps. About half of all Tesla Roadster and Model S customers drive in temperatures well below freezing in winter. "

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/most-peculiar-test-drive

@ FLsportscarenth...

Wow, you really are talking big numbers. And I sure would like to see that happen. But I personally like to be more cautious about these kinds of predictions, because otherwise I just might get disappointed if the numbers do not go as high as I predicted that they would. But your massive predictions surely do appeal to me. And the sooner more production lines are realised the better it will be for our predictions to come true.

Just ordered my S this week here in The Netherlands.
Asked two sales guys independent. My question was how many S type will be on the road here by the end of the year. One estimated 800, the other came up to 1000.
Realize that the final assambly facility here in The Netherlands (for final assambly for all European deliverys)is still not operational.(Estimatedthis month or nextmonth)

By the way, you are lucky in the US, prices here are higer than in the US. For the car and the options as well!

If anything, California market share may actually increase as the California Supercharger network grows and more stores are opened. People are becoming much more aware of EVs here. Now if we can just do something about the EV haters at Fox News.

3000 in CA.. hmmm.... and that's without advertising.

Couldn't imagine a Ford, Chevy, Merc or BMW trying to sell a new model without telling anyone about it. (Meaning the general public)

I know that here in Silicon Valley, the MS is the must have "gadget", so I expect sales to continue to do well, at least in this area. There is definitely a network effect with MS adoption - people hear great things about it from multiple friends/co-workers/etc, and that causes them to make the leap into MS as well.

Avilo: I've heard 1800 for Norway, so 800-1000 for the Netherlands sound reasonable. That leaves about 1000-1500 for the rest of Europe (minus UK), depending on cancellation&conversion rate.

When Elon Musk was at the Geneva Motorshow in March this year, he said that 5,000 to 7,000 Model S EV's would be shipped to Europe this year.

Reservations for Europe this far is about 4400 minus sequence holes (cancellations & conversions). So they need to sell another 2000 or so to meet that goal. They'd better get the rate increasing then, at the current 11 cars/day it'll take half a year.

Maybe Elon was expecting those numbers to grow more rapidly.

But how did you get hold to those 4,400?

I think European sales will increase once Model S deliveries start.

Still now, most people I talk to here in Switzerland haven't ever heard of TM. Let alone a Model S. In connection with the opening of Iron Man 3 (main character being compared to Elon, or vice versa), a major Swiss newspaper published an online article last month, stating that TM was trying to construct a mass production EV that should become available in two years. LMAO big time here. But lack of awareness and all the prejudice that comes with it are part of the reality behind "no advertising".

Once the cars are on the road, once we can all work through the dozens of people wanting a test drive, awareness and sales will grow rapidly. Even without advertising.

Avilo;
The US is "lucky" because the taxes are lower, not because the price is lower.

Benz: At least 3600 P-reservations, 500 signatures and around 300 R's.

@ Brian

The sales tax in California is 8% to 10%.

Link: http://www.dmv.ca.gov/pubs/reg_hdbk/app1a_county_and_city.htm

And the sales tax in The Netherlands is 21% !!!

We pay a lot more tax on cars than the citizens of California.

Concentrate, Benz. That was my point.

That is absolutely correct Brian, it's your point. I only thought that I should highlite your point by adding some figures so that everybody can see how much the difference really is.

Brain H: Lower taxes in the US is correct...


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