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Tesla Viability

Good to laugh at, since there doesn't appear to be a single fact in evidence, or gram of intelligence in the author's head.

Outdated information and some of it simply incorrect. Implying that the price change affects people who have ordered the car but not received it is simply dishonest.

It is true that Tesla, like any other young company is risky.
However, his calculations are crude and his estimates for cash available at the end of the 4th quarter is, I believe, wrong. I look forward to Tesla proving yet another blogger wrong when the release the 4th quarter data.

TM disclosed early in the Q that they would not meet prior delivery guidance, and dialed back expectations. Then early in December many of us received emails indicating a rush to get cars transferred by month end. And what happened? We did see a flurry of deliveries, but we also know lots of customers who jumped at the chance to be pushed ahead. I think we can say with a high degree of likelihood that TM fell short, as many customers waited for year end calls that didn't come.

TM had the right objective but probably bit off more than it could handle logistically while ramping up the first full production quarter. A good example is the apparently large number of deliveries where no delivery specialist was available to the customer. I don't see this as indicative of a major problems, as it is normal growth pain. However, the actual numbers may be ugly for share performance. The delivery results and pattern established at year end will directly affect both the numbers and perception of year end cash and burn rate, so TM shares may see near term downside.

Stocks don't stay flat - they go up or down based on anticipated underlying performance. Nearly every stock is at sometime during the year a good short or a good long. Good companies and good stocks are not always the same thing... I am considering shorting against the box....

I doubt TM fell short. In fact, based on VINs and other info, I expect they exceeded the upper range marginally >3,000 in 2012. And the production rate targets have likely blown projections out of the water. And reservations even moreso.

I think the Q4 report is going to look pretty damn good.

I agree with Brian that the 4th qtr numbers should look good (at least meet the reduced expectations).

The item in the quarterly report that can have a big impact on the stock price is a change in future projections. The current forecast is for 20k cars in 2013. If TM announces that based on an increase in reservations, they have (will) scale up production to 25k or 30k in 2013 it would have a huge impact on the stock price.

The last report I have seen (12/14/2012) show there are still 29millon shares short interest, 22 trading days. If the out look is now positive and the shorts try to cover in a hurry it could cause a huge spike in the price, though probably temporary.

Pungoteague_Dave - Go for it. We're all watching

I am shortng against the box only (eg hedging shares already owned). I hope you are correct Brian, but it seems clear that a lot of people were expecting cars in December that could not be delivered.

Of course, there are probably about 13,000 people out there that are unhappy they couldn't get their cars in December.
Delivering VINs in the range of 2700-3000 indicates to me that they sold at least 2500 this year, which is the low end of their estimate. I don't see them missing the 2500 range.

"Expecting" since when? Last summer? This fall? November? And it seems they are out-numbered by people who did get cars in December who were astonished and delighted to do so. Who are actively replicating themselves, by their own accounts.

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