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Model X will make the Model S look like chopped liver...

Tesla Motors’ electric crossover sport utility Model X vehicle will make a huge splash in the automobile market next year, with potential to be far more successful at a much better value than the Tesla Model S luxury electric sedan, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a research note Wednesday.

The Tesla Model X will make the Model S luxury electric sedan look like chopped liver and silence comments that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a “one-hit wonder” with the Model S, he said.

“We’d be disappointed if the Model X did not sweep every major Car of the Year award on offer by the automotive media,” Jonas said. Tesla Motors has learned many lessons since launching the Model S and has far greater financial and technical resources now that it’s pouring into the Tesla Model X line, he said.

“Additionally, many key suppliers who refused to work with Tesla at the time of the Model S will participate in commercializing the Tesla Model X,” Jonas said. “It is in Tesla’s interest to under-sell expectations of the Model X’s capabilities while it is still in the early stages of the global roll-out of the Model S."

Tesla originally planned to launch the Model X in 2014 but delayed the debut by six to nine months. The company has been ramping up production capacity in recent months. 

Jonas thinks Tesla Model X sales can pass sales of Model S in global volume by the end of 2016 if not 2018, given the size of the crossover and sport-utility vehicle market in the U.S. and China.

Source: International Business Times


I welcome the Model X to make my Model S look bad... that means my stock will go up (perhaps enough that I can also buy a Model X !)

The Model X will accelerate the momentum that Tesla already has.

I am just really hoping the Falcon doors don't come across as gimmicky. Something that different has to have some serious functionality to overcome the novelty aspect of it.

I appreciate the enthusiasm, but not even a Tesla can make the Model S look like chopped liver. Two different vehicles for two different markets, and each will have its place.

And then we'll get the Model 3 - and *every* other manufacturer will run for cover...

I think many MS owners are going to add a MX to their "fleet". We are.

I'm not an industry guy, but I do recall someone saying that the BMW, Audi, and Porsche SUVs outsell the sedans 2:1 or something like that, so I think we can expect to see a lot of MX demand. Current orders will explode when the first ones hit the street. And if they every have them available for test drives...

I do think there will be some people that would have bought the MS if the MX were not available, but in the infamous words of a former Secretary of State, "What difference does it make?" My guess is both have similar margins, can roll off the same production line - why should Tesla care whether someone buys and S or X?

SUVs are mostly an American market thing, X will sell best here, less so in Europe and China compared to S, no?

Jonas appears to be among the growing number of analysts that get the fact that Tesla isn't a car company.
It's makes battery-powered, networked computers that you can drive around in and the Model S drives insanely well. This is a new ball game. The Model X won't make everyone happy. It won't have a roof rack. But it looks
Iike it will join the Model S as members of a revolutionary new family of safe, highly efficient and intelligent vehicles that are fun to drive. All Tesla has to do is execute their plan.

Can't wait to get mine.

We are also going to buy a MX - BUT the biggest hurdle will be substantially shorter range than the MS - TM has decided not to change battery technology at all for the upcoming X, and is offering the same consumer options for kWh (85 & 60). By definition range will be down given substantially more frontal area and more weight and drivetrain drag due to more seats, added motor, and larger envelope.

Unless they have something up their seat that is undisclosed, in which case they will have to offer a revised reservation process for people who have already signed up - and would be a death blow to the battery swap concept, which depends on uniformity of content and form - to the extent that the battery isn't identical, more battery confusion will ensue.

Why did I suddenly have a craving for matzoh ball soup and herring in sour cream as I read that headline?

PD - Good to hear from you again. I think you and I should have a friendly bet regarding the range of the X. I don't think it will be any more than 7% less. Want to take that bet?

Nothing big, maybe a Tesla dog leash! :)

I think the 'Falcon" doors will make it alot easier to get in and out of the back seats then the S.

"Chopped Liver"? I wish he hadn't said that. The Model X has a lot of potential but "Chopped Liver"?
Any decrease in range will be seen as a set-back. I'll bet on 300.

I think Consumer Reports will have a hard time explaining why they rated the Tesla Model X 120 out of 100 next year... ;-)

The Model X is going to sell like crazy. Other automakers in the market segment have crossovers that outsell their sedans 3:1 -- on the low end of the scale. Some easily manage a 4:1 ratio.

Model S and Model X do not really compete. If you don't understand why, you don't understand consumer segmentation. Which is ok, just don't pretend to :)

I love my MS. Wife wants a MX. Different cars but I think MX will outsell the MS. No self respecting woman, and many men too, would not want that super cool SUV. The soccer moms who drive a Cayenne or Odysessy would not be able to resist it soon as they see the falcon wing doors on the MX parked next to them open up.

Pungoteague_Dave: please listen closely to to the webcast of the recent 2Q14 results conference call, if you haven't already. I believe that I heard the following:

1. Elon Musk acknowledging the large number of people with Model X reservations with little or no information about the vehicle's features. Implied is that we don't really know yet what the battery options will be.
2. Elon Musk stating that heretofore Tesla has been an open book but now the company has some tricks up its sleeve that they are not revealing.
3. J. B. Straubel mentioning possible changes in battery cell form factor. It wouldn't take much to create a 100+ kWh battery pack.

Please correct me if I am wrong but we don't know the whole story yet and may be pleasantly surprised.

I love my MS - and I love chopped liver - on rye with onions and chicken fat! What's his problem????

georgehawley - Couldn't you have posted that after I talked Pungoteague_Dave into the bet? :)

I owe you.
I feel like chopped liver.

Predictions, not necessarily new or bold:
-@100kwh-ish battery option for X (and S), same pack and cell size but denser chemistry
-AWD improves efficiency to offset highway driving reductions from weight and larger frontal area, city efficiency takes more of a hit but who cares; also made available for S brings 85 S to 285 miles range and 100ish S to 350
-one Gigafactory selected and proceeds this year, second Gigafactory proceeds late 2015 or 2016.
-X performance gets low 4's for 0-60, AWD performance S gets in the 3's
-X tow rating 5000lbs or greater
-X has rear view cameras not mirrors or at least the option(requires regulatory change but that is a matter of time and should have already been done given benefits to EVs and meeting CAFE), S gets the same

Denser chemistry? Dream on. Maybe battery cells that are a little taller???
AWD in M S? Don't fix what isn't broke.
I want my MX NOW!

A honeycomb shaped (6 sided) battery could be more efficient with equally spaced cooling channels. Could get to 100 KW in the same space. That may not be considered until the new gigafactory production comes on line however.

I think one of the big tricks up their sleeve is that the other "potential" areas TM is starting to break ground on for the Gigafactory are actually future areas. They are playing it smart right now to get the best deal, but I think we'll see more ACTUAL Gigafactories by 2016. Especially since TM isn't actually a car company.... :)

Elon is a genius.

@Koz | AUGUST 6, 2014

"Predictions, not necessarily new or bold:"
"-@100kwh-ish battery option for X (and S), same pack and cell size but denser chemistry"

@georgehawley | AUGUST 7, 2014
"Denser chemistry? Dream on. Maybe battery cells that are a little taller???

JBS has strongly suggested that Tesla has already developed refinements to its battery chemistry that could be used to make a 100kWh MX/MS battery pack. I see no reason to doubt that they can introduce such a battery option with for the initial MX, to be followed by using this improved battery as an option for MS. And I believe this can be done without changing the dimensions of the cells.

Actually, I suspect that this battery improvement may be what Elon was referring to in the CC when he said Tesla has more good news than they discussed in the CC.

For Gen3, I'd guess that they will use battery cells that are taller and wider as JBS has discussed.

Go Tesla!
Ron :)

From chopped liver to batteries, food.. to food for thought.

It's a given that power sources for Tesla cars will improve over time. Better range, lighter weight, longevity, cost... will all improve. Time shows this.

Knowing that the only question is, "Is today's battery good enough for me?" If so, buy. If not, wait. Also, tells us not to fret about replacement battery costs in the future. Those will be cheaper and better batteries.

I think within the available lifespan of this car, there will be one paradigm shifting event in powering electric vehicles. Not sure what will catch on and win... maybe drop-in replacement hydrogen powered super capacitor cell?! Who knows what... but I'll take one of those when they're available.

Within ten years something dramatic is going to happen with portable electricity.

Tesla is probably the last new car I'll be buying for my life, and I plan to hang onto it. Because its easily maintained and upgraded due to its design.

This is total speculation on my part but, having two motors might create some new posibilities to manage energy usage. There could be an economy/range mode where a single motor is used for coasting, plus other tricks that nobody outside Tesla has though about yet. To use an ironic analogy, almost like an "all-electric hybrid". Where today's fuel/electric hybrids use their electric motors to conserve fuel, the X could use a similar approach to conserve the battery.

The Model S specs say that it has a "single speed fixed gear with 9.73:1 reduction ratio". Perhaps the Model X could have one motor/gear box with different gear ratio than the other or one of the gear boxes with variable ratio, allowing software to manage the mix. Who knows? This could enable an almost-as-fast, bigger/clunkier X to get more out of the same 85kWh battery pack than the S, and THAT would be a chop-liver moment.

Then again, who knows? We will have to wait.

Those who reference revised battery chemistry missed that Straubel was referring to Gen III. The fact is that TM recently signed up with Panasonic for a specific supply of two billion model 18650 Li battery cells - a contract that runs through 2017. Remember that until the gigafactory, TM has zero involvement in producing batteries or battery chemistry of any kind. All they do is assemble and package batteries sourced from Panasonic. And Panasonic is under contract to sell the exact same 18650 cells we already have, nothing new. I wish it weren't so, but it is nearly impossible that TM can release a higher kWh battery in the next two years.

The front motor could be used to regen a lot such that the battery was charging a lot and ipso fatso, you'd never need to stop and charge the battery.. Now that would be a chopped liver moment. Elon has admitted how difficult it is to have form and function in an SUV, so it's doubtful there will be any comparison in the looks department.

Since they are using the same battery capacity, they have to reduce weight. Significantly.

Otherwise there is no way TMX can have the same range as TMS.

I don't know I kind of like it being chopped liver The model S reminds me of a badass car specially my black one with tinted windows riding low and wide " ) the model X Will never touch that

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